July 16, 2016

Fillies and mares who might not be at Grade I caliber yet, or are trying to regain some of their lost form, will take to the WO main track on Sunday afternoon for the Grade III ONT Matron Stakes and among the field of six are a pair of multiple Grade I winners who are looking for some big efforts to progress forward on. The winner of this race last year was none other than Lullaby Maker Tf, who used a win in the mud a springboard to a trio of Grade I wins including the BC Distaff, so it is not unfeasible to think that a big player in this division could become from this talented bunch.

1-Rosemari Perfect (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Ekli Stable)

A multiple Grade I winner of almost $1200.000 last year, Rosemari Perfect came back off the layoff with a solid third before a lackluster last place effort in the local prep for this race and she will need to be better in her third start of the year to hit the board. She certainly has the talent to contend for the win and this time last year, she was at DEL for the biggest race of the weekend so look for an improved effort here, even if it is not enough to get her to the winner’s circle.

Analysis-Inside runner needs to show more in her third seasonal start

Fair Odds-8/1

2-True To Form (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

True To Form rattled off a series of victories going into the Allaire Distaff against older runners at PIM and has certainly keep up that form versus this caliber of field, leading many to believe that a three-year-old could easily win this tough race for older runners. You will most likely see her on the lead from her good inside stall and if that is the case, and she can set modest splits, she could be a wire-to-wire threat for an owner who won this event two years ago with fellow three-year-old Caught Red.

Analysis-Could be gone at the head of the lane with weak splits

Fair Odds-6/1

3-Princess Legion (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Aml Racing)

Princess Legion beat state-breds in the Melair at SA two races ago but could not close enough to finish on the board in the Summertime Oaks against her inside rival and now, will try to capitalize on a pace scenario that is really not suited to her. Speed ratings have been improving but she will have to be in contention throughout if she wants to make a decent run at the early leaders and that could leave her vulnerable from a stamina perspective, especially facing more seasoned entrants.

Analysis-Needs some sort of pace to make her late run
Fair Odds-10/1

4-Shadow Of A Doubt (Six-year-old bay mare / Owner-Axeman)

After being in the barn of owner Blushing Meadows for more than two years, Shadow Of A Doubt races for new connections in the ONT Matron and while she was a solid third in the Top Flight at AQU, she has to show more in her first start since April to contend for the win. She races at WO in 2014, finishing fourth in the marathon Maple Leaf, and will certainly appreciate the move to a distance that sets up a quicker pace but there is not a lot of speed in this event and if she hopes to close, she will have to race close and hope for her experience to kick in down the lane.

Analysis-New owners hope for a big return

Fair Odds-4/1

5-Key West Minibus (Five-year-old black mare / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Key West Minibus has made a solid career of things going short but will try to stretch her speed out to two-turns at WO on Sunday and on paper, seems to be in declining form and will be up against it to tackle the best of this sextet. Failing to close at any point in the Winning Colors probably warranted this move to a route of ground and while she does have a win at WO in her past, that was over the turf and she will have to show that kind of form over an unfamiliar main track.

Analysis-Sprint to route is a tough angle for this mare

Fair Odds-15/1

6-Sweep The Ash (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Multiple Graded Stakes winner Sweep The Ash was a very good second in the Apple Blossom to start her season and after bouncing in the Allaire Distaff at PIM, she makes her long awaited third start of the year and should be primed for a huge effort from the farthest stall. She looks to be the best suited to sit off the lone speed along the inside and under a new jockey, she might just get the jump in her rivals if her three-year-old rival folds.

Analysis-Excellent form last year and she seems to be coming around
Fair Odds-7/2

Overall

Sweep The Ash and Shadow Of A Doubt both make their third starts of the 2016 season in the Grade III ONT Matron and the former looks to have the best chance of sitting off the early fractions and making a winning run, over a former champion who seems to be coming back into form but races for a new barn first time out. True To Form looks like the lone speed going two-turns and could be a major wire-to-wire factor but holding on late will be testing and if she passes, she could be a major player at this level down the line.

Prediction

Win-Sweep The Ash (7/2)

Place-Shadow Of A Doubt (4/1)

Show-True To Form (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES