The Kelso Stakes – Grade III
SAR 1m InTurf Graded Stake
Purse $175.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.

1 Cascade King Nakamura Stables Davis D 123 —

This is a loaded field for a grade three, as just about all the races at SAR generally are, so whereas this very good horse would look like a good thing in most grade three’s he is just one of many win chances here. Competitive in this grade from his three-year-old days, he has developed into a solid stakes horse for the stable winning just the one graded race but finishing in the first three in many more. Second at all levels from grade one down he does tend to find one runner too good on a lot of occasions but from this decent draw he looks like a natural for all the trifecta bets on this race. This trip is on the sharp side for him so he may find it hard to go with them early and depending on his race tactics may come late or get flat footed on the home turn if ridden on the speed. A genuine top three prospect but may find one too good.

2 Hawaiian Lord Our Athletes Dettori L 123 —

Just talking about Cascade King as a horse that finds one too good, we come to this horse who has finished second no less than sixteen times! Surprisingly for a horse who has won $1,164.000 he has never won a stakes race of any kind but has been runner up at grade one and grade two. I think this mile will suit; he did after all win an optional allowance over the mile in 1.32 flat so he should be more than happy with any pace. A natural stalker, this draw will be perfect for him and whilst getting his first stakes win in this competitive race may be very tough there is no reason after his excellent and close second in the Poker Stakes over this course and distance that he couldn’t do it.

3 Dangerous Fugitive Night Rider Stables Lezcano J 123 —

The stable usually claims them and turn them into stakes winners but with this one they went the private sales route and forked out $125.000 for the horse that had been claimed for $40.000 just one race before. There was clear intent there and although he hasn’t won for the new owner yet, he has certainly proved to be well worth the sale price. Third in the Fort Macey and a close fourth in the MTH Stakes, both times he went to the front and looked like the ninth furlong was too far, stepping back today we may find his ideal trip and with a 1.10 and 3 breeze on the track recently he could be ready to get back to winning ways.

4 Commerce D J C Racing Stables Pennington F 123 —

I know a bit about this horse as he was claimed from me, but the new owner has been brilliant since he changed yards, and he is a much better horse now. The key it seemed was trip, as I had been mostly sprinting him but since the trainer has taken on longer trips, he has excelled, very nearly winning the grade two Man O War in May. Although the trainer is doing a better job with him overall, his running style is still the frustrating part of his ability, a deep closer over the longer trips he may find trouble if he gets too far back in this full field over a mile. I wouldn’t be writing him off and he certainly has a winning chance, but he will need all the jockey and trainers tactical work to launch him at the right time.

5 Theegala Alydar Stables Rodriguez Jam 123 —

A seven-race winner, he looked good when winning the American Stakes on soft ground but has looked a bit outpaced on faster ground in his last two. Another that likes to close late, he will find the same traffic and timing problems as the horse inside him but if the rain does come that could be the thing that gives him the advantage he may need. Despite being a deep closer he has clocked a couple of sharp mile works recently so the trainer may have been addressing that problem and whilst he isn’t the best on paper he certainly isn’t without a chance.

6 Chai Danger Wolf Ridge Stables Lopez P 123 —

A seven-year-old and fairly unsung as far as his exploits go as he has been a prolific winner with 12 wins under his belt and has also won at this level. He certainly acts on an off track as he proved when winning the FG Stakes but has also run well on dry tracks at this level so he isn’t a one trick pony although the great leveler of an off track will not bother him as much as some of the others. A winner three times over at the mile, I am not sure it is his best trip, and he may need a smidgen further, but he is effective and comes here with every chance.

7 Neon Town John Henry Hernandez R M 123 —

It is great to see this trainer at SAR as they don’t race as much as they used to, we all know how good they can be with the right horse and this one is an interesting sort. Claimed in his last start when winning over this trip, that was only his second turf start so he is an untapped talent on this surface, His recent dirt works are sharp as a tack and if the trainer has seen something at home, then he could just be the smokey at odds in this race.

8 Sioux Arrival High Voltage Gutierrez Mario 123 —

A lightly raced four-year-old he launched himself into the big-time last year with a massive win in the DMR Derby. He fought in some tough races after that but got going again this year when taking the Canadian Turf in March. In his last two starts both at grade one he has run well without troubling the top three and at this stage of his career will welcome the ease in competition back to grade three today. A recent 1.34 flat work over the turf mile says he is ready to get back to winning and he may be the one to spoil a few parties in this race.

9 American Generals Riggins Racing Prat F 123 —

This four-year-old was the winner of the DMR Mile as a three-year-old, so is more than happy at this trip, but he struggled going a fast early pace in the BC Mile and ended up disappointing. The trainer has taken it slowly this year mopping up some races at lesser tracks and after three wins in a row they obviously feel he is ready to take on the top company again. He gets a wide gate here which hasn’t suited in the past so the trainer may have to do some tinkering, but he certainly has the ability to run very well if things go right for him.

10 Key Ambition Czech Out Farms Bridgmohan S X 123 —

The six-year-old son of Compress has a fair record but may find he is a bit outclassed here. I did like the way he won a decent allowance at PRX last time, but this is a decent step up on that form. The one thing I will say is he is working great, looking really sharp on the gallops over shorter trips and whilst he is a long shot, there are glimmers in his form to say that he has a punchers chance.

11 Wayward Prince Angelos Stable Geroux F 123 —

A five-year-old, he is a tough and consistent sort who is certainly capable at his best of winning this. Finishing strongly over the nine furlongs last time he was only beaten a half-length in the MTH Stakes and he started the year by winning an optional allowance over this trip in 1.32 and 1, and that form is very competitive. The wider draw may see him go back, but if he can slot in and not be too far back then he will be finishing strongly at the end.

12 Seven Is Lucky Mb Stables Velazquez J R 123 —

We know how much the trainer loves winning this meet, so we know this one will be tuned to the minute for this race. The trainer has had some wide draws to contend with in the first few days of this meet and gets no respite here with the car park to run from. The winner of the HOL Turf Cup over 12 furlongs at the end of last year he proved he has the pace over this trip when making the running and ending up fourth in the Appleton in March. I think he may take the wide gate speed push and lead and if he gets that without too much effort, he will be very hard to get past down the stretch.

SUMMARY
A very tough race to call and the go to bet may be Seven Is Lucky who is working strongly and despite having the wide gate may see that help him get to the lead easier than if he was drawn mid pack. Past him there are a host of chances, and it is hard to pick but maybe Sioux Arrival may offer some value. Of the others it is hard to guess without knowing the ground conditions or the pace of the race, it may be set up for closers or it may see a steady pace and see domination by the on Pacers.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES