The IND Derby – Grade II
IND   Race #2   1 1/16m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $500.000  For Three Year Olds.

1 Red Leaf, trained by Our Athletes
Bought from D J C Racing Stables for $330.000 after leading the SA Derby field at the furlong
pole he has run two nice races for the new owner since but has yet to get a win. A very
nice second in The Day Mile when beaten just a half length by Lunar Blaze was followed up
in his last start by a close fourth in The Stephens behind the same horse. There is no
doubt this horse has ability but there is a question hanging over him and today the answer
to that question should be known. On the one hand he has looked like a non stayer in some
of his races but looking at it from another way it may be that he hasnt the heart for a fight.
Either one of those would be enough to put me off him but if his canny trainer has found
the right combo then he has good enough form to win this.

2 Dial It In, trained by BigKing
Came from behind to win the SA Derby by a nose and then ran a better race than his finishing
position suggested in The Preakness. Bought for $500.000 from Mb Stables I have seen too many follow
the same route only to disappoint for their new owner to get over serious about his chances. The
very fact that the sites champion trainer was prepared to sell him suggests he didn’t measure up
and that is a definite worry if you want to lay cold hard cash on his nose. On bare form he has a
great chance, his works are good too and he must have a big chance but in a race where small things
will make the difference i am struggling to see him winning.

3 Champagne Supernova, trained by Eastern Equine
Was highly touted as a KYD winner after following up his stunning two year old form with a  close
second in the LA Derby. We saw in the KYD and then again in The BEL just how hard it is for a top two
year old to make it at three as he failed in both races. I think this trip will suit him much better
and his works suggest he is still capable of a very big show.

4 What A Guarantee, trained by John Henry
Its hard to find any horse on this site that hasnt been bought and sold a few times and this one is
no exception. Trained by Blushing Meadows to win the SUN Derby he then ran a spectacular third in the
KYD. He was strongly fancied for the BEL next time but with very little between horses here at HRP he
could only finish eighth after a compromised trip. The big spending new trainer John Henry bought the
horse in late June and has seen a lightning work over six furlongs since which wouldve given hin plenty
of confidence for this but i do have a worry about his winning chance, and that is the trip. The way he
finished in both the KYD and the BEL suggest he is a natural closer and needs a test of stamina so this
mile and sixteenth may prove a little sharp.

5 One More Moment, trained by South Beach Racing
Another that has been a victim of horse selling park he has moved around a fair bit since plying his trade
at the free track. It was back in April that he showed he wasnt just a good free track horse when he ran a
closing fifth in The Coolmore Lexington. His best run since was another closing effort when beaten a nose in
The Pegasus and whilst both those named efforts were good they are a shade off the best of these.

6 Box Of Rain, trained by Australia Wide
Attracted a sale after a close fifth in The Risen Star his new owner has been gentle with him since keeping
him out of the limelight. A nice win last time in Allowance company and some swift works suggest his trainer
has him up to this class but this is a very strong field for his return to black type.

7 Ghost River, trained by D J C Racing Stables
A recent purchase this one hasnt shown any of the black type ability of the others but has the work times
to suggest he isnt far behind them. A winner of a small turf sprint last time there isnt much other than the
work times to suggest he can get in the first half dozen.

8 Spring Lover, trained by Mb Stables
Won the BG Stakes and looked a real good KYD prospect but was given a terrible draw and did very well to
finish fifth in the big one. His chance for atonement came in the Preakness but once again he was given
a terrible draw again running very well to be fourth. A few weeks ago i wouldve been swearing this horse had
no luck at all because he has again got a horrible draw but with recent developments the wide draws seem to
be at less of a disadvantage and that may be enough to see him finally get the race he deserves. Hos work times
are hot and he has been well rested since the Preakness so i can see him as the top pick today.

9 Tiger Town, trained by Aer Stables
A good winner in allowance company last time he certainly seems to have what it takes on race and work times but
this is a big step up in class. Of course it helps that there is very little class structure at HRP and therefore
his chances wont be diminished by that but he still may find it tough going. I imagine he will go forward from
this draw in the hope that the mysterious BEL speed bias applies to IND and if it does, well who knows.

10 Edwin Drood, trained by Sanny Village
Second to Spring Lover in the BG Stakes after taking the Fountain Of Youth he has had a long rest and may just
need the race today. His most recent breeze was pretty handy though and his trainer has a knack of winning with
them fresh up so despite a tricky draw he may be the one to again chase Spring Lover home.

SUMMARY
This is a nice field and pace could well play a major part with a few deep closers in the race. I think Spring
Lover deserves a big win and this might be his day with Edwin Drood and Champagne Supernova as perhaps the
one to chase him home.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES