The AR Derby – Grade I [KYD]
OP Race #3 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,500.000 For Three Year Olds.
Well, we are getting to the pointy end of the KYD qualification process now and the real contenders are beginning to emerge. These qualification races end up almost as hard to win as the KYD itself leaving you wondering how many of these threes will be able to hold up any meaningful form in the second half of the year. But that conundrum is on nobody’s mind at this time as the dream of the TC and its massive bonus keep players breeding hard to try and find the “one”.
This race could well provide a last chance for some, for others it will be a one hit and hope and for a good few it will add to their tally and solidify them as real contenders. It’s a deep field, but then they all are, here is how they line up:
1 Poison Arrow Mb Stables Moore R L 122 —
You would have to say that at this point this may be most people’s KYD favorite. Trained by the player who has made the KYD and the TC their well touted aim in the game, many believe that if anyone can win the TC it is Mb Stables. Well, you don’t get a better record than this one has and certainly there can be very little doubt that if he wins today, he will be a warm favorite for the KYD and has that look about him that says TC. After being bought for $250.000 from the breeder Barcelona Farms he went straight to the top with a gutsy win in the LA Futurity. For me that was the biggest pointer towards a possible KYD win, more so than his subsequent wins because he raced on the pace that day and has been a closer in his other races meaning that with a sensible pace, he can be tactically astute.
This season he has been sublime taking the Withers and Fountain Of Youth in his stride, playing the game perfectly as horses went hard and made the pace hot. I think that is the key here, his pace algorithm seems to be perfect and that is a very important thing in big fields. The only problem I can foresee here is the inside gate, if the pace is hot again, he will have to do plenty of maneuvering to find a run and any block in the last 3 or 4 furlongs can make the difference between winning and losing in these days of very similar horses.
2 Team Leader Fractious Garcia Mar 122 —
Well, if Poison Arrow is the best horse in this race and Mb Stables the longtime favorite to win the TC then this horse and trainer may have something to say about that. Fractious is having a great year and one always felt that when they put their head down and went hard that they would rise very quickly to the top, that has certainly been the case in the last 6 months. This horse is another that already has KYD points on the board taking both the Lewis and the San Felipe this year and demonstrating a similar pace algorithm to Poison Arrow in that he can race from behind or from closer to the pace. That really is key here at HRP at the moment, the ability for the horse to be able to run faster than anything else at the right time, maybe that’s due to the emergence of HL, allowing the algorithms to do their work, or maybe it is just one of those hidden traits.
He was beaten fair and square by Poison Arrow in the LA Futurity last year but has shown improvement this year and with these two set up in gates one and two it should be a great battle.
3 Influence Mb Stables Franco M 122 —
The inside two may have all the form on the board, but I wonder whether this one may be able to spring a mini surprise. A very easy maiden winner he was un-raced as a two-year-old but is quickly coming to hand at three and despite being beaten into fourth behind Team Leader in the San Felipe it is just possible that the off track suited him less and he could conceivably turn the tables today. He actually went quicker than Team Leader in a 6 furlong work recently and like the other two is given a lovely draw to work with so just maybe this could be the upset in this race.
4 Rare Truth TwinTowersRacing Beschizza A 122 —
Well behind in the Lewis and well behind in the Fountain Of Youth it would be easy to dismiss this runner. However, this trainer seems to win big races when the odds are stacked against him and it may be a long shot, but I could never write it off. It is hard to find a reason he can win and there aren’t many straws to grab at on that score but the times this trainer wins tend to be the times I say he can’t.
5 Creepy Romantic Broken Spoke Stables Lezcano J 122 —
I think this is the type of horse that most of the mid-range players own, good enough to give a go to but in the end, they just can’t match the powerhouse stables. His works are decent, his win in the Gander good enough and those two things have led the trainer to take the gamble here and fair play to them. In truth though they have come up against a field that is one of the best qualifying fields I have written about this year and that is unfortunate for both the horse and trainer. Can he win, well strictly on form probably not, but in HRP there is never a no hoper. He is good enough to be in this race and therefore good enough to win. If the big horses get stuck in traffic or there are some funky tactical choices made, then he is good enough to be given a chance.
6 Top Dog Law Angelos Stable Parker D L 122 —
I think the reason he is here is a couple of very nice six furlong works, as good as Team Leader and he has won two big races this year so on works alone he certainly isn’t out of place. Form however says a different thing. His only attempt at a longer trip saw him a weak tenth and whilst he has proved to be a decent sprinter a narrow win in a five-furlong allowance at SUN certainly isn’t KYD winning form. Again, you cannot write him off and he deserves a crack, but he has chosen a very tough race to take his chances in.
7 Orange Pilled Big Guns Stables Eramia R E 122 —
When this one was a very close third in the Grade One Breeders Futurity last year the trainer started dreaming of the TC. Things on that score haven’t gone as well as they hoped after a no show in the Rebel last time, but he has come back from that race with an improved mile work, and he shouldn’t be written off too quickly. The work is the one thing that makes you stop and look, the form not so much but he was good off the front in the Breeders Futurity and if there is no leader here and he takes it on he may out last a good few.
