The FL Sire Stakes – In Reality
GP Race #7 1 1/16m Dirt Stake
Purse $300.000 For Two Year Olds Foaled In FL.
1 Outlaw Kid Smokey Stover Vasquez M A 120 —
A five-race maiden yet still working as well or better than most of this field including the stakes winners…… that is just how tough it is to rely on works to give us a chance of finding the winners. So, with works merely giving us a clue how can we assess this one after five defeats at maiden level? Well, he is drawn one which can be a great advantage, he is trained by one of the best in the game and his works suggest some improvement so whilst on paper you would have to say he may struggle to match the best here there are the usual pointers which can be used for the reason he breaks his maiden today.
2 Inviting Mb Stables Ayuso A 120 —
The good old random draw has put the two stable runners next to each other here and but for one slot would have had all three lined up together. It is certainly an advantage in having three balls in the hopper so which one of these stable mates will come out on top and therefore have the biggest chance to win? Well, this one could be the best on paper. Placed at grade one and grade two he has faced the wrath of the draw monster in 4 of his 5 stakes appearances and whilst his last two haven’t been as good he has run with enough merit to probably make him favorite for this race. Drawn wide in his last three he was taken all the way back in all of them and finished on strongly so with today’s draw I expect the AI to have him handier and that could be the deciding factor.
3 Tough Call Mb Stables Bridgmohan S X 120 —
Beaten just a neck in the FL Sire Stakes Affirmed last time he was running that seven furlongs like he will love this trip and he gets a handy draw today to run a similar race. It is hard to see him beating his stable mates, but he could easily help the trainer dominate the top three.
4 Go Van Gogh TwinTowersRacing Panici L 120 —
Another five-race maiden and another that has some works that easily measure up to the best in the race. On his balance of form, I expected him to win at least one of his last two races and the fact that he hasn’t makes me question his desire. Having said that this is the giant killing stable and it won’t be the first time they get a maiden winner in a stakes race or one that wasn’t my first choice.
5 Falling For You Mb Stables Gallardo A A 120 —
Won the grade one Breeders Futurity but then disappointed in the BC Juvenile and it is somewhat difficult to weigh up that form as both were from similar draws and both races were run with similar splits. What I am saying I guess is your guess is as good as mine as to which colt we will see today, if the former turns up, he wins, if the latter then a top four place is still possible and probable.
6 Key To The Forest Alydar Stables Pennington F 120 —
Finished well enough in the FL Sire Stakes Affirmed to suggest this trip will suit and he was close enough at the end to Tough Call to give him a good chance here of getting in among the Mb Stables runners. The dark horse in the field and he would be my choice to be in the top three.
7 Pie Pie Night Rider Stables Castellano J J 120 —
A winner on debut he has struggled to follow that up but ran well enough in the FL Sires Stakes Affirmed last time to give him a chance here. The draw is a little concerning as he has generally done better form more inside type draws but there is no reason why he wouldn’t be a place chance.
8 Capiche Fractious Elliott S 120 —
The stable has been in great form this year and they have some nice juveniles in their yard. It took a gelding operation to get this one firing but he was a very impressive maiden winner last time and this wide gate may help him to get to the front and where he likes to be. If there is one that comes a little bit from left field, it is this one.
9 Union Jack Asgar Rosario J 120 —
Favorite to win the FL Sire Stakes Affirmed last time he ran a poor race from a wide gate after attempting to go up on the speed. The wide gate is generally successful if they go forwards or backwards and the trainer may prompt the AI to take this one back today to see how he fairs as a closer after the disappointment last time.
SUMMARY
This has the looks of an Mb one two three but that sort of domination hasn’t been as prevalent this year so there are a couple that may spoil the party. There is no point at looking at the works as they are all pretty much the same over six furlongs, but the mile works can often separate them and because of that I am going for Inviting to get a good run from his draw and prevail today.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
