The Rebel (Grade 2) (KYD)- $1,250.000 Purse
OP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
February 24, 2024
There is plenty of reason to be excited about Saturday’s running of the Grade 2 Rebel from OP. It offers fifty points for its winner in the TC standings, but also features one of the largest purses that you will see on the road to the KYD to the tune of $1,250.000. That amount represents an increase of $250.000 from where it had been for the previous five years. It should come as no surprise that this prep race in particular has seen some excellent horses in the game end up in its winner circle, including Commanding in 2013 and Class Edge in 2020. We’ve had two dead heats in this race, coming in 2012 and 2017 so perhaps we are due for our next one there. In 2023, Mb Stables was the winning trainer in the Rebel, doing so with Energizer Party in a race that was held on sloppy going. That gelding never ended up running in any of the TC races and is still active today. There are fourteen horses heading to the starting gate, including two that I just wrote about last week in the Risen Star that were scratched. Sunny skies are expected this year. Here’s the field!
1- Good Knights (Our Athletes, ridden by F Geroux)- Heads north from FG, a track that has been kind to him thus far. Broke his maiden there in December, then was entered into the $100.000 Gun Runner that he ended up winning as well. At that point, Our Athletes knew he had a good one, and was rewarded again by his second-place effort in the Grade 3 Lecomte last month. In those last two, he was on or close to the leader, but he does not necessarily have to run like that to have success. His 20 points have him eleventh on the leaderboard.
2- Orange Pilled (Big Guns Stables, ridden L Dettori)- The trainer is still trying to get rid of the goose egg in the win column for 2024 (as of press time), and this would certainly be an emphatic race to do so in. As a two-year-old, Orange Pilled ran decently in a couple of Grade 1’s, including third in the Breeders Futurity at KEE. Last month, he was on the grass and just narrowly missed out on a win, settling for second in the TX Turf Mile. Perhaps he’ll have more of a future there, but the time is now to see what you can do on the dirt.
3- Beaten Path (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by D Davis)- Got plenty of experience running in top races as a two-year-old, and showed a liking for finish fourth into those races. That’s where he finished in the Saplin, the Grade 3 Sanford, and the Grade 2 KY Jockey Club but failed to cash a check in the Grade 1 Champagne. He’s close, but it seems like the trainer just needs to find a way to get a little bit more from him. Finished in the middle of the field earlier this month in the Withers and gets his regular rider again for the Rebel.
4- The Egg Man (Gdp Inc, ridden by D E Centeno)- He’s showing potential, doing well in overnights even though it took four races to officially break his maiden. That ultimately came against FL Breds at GP, and the trainer tried the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity with him after that. The Egg Man struggled in that and has not been back to the stake level since. After winning by four lengths in an optional claimer at GP, he gets another chance at it.
5- Free Agent (Fractious, ridden by M Franco)- Scratched out of the Risen Star last week. So, we’ll repeat what we said about him. In his young career, Free Agent has been very hit and miss. He showed his potential by winning the $200.000 Saplin last August, but struggled in the three graded races that follow. That’s concerning he was simply not competitive, twice beaten by six lengths. After being dropped into an optional claimer that he won, Free Agent will try to negotiate that he belongs at this level.
6- Rocking Raj (Night Rider Stables, ridden by J J Castellano)- Didn’t show much in his first three starts as a two-year-old, but then broke his maiden in early December on sloppy ground at WO, against ON-Breds. He has been idle since then, and you can see how he has been improving over the course of his works. This is still a tough assignment for Rocking Raj since the Rebel attracts the absolute best contenders going right now.
7- Jurassic Park (Smokey Stover, ridden by L Saez)- Ran here last month in the Grade 3 Southwest and came from well off the pace to get up for fourth, finishing just a quarter length behind the winner. He tried a similar tactic in the previous race, the RP Springboard Mile, and had a similar result where he simply ran out of time in the end. Each of those two races were on off tracks, so the trainer should be excited to see how Jurassic Park handles what should be a fast surface on Saturday.
8- Master And Commander (Fractious, ridden by F Prat)- Covered him last week in the Risen Star that he scratched out of. So, again, since not much changes in a week, here’s what was said, again. Joined the Fractious army in mid-October by way of a $150.000 private sale, and the trainer has handled him very patiently since then. Master And Commander has raced just twice since then, struggling in the Grade 2 KY Jockey Club before winning the $150.000 Mucho Macho Man at GP on New Year’s Day. It’s important for him to follow that up with another good run here and to not let a dud like the Jockey Club happen again. I think he’ll be okay.
9- Cheetah Special (Williams9, ridden by F Pennington)- The only horse in the field that has made more than ten starts already. Cheetah Special already has eleven starts, with two of them being wins. Finishing second has been more his thing, doing so five times, including his last race which was the $100.000 Rego Park for NY Breds. Despite all of those races, he has surprisingly not attempted to go a mile yet. This is a tough way to do that for the first time.
10- Puppy Plex (Jive Inc., ridden by Mar Garcia)- Looked very good in his first five races, winning three of them which were highlighted by the Grade 3 Iroquois at CD. That got him into the BC Juvenile, where he was a non factor. We can always forgive that, but he did not bounce back well off of that, again not getting involved last time out, which was right here in the Grade 3 Southwest. Needs to show that he should still be considered a strong KYD contender. Don’t write him off yet, but must run well here.
11- Bad Debt (Hippyheart, ridden by S Elliot)- There’s been nothing bad about the way he has been running thus far, including right here at OP where he won the Grade 3 Southwest last month. That makes up the majority of this 27 TC points that he currently has, a total which places him fifth on the leaderboard. Other than the Southwest, he also ran fourth in the Champagne and second in the Remsen. It’s too bad he couldn’t get into the BC Juvenile. What may be scary for the rest of the field is that his works are getting even better.
12- Baffert (Royalty Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- I believe this is my first time getting to cover this horse that has been highly touted in our game. Thus far, he is certainly living up to the hype, finishing his two-year-old season by winning the BC Juvenile by an impressive two lengths, doing so with a come from behind effort. He’s made one start since then, taking on several of these in the Grade 3 Southwest. Bad Debt was a little better than he was that day, but now they will be just about as close in the starting gate as they were then at the wire. Looking forward to watching him run.
13- Van Go Go (Fractious, ridden by P Lopez)- The only Fractious horse here that was actually not entered into the Risen Star, but he has made a start already in February. That came at the start of the month in the Grade 3 Withers, but he never seemed to get going that day. It was disappointing result for a horse that was coming off a win in the KY Jockey Club. The short turnaround tells me that Fractious is not one bit concerned with what happened in the Withers and his confident his horse will bounce back here.
14- Hoku (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by R L Moore)- We saw him here last month for the Southwest here as well, and for Hoku, it meant a third-place effort though he was involved in the photo for win. This means that the top three finishers from that race start from double digit post positions here. Hoku was a perfect 4-for-4 heading into that race, with wins in the Grade 3 Hope Stakes and the RP Springboard Mile. He has 16 points, placing him 14th on the KYD leaderboard right now and despite his post, should be considered one of the better options here.
Prediction: 11-12-1-7
— NS
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
