The BEL Derby Invitational (Grade 1)- $1,250.000
BEL- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Quarter on the Inner Turf
July 9, 2016
In 2014, the BEL Derby Invitational officially became one of the top races of the year, especially for turf horses. That year, the race became different, being extended by a furlong to it’s current distance and seeing its purse increase from $500.000 to $1,250.000. Furthermore, that large increase is a far cry from the purse amounts of the early days which hovered around $300.000. So, for two years, its been run at that purse level, but we’re still looking for our first exclusive winner of the first place share of that purse. You see, we’ve had two consecutive dead heats for the win, so no one’s really been able to enjoy the full winner’s share yet. Maybe this will be that year!
Going back to 2014, our pair of winners were Ashkalani and Turon Warrior, and they ended up being two of the favorites heading into BC Turf that season. Ashkalani would win that race while Turon Warrior finished fifth and is still running strong. The co-winners in 2015 were Desolation Island and Chrystal Pip. Desolation Island would run second in the BC Turf while Chrystal Pip took a shot at the BC Classic, and finished 7th. After a recent private sale on Chrystal Pip, the two are now stablemates in the Mb Stables barn. This year, the race will run for the 13th time, and we’ll see if we can have a single winner in the race. It’s a great field that has seen several different paths taken in order to get here. It’s a full field of 14 with three other also eligibles. The field is evenly matched enough to see if we can get the dead heat hat trick, but let’s hope for a single winner! Here’s the field!
#1- Brain Power (Mb Stables, ridden by J Talamo)- Still rather lightly raced, Brain Power got his career off to a strong start early, winning the first three races of his career. They were all on the turf, with the third win being in the $50.000 TX Heritage Stakes, a race in which he defeated Eastern Townships. Off of those wins, it was on to the KYD trail, and Brian Power got off to a promising start there when he placed second in the SUN Derby in late March. Just a couple weeks later, it was off to the SA Derby, and he would only beat one in that race. His most recent start was on the dirt as well, so Brain Power will enjoy seeing the grass again. He’s never lost on turf, and he is working extremely well in preparation for this race. Not to mention, he’s got this nice inside post to work with, so if he can maintain it over the ten furlongs, it’d hard to imagine him not posing a real threat to win. If his odds climb, and they might, take a shot.
#2- Compress (Cherrytree Hill Farm, ridden by R J Albarado)- After such an outstanding season throughout KYD prep races, and his running in both the KYD and BEL, it’s easy to forget that Compress started his career out racing well on the turf. Like Brain Power, Compress is undefeated and three for three while on the grass, one of which was a victory in the Grade 3 Dania B. So now with the TC over with, and Compress disappointing a bit, the trainer is set to begin the next stage of Compress’ career. While there is no denying that he is one of the top threats to win in this race, the bigger question is which direction will the trainer take with Compress for the rest of the year? Will it be the BC Turf, or will he push for the Classic? The result today, either way, will play a big part of that decision.
#3- Classic Cliche (Blushing Meadows, ridden by M E Smith)- A lightly raced gelding that has only made five starts in his career, that is clearly hitting his best stride now. Alright, there’s one classic cliche about Classic Cliche, but its true. Something seemed to happen between his third and fourth starts, because ever since he broke his maiden, he has shown tremendous improvement. After picking up win number one, he wasted no time getting his next victory, as he would come from behind to win the $200.000 CA-bred Snow Chief over the likes of Lord Byron (who won the IA Derby last week) and Know How Skeleton (who lost his ability to breed last week). He’s never seen so many good horses at one time like this, and if wants to come from behind again, you have to consider the effects of traffic. That said, I like him, and would not be surprised if he got the job done here, cliche or not.
#4- Valiant Charge (Threshold, ridden by V Espinoza)- A very consistent colt by Brilliant who has never failed to hit the board in his career. Out of seven career starts, four have ended up with him in the winner’s circle. Those are also the same four races he has been in that were not at the stake level. He’s had a couple good showing when running at the best, including a third place run in his last start, the Grade 2 American Turf at CD. Was it a great field that day? The jury may be out on that, but Valiant Charge was within a length of victory there. The key for him will be all about distance, as his last few starts show that he has just run out of time at the end, and here he will run further then he ever has before.
#5- Black Mach One (Pan Farms, R Alvarado Jr)- The three year old campaign has been a disappointment for the Plucky Mach colt who was heavily touted by his breeder last year. Since then, there have been two sales, including the one from Gdp Inc to Smokey Stover for $600.000. He would never be able to live up to that price tag, but Smokey may have done well in picking up $300.000 for him in the recent sale to Pan Farms. In this race, he will run for Pan for the first time. There’s potential here, we know that it and have seen it. I’m just not really sure this is the right race for him, but I am wrong often, so you never know. I still think he should be on the main track.
#6- Rare Coincidence (Mb Stables, ridden by D Moran)- The Chai Latte gelding worked very nicely right here on the fourth of July, and overall, you have to impressed with his works. On the race track, he has always been able to back it up, as he has won four out of six, including what I feel was a stunning effort in the SF Mile back in late April. He won that in an HRP-rout of three lengths, against the likes of Breiterate and Eve Of Destruction. Sure, the weight allowance helped, but that was a great race in which he back up in his next start, which is also his most recent one, when he ran a strong third in the PEN Mile (Grade 3). The distance is new to him, but I see no reason to be concerned.
