The AR Derby – Grade I [KYD]
1 1/8 Mile Dirt Stake Purse $1,500.000 Open 3 Year Olds.

1st Poison Arrow Mb Stables Moore R L

Well, Mb should be patting the AI on the back and handing over a bonus after this performance because although this was probably the best horse in the race before the off, it needed a masterful ride to put that confidence into practice. There were no different instructions here, he is a closer pure and simple and that has now paid off through four graded stakes in a row. The AI took him back but from the inside gate that is always a gamble as traffic can be worse than an LA highway with road works at 8am. But here it was like they knew, it was like the AI had been waiting for this moment to become self-aware, waiting and waiting they knew that at HRP horses drift wide, front runners come off the rail and whilst in the old Commodore 64 days the AI would have gone wide, pushing and shoving to try and find gaps, the AI they call RL Moore just waited. When the rail opened up, like Moses, he flew, and the race was over in a matter of strides.
Joking aside, this was a great win by a horse that must be now, like so many stable runners before him, the KYD favorite. Of course, we can’t hand that cheque over to Mb for the TC just yet, we have seen many horses like this come unstuck, for almost no reason. But once again we will all sit at our computers through the late spring half hoping that Mb can finally break the TC curse and half crying that the greatest prize in HRP history may fall to someone else.

2nd Baffert Royalty Stables Saez L

If the winner was remarkable in his own right, you have to say that this performance was remarkable in a different way. This horse had looked unbeatable after his BC Juvenile win, but he suffers the same fate as the winner in that he is a closer and whilst the winner seems to be able to overcome that handicap a combination of bad draws and off tracks have kept this one from being the champion we know he is. It will be very interesting if the draws are reversed in the KYD, there is no doubt that with the same AI guiding him he is more than capable of beating this winner, but for today he has hopefully gained the points necessary to set up that rematch and now the draw Gods will play a big part in the final performance.
As for the run, well if this was a real-life track he would’ve run a good few lengths further than the winner being wide for most of the race, but I am not sure the handicap is the same at HRP and though wide he was never really blocked for a run. The trainer will be hoping for a nice 5 or 6 gate in the KYD, I am not sure he can beat the winner if that horse shows the same sort of form and gets the same sort of run as today but if there is one horse that can on his best day it is this one.

3rd Jurassic Park Smokey Stover Velazquez J R

I think this race will turn out to be a key form race in the KYD and this one ran a solid prep for the big one today. He was drawn wide, and didn’t as I expected use that gate to get to the lead, instead he loosely stalked the fast early pace and then got himself into position to launch his finish as they rounded the turn. In the end I think he used up his gas early here and when the closers rushed home, he had nothing left. I have a feeling that had the pace been slower early on we may have seen him much closer so I wouldn’t be writing off his chances in the KYD just yet.

4th Influence Mb Stables Franco M

Four of the clear top six I discussed in the preview filled the top four places here, so this was no surprise. This one ran a nice race but with a good draw he could only whack away for fourth. Much of what I said about Jurassic Park could apply to this one but with two fourths in KYD qualifiers I doubt he has done enough to make the big dance. He may go back to turf now; he may step back to the mile and either way I think he will turn out to be very good and he is one to keep an eye on in those three and up races later in the year.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES