July 8, 2016
Started in 1887 and run at various racetracks in New York State, the Grade III Dwyer Stakes is named for a pair of prominent brothers who owned horses and racetracks and contributed Hall Of Fame entrants and Classic winners to much of the racing spectrum. It was originally run at their Gravesend Racetrack with the first winner being their own colt Hanover, a champion sire many times over, and future Hall Of Fame entrants Emperor of Norfolk, Peter Pan and Fair Play all proved victorious.
Many horses ranked in the Top 100 U.S. Racehorses of the 20th Century won the Dwyer in their careers including Roamer, Grey Lag, Twenty Grand, Johnstown and the best of them all, Man o’ War, not to mention Triple Crown winners Gallant Fox, Omah, Whirlaway and Assault. The 1950’s saw the duo of Native Dancer and Nashua while Damascus was best in 1967 and Stage Door Johnny best in 1968, ending the Triple Crown bid of Forward Pass. Coastal won the 1979 edition but is best known for his upset of Spectacular Bid in the Belmont Stakes, Conquistador Cielo won in 1982 en route to Horse Of The Year honours and Holy Bull proved his might in 1994 to become the last Hall of Fame entrant to win this important three-year-old event.
As a traditional prep for both the Grade II Dandy and the Grade I Travers, the Dwyer holds its place for those who might not have gone on the TC trail but HRP has never really seen that progression for any of its winners with Liberate My Madness using this as a jump start to a win in the Grade I Kings Bishop instead. Americanus was able to win the Dandy after his 2008 win but that was the last race he won while T S Indy was able to score in both the Grade I Haskell and the CT Classic after his 2011 wire-to-wire score. Purses have risen substantially in the past few seasons and that has led to some bigger and more impressive fields and this year, 10 top sophomores will take to the one-turn at BEL including the KYD winner and a juvenile sensation who are both trying to get back to their winning ways after a tough Spring grind.
1-Palestinian (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
A series of wins in ungraded stakes company made Palestinian one of the horses to watch going into the TC but he was unable to duplicate that success against the best of his division and after a lackluster finish in the PRK, he will try to regroup off the freshening against an easier field. He has worked beautifully in preparation and finally gets a decent post position to work from so look for that return to a front-running style with the hope that he can easily handle the distance under a new and very experienced jockey.
Analysis-Inside draw will help him finally get a good early position
Fair Odds-5/2
2-Ratan (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Ratan got back to a route of ground last time out at FL and scored an impressive wire-to-wire win over four rivals but this is a whole new ballgame and with that being his best effort to date, he will have to improve even more to hit the board against much better sophomores. He certainly was quick off the gate and kept right on going but will face more pressure here and if he gets caught in a duel, it might be a little too much for him to handle off a single one-mile workout that was a little uninspiring.
Analysis-Big jump in class leaves him vulnerable for a bounce
Fair Odds-10/1
3-Foreigner (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Australia Wide)
Purchased for $75.000 off two huge wins at PEN, Foreigner finally earned back his keep with a victory in the Commentator at BEL against older runners but that effort came in the mud and he will have to show his mettle over a fast track if he wants to be counted amongst the best of his division. Stalking the inside speed will be his best chance of hitting the board and he comes from a barn who knows how to win these types of races but workouts have been uninspired and that will inflate his odds to at least a reasonable level.
Analysis-Would be better over a sloppy or muddy track
Fair Odds-8/1
4-Doctor Moriarty (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
Doctor Moriarty has made a steady progression up the ranks and was solid when third in the Grade III Day Mile but the wheels came off in the Easy Goer over the one-turn at BEL and he will have to show much more without blinkers and get into the race much quicker. The speed rating was solid and workouts at both BEL and MTH have been dynamite so the main factor is the course and if he can handle BEL, he should be able to make another move forward.
Analysis-Was not great last time but this is the biggest test
Fair Odds-12/1
5-Laffin Alicia (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Joshua Stables)
Laffin Alicia closed very well to finish fifth in the Grade I BG at KEE and came back off the freshening with a solid win at PIM and those two efforts could parlay him into a solid placing at this distance and back against this level of competition. As per many of the entrants from this barn, he has been training well at PRX and will be forwardly placed early; add to that a nice middle post and you have the makings of a gelding who could really be coming into his own with the time between races.
Analysis-Solid allowance win sets him up nicely here
Fair Odds-6/1
6-Custer Of The West (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Pegged as one of the best juveniles around this time last year, Custer Of The West was able to take down the Grade III Iroquois but comes in on a five-race losing streak and after sitting on the entire TC series, comes back off the layoff in a very advantageous spot. He was close to the pace in the Holy Bull back at GP but has really not shown enough to warrant a huge look here and although he has been working well, this is a wait-and-see type who needs to show something big to make him a play next time out.
Analysis-Comes in off the layoff with losing form
Fair Odds-25/1
7-Water Mummy (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-John Henry)
Water Mummy was not without his talent going into the KYD, having won the Grade I DMR Futurity as a two-year-old, but he shocked the racing world with a score at CD before reverting back to his lackluster form in the PRK against many of the same rivals. He will try to regain his form by making a run into what should be a hot pace but racing for new connections and with so many workouts in preparation, fitness will definitely come into question and he will have to be considered a longshot with eyes on an improved effort.
Analysis-KYD winner needs a change of tactics
Fair Odds-8/1
8-Ufc Morals (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Tiratzo)
Clearly talented with seven top three finishes in nine career starts, Ufc Morals set the pace in the Barrera at SA before giving up the advantage and is now asked to go an extra furlong, which makes this the longest race of his career. Add in the fact that his only major wins have been against minor allowance company and he ships clear across the country for this race and you have a colt with too many questions to answer before making him a solid top three candidate.
Analysis-Longest race of his career will test his stamina
Fair Odds-15/1
9-Dog Got Wings (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Grimley)
Dog Got Wings handled TP with aplomb to win the Grade III Spiral in his first start for the new barn and was certainly a contender to the top of the lane in the PRK before giving it up only late while showcasing that solid early speed that will get him to the lead once again. Unfortunately, he gets another outside post and that might exert a little more energy that he would like but the one-turn mile at BEL will certainly assist that and he might be able to set a modest pace en route to a big finish.
Analysis-Freshened and will certainly have the speed to lead
Fair Odds-4/1
10-Give Your All (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Give Your All rode a four-race winning streak into BEL for the Grade II Stephens and came rocketing down the stretch to finish third behind a winner earning his third straight stakes victory, and the extra furlong to charge into should only help his chances of winning here. Like many others, he stretches out in distance for the first time but should handle one-mile just fine and with a clear trip, he has enough talent to get the job done for connections looking to add this race to their bevy of stakes triumphs.
Analysis-Outside post will enhance his closing abilities
Fair Odds-5/1
Overall
Palestinian is proven at the one-mile distance and has some solid Grade I races under his belt but the move from a far outside draw to the rail tipped the scales for this handicapper in the Grade III Dwyer and if he can work out a trip, he has more than enough talent to win this race. Dog Got Wings will get a dream run outside and could be allowed to set the pace quite freely, taking them as far as he can go while second choice, just ahead of Give Your All, who stretches out in distance and will be charging late with experience at BEL and the backing of top connections to boost him along.
Prediction
Win-Palestinian (5/2)
Place-Dog Got Wings (4/1)
Show-Give Your All (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