#7- Pinstripes Proud (Aer Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- At BEL, you can expect that Pinstripes Proud will draw some wagers from Yankees fans, but the Proud Chai colt should otherwise be a longshot in this race. He’s put together some real nice turf works at PRX, but he is running into a group of rivals here that he has never seen before. After finally breaking his maiden on St. Patrick’s day, Pinstripes Proud has a solid second at PRX, and then won here in his last start a few weeks ago in an optional claimer. This is quite a promotion from all of that, but then again the next horse on this pulled something similar off.
#8- Gallivant (Joshua Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- If Pinstripes Proud wants motivation on making a successful graded stakes debut, then he needs to look no further then his neighbor in the starting gate to the outside. Up until his last year, Gallivant had success running at tracks like PRX and TAM in allowances, taking two of four. That form led to his entry in the Grade 3 PEN Mile, and he did not back down from the more experienced runners, and pulled out the victory. In that, he defeated Rare Coincidence, Lure, and Broomsticks Heir, all of whom he sees here again, but they’ll all get more ground in this longer event. His works show that he is ready to pick up where he left off, and this would be a big score for him today.
#9- Lure (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- The natural thing to do when looking at Lure is to compare his most recent race to Gallivant, as the two of them were involved in a photo finish in their last race, the Grade 3 PEN Mile. In that, Gallivant was able to hold off Lure, but Lure did seem as though he might have been a little better in the stretch there. Lure will get two furlongs in which to work this time. A concern of mine with him is that every now and then he seems to have a race where he is flat. There is no time for that here, but as long as he is shows his true ability, he should be fine.
#10- Eastern Townships (Harrell Racing, S X Bridgmohan)- Picked up the third win of his career in April, when he scored a win in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes over the likes of Lure and the reigning BC Juvenile Turf champion, Icicle Dawn. Prior to the that, he had a nice run in the always very strong FL Sire Stakes, including one race in which he was fourth and beaten by Champagne Supernova and Atomic Twister. He was sold in mid-May however, going from Chili King Stables to Harrell Racing for $225.000. In their first race together, he ran into the most underrated horse on HRP, Jamfest, and finished second, with a career high SRF of 101. That wasn’t good enough for the trainer, who gelded him after the race. Ouch! Don’t know how much more was wanted in that one, and if he runs like that again here, he has a great shot, gelded or not.
#11- B K D Express (Drabfantasy, ridden by R Bejarano)- One of two entries by Drabfantasy in the race, and each of them are making just their third career start. For B K D Express, he did not need to fool around with winning a maiden race. Third was enough in that type of race before he moved into graded company and won the Grade 3 Red Bank Stakes at MTH last month on soft turf. As nice as that is, he had a six pound weight allowance on a field that really wasn’t graded caliber. On top of all this, his work two back at PRX does not breed optimism that he can beat the likes of what he sees here today, but you never know.
#12- Blue Guy (Grimley, ridden by M Franco)- After providing a great run for his trainer throughout the TC preps and races, Blue Guy is moved to the turf for the first time here. A win in the TAM Derby would end up being his top performance of the year during this period, but I also thought he ran decently in the BEL as well, and if there was one less quarter mile in that race (aka today’s distance), he may have had a much better result. In the BEL, he and Compress were separated by just .01 seconds, so that may make you think if you like Compress you have to like Blue Guy. However, Compress is experienced on the turf, and we don’t know what to expect from Blue Guy yet. There are no public works on the turf since last fall, so can’t form an opinion on that aspect.
#13- Broomsticks Heir (Drabfantasy, ridden by L Contreras)- The second of the two entries for Drabfantasy is the one that I expect to give him the greater shot at victory. Like his stablemate, he only has two wins to his credit thus far. In his May debut, he was allowed to run against fellow maidens, and quickly disposed of three other NY-breds at this track on soft turf. Off of that race, he was sent to the Grade 3 PEN Mile, he met three of those he sees today, and placed fourth, with the three he sees today (Gallivant, Lure, and Rare Coincidence) being those that beat him. He was the pacesetter in that race, and those three either stalked him or came from midpack to get by him in a race that is a quarter mile shorter. You have to think a tactical adjustment will be needed to beat them in a longer race, but he can do it. Works are good and leave me wondering if he might be real good on the main track.
#14- Lunar Blaze (Pan Farms, ridden by J R Velazquez)- After some decent performances in less fields for his breeder, Allinthegate, Lunar Blaze was sold in private sales to Pan Farms for $40.000. To Pan’s credit, Lunar Blaze has turned his career around since the sale. The addition of bute for this first race under the new trainer likely played a role, but Pan was also able to get his career going nicely by moving him back to the dirt. Their first race together was an aggressive placement, as he was sent to the $200.000 Eddie Stakes and topped four CA-breds. If that was unconvincing, he erased doubts by winning the Grade 3 Day Mile Stakes and the Grade 2 Stephens, to make it three-for-three in the new silks. So now, it’s back to the turf, and going longer then he ever has before. Being aggressive has already worked out well once.
Prediction: 8-2-6-9
— NS
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
