The MTH Oaks – Grade III
MTH Race #6 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Ragnar D J C Racing Stables Juarez N 123 —

A small but competitive field meets here with this filly in gate one and representing the two handed stable of DJC Racing. The winner of two, she has run her best races in defeat so is due a good win at this level. A game dead heat winner of the Ruthless, she has since run in three hot three-year-old races and done well enough to give her a chance in this contest. She ran well on the off track to be a closing third in the grade one Ashland a length clear of Aghast and then finished behind Ghost Writer in the Black Eyed Susan before getting revenge on that filly in the IND Oaks when a good third. Her form read like so much form these days in these sorts of races making it hard to pick a winner based on finishing positions in previous races, but she ticks a lot of boxes as a real contender. Strong works and the ability to run well on any going the only thing that may be against her is her running style which tends to see her coming from off the pace and that takes a few randoms to come off.

2 Jawaher D J C Racing Stables Alvarado F T 123 —

In contrast to her stable mate, she seems to dislike an off track but as long as the ground stays dry, she is well placed to run well. Another one that has run her best races in defeat she was coming home strongly in the GP Oaks when a close fifth before a non-start in the Eight Belles on an off track. In her last start she raced much closer to the pace than normal and kept on at the one pace for third but that was a decent effort in the Summertime Oaks, so I wonder if they may be the tactics again today. Like her stable mate she is working well so she has every chance of making this a good race for her owner.

3 Ghost Writer Nakamura Stables Elliott S 123 —

Another that may need a dry track, she has links in form with Ragnar which put her very close to that filly, She gave me the impression with her excellent run in the Black Eyed Susan where she finished third that she needed more than nine furlongs at this level and that was confirmed last time out in the IND Oaks where she got going late to be fourth. That may make this trip a little short for her but that is the only semi negative I can find, and she certainly has a winning chance along with all of her rivals.

4 Skydancer Riggins Racing Rodriguez Jam 123 —

The outside two runners are the most prolific winners in the field with this filly looking in fine form with a strong effort in the DEL Oaks last time. She is another who may find this trip a little on the short side as she was really strong in winning the Alltaire Distaff over nine furlongs but left it too late in the DEL Oaks over a mile and sixteenth, today’s trip. Another that seems to like coming from off the pace she will have to get her timing right in this race to win but there is no reason why she can’t.

5 Aghast Mb Stables Van Dyke D 123 —

This one ran four off tracks in a row winning one but either side of those races she won at SA and last time out in the Selene suggesting that her form may need read as well as it actually is. The key here however is not form because all these fillies can make a good case for winning, the key here is running styles. This filly is the only on pace runner in the field, she has an outside gate which will give the horse the option of using the wide gate to get a good start and that may indeed be the winning of the race. Something will have to stalk her and that may end their chances and the rest will be held up for a late run so if she can dictate the pace, I think she leads all the way and wins.

SUMMARY

On form and works this field should all finish within a head of each other so anything on paper can win, however I think this will come down to tactics and the race engine and I can see Aghast using her on speed nature to win this.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES