The Shawnee (Grade 3)- $275.000 Purse
CD- For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
June 1, 2024
Like the Blame Stakes, the Shawnee is a newer addition to the calendar at CD, appearing for the first time in 2020 as an ungraded race, and staying that way for three years before becoming a Grade 3 last year. It has also seen gradual purse increases over that time, and the present $275.000 level is a high mark for the race. Winning the race last year was Jinxed Artist, and she would continue to run well until the end of the year. She would later win the Grade 1 Spinster at KEE before running in the BC Distaff. That hasn’t carried over into 2024, but she’s still active, so who knows if that changes. Nine will be heading to post, so here’s our run through the field:
1- Ifyerwokeyerajoke (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- Up until August of 2022, when she won the Grade 1 Test at SAR, this seemed to be a filly that was going places, but one place she has not been since then is the winner’s circle. She’s continued to get chances in graded races over and over again, and there have been times where she hit the board to justify her continued placement in them. However, she’s become inconsistent, and did not run well six weeks ago in the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. That might mean she’s due for one of her better starts, but I can’t trust her in this field.
2- Queen Evade Party (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by A Cedillo)- Inconsistency is the story with this filly as well. Two back, she looked really good in coming from the back to win the Grade 3 Royal Delta at GP, but the two races on each side of that are not encouraging at all. Now, they were Grade 1’s, and this is not more like the Royal Delta than the La Brea or the Vinery Madison, so I have optimism that she is going to run here more like she did at GP. But that work on May 6th is slow for her. Is that cause for concern?
3- Smiling Lucy (Nakamura Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- This six-year-old mare has been going back and forth with wins and non-wins for over a year, and based on that pattern she would get the victory here. There’s nothing wrong with the races that were not wins either, as three of them have been second place efforts. Having said that, a lot of these races have been open allowances, but she has fared well in recent ungraded stakes. She’s won over $700.000 for her career, so she is doing something right and should be a contender here.
4- Present Tense (Mb Stables, ridden by R L Moore)- Her career got off to a fast start, but her successes are not past tense. The Worst Case Scenario comes into the Shawnee on a three-race winning streak, a stretch that began after she ran fifth in the BC Distaff last fall. The win streak did begin with an open allowance but moved on to the Grade 2 Azeri at OP, and then the Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes at KEE six weeks ago. She’s the class of the field here, and with her running well as she is, she should be the favorite and is hard not to pick. She still must be at her best, though, because she is not unbeatable.
5- Queen Mother (Smokey Stover, ridden by J R Velazquez)- At the beginning of October, Queen Mother won the Grade 2 Zenyatta and less than a week later she found herself sold for $600.000 from Wood Duck Stables to Smokey Stover. At the moment, that’s a win for Wood Duck, even though Queen Mother has still run well in her four starts since the sale. She simply has not won any of them and has been seventh twice. Otherwise, she did close well to be second in the Vinery Madison two back, but that has not happened enough. While her career in the shed was considered with that price tag, too, it’s time for Queen Mother to show why Smokey Stover invested so highly in her.
6- El Salvador (Iolaus Racing, ridden by F Geroux)- Passed through several barns early in her career, but has now been with Iolaus Racing for every year. The trainer has experienced success with her, earning four wins in eight starts, three of them coming consecutively. Unfortunately for the trainer, none of them have come in the stakes that she has been entered in though she has been close in them. Last time out, she picked up the most aggravating finish known to HRP trainers, fifth by less than a length, in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. More of the same makes her threat to Present Tense for the win here.
7- Port Star (Fractious, ridden by M Franco)- Claimed by the trainer for $10.500 in March, and then won a couple of overnights which led to her placement at the stake level. This looked to be the right decision at the end of 2023, as she was second in the Grade 3 Maple Leaf Stakes and then third in the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes, but she has not built on that any further. In 2024, she has only made $8.000 in four starts, coming from the Ruffian Handicap’s fourth place performance last time out. Port Star can be in the mix, but a couple of these seem too much for her to overcome.
8- Balius (Threshold, ridden by J Lezcano)- A strong three-year-old campaign was highlighted by winning the SUN Oaks and taking part in the KYO. She ran in the middle of the field that day, but never really continued her old form. While she does have two wins since then, they have been in allowances and one of them being dropped as far down as for a $15.610 purse where she only had to beat three others. Threshold stuck with it, and the tide may be turning in his favor based on her last two starts. It’s a second that appeals to me more than a win, that coming last time out in the Doubledogdare Stakes, where only Present Tense was better.
9- Always A Virgin (Tinkey, ridden by T Gaffalione)- She may be a virgin, but she’s a highly successful one, winning over $1,000.000 over her 18-race career and seven of them resulting in victories. Her signature win came two back, coming in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile, and she took that result into the Apple Blossom, a race that she had finished third in during 2023. However, while she was only beaten a length there, she ran sixth. She’s won three of five and looks to be the biggest threat to Present Tense.
Prediction: 4-9-6-8
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