8 Good Knights Our Athletes Geroux F 122 —
But for less than a length he could be two from two this year and a key contender for the KYD but a half-length here and a half-length there are what matters at HRP. Running in front in the Lecompt he was just out battled in the end and then stalking in the Rebel he just couldn’t get his head down at the right time and was beaten a head into second. He may be a key horse here for us punters as he brings a nice link between qualifying races but that is not where his importance ends. If he can find a stalk from this draw and the main contenders go back, he may just get a better run than them and he has proved that he is very close to the best of his age group in his last two efforts. I like him as a horse that may offer decent odds as the money piles on the favorites.
9 Exorcist Fractious Ferrer J C 122 —
I feel this may be the one that could make this race a very interesting tactical affair. I am not sure he is good enough to win, but who can tell with this stable at the moment but what he has been doing in recent races is running on the pace. His stable mate Team Leader has demonstrated a very good algorithm when it comes to pace and judgement and if this one goes off at a breakneck pace it could open the race up to them. Don’t get me wrong this isn’t a bad type and many of us would like to own him, but I feel he has a role to play here, and the main part of the role may not be winning.
10 Jurassic Park Smokey Stover Velazquez J R 122 —
Well, if we have three of the best in this race drawn one two three then we have another three of the best drawn ten, eleven and twelve. The cross over of form here is fantastic as we see completely different form lines between the top contenders and if nothing else, for us observers I think this is a key form race for the KYD.
So, onto this lightly raced superstar from Smokey Stover who would love to get one over on Mb Stables and Fractious. I think this colt falls very much into the same category as the top two here as he seems to have a very aware pace algorithm, can go on any ground and has proved he can run from the front or back. He was very brave in the Rebel last time and was flying home with the fastest splits in the Southwest before that so he must be a huge chance depending on which of the form lines turns out to be superior. The big question here is where he sits in the run. The tracks certainly seem “straighter” than they used to be so if he is two or three wide in the stalk, I don’t think it will ruin his chances but in the same way if he gets back and flies home wide that is another scenario we are seeing plenty of. Tactics or at least the tactics the race engine employs will be key to the winning of this race.
11 Baffert Royalty Stables Saez L 122 —
The winner of the BC Juvenile last year, he certainly hasn’t had many favors from the draw monster in his short career and gets another tough draw here. Though he has yet to win this year after sitting on top of the tree as a juvenile last year he hasn’t run a bad race, and his main issues seem not to be ability but that pace algorithm I keep mentioning. Last year as a closer he was devastating but this year in the Southwest and the Rebel he has mistimed his challenge and ended up narrowly beaten. Part of me wonders whether a “gaming’ button intervention here may be interesting, seeing him gun out to a lead and run some fast splits would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons but that may be a gamble too far for the owner who would love to see him take some big scalps.
He can win this, in fact a couple of months ago he would be favorite to do just that, and a few may have written him off too quickly. Whilst this is a top field, he is a big day sort of horse, and this may just be his day.
12 Hoku D J C Racing Stables Smith M E 122 —
Unbeaten as a two-year-old, I had this one on my KYD watch list long before he won the Springboard Mile. Like Baffert he has struggled with his timing this year being narrowly beaten in both the Southwest and The Rebel and like Baffert he certainly has the ability to win this on his best day. He once again gets a rotten draw and we see that a bit in the qualifiers, some horses get a run of great draws and qualify and some don’t, but we also see some that overcome bad draws and he nearly did that in the Rebel last time and has the ability to do it again today.
The key here will be pace and where he ends up, He wanted to stalk from his wide draw in the Rebel and got stuck very wide and though that is not the death sentence it used to be it can certainly sap a finish out of a horse. Maybe a fast pace here will allow him more space to slot in early, maybe the wide gate speed push will see him lead. Whatever happens he is one of the six outstanding horses in this race and a win would not be a surprise especially as the trainer is in the form of their life.
13 Off Stage Asgar Wilson E J 122 —
We start to brush the railings of the car park here which is a shame for this decent sort who is another that has had some rough treatment from the draw monster recently. His efforts in this sort of race have been solid without screaming winner and whilst he deserves a shot, I cannot see him beating all of the top six unless something really funky happens with the pace.
14 Clutch The Wink Joshua Stables Lopez P 122 —
Bought at auction for $15.000, the winner of just one race in a turf sprint, his penalty the car park. This is a hit and hope, and it looks like the draw monster just said ‘nah’.
SUMMARY
There is a clear top six in this race and interestingly they are grouped in two threes’ inside and outside, almost like a set up by the race engine. Who will win out of that top six is anyone’s guess but there will be plenty of support for the inside three not least because their form is perfect for this race.
I can only say one of 1,2,3 or 10.11.12 will win and any combination will fill the top three. It will be a great race to watch and a brilliant form race heading to the KYD.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
