The Test – Grade I
SAR Race #8 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Altered State Mb Stables Franco M 122 —

The trip is a key factor here as seven furlongs can be a specialist trip, and this one has a huge bonus of already having won a graded stake over the seven. Her first foray into stakes company didn’t go so well when she faded away in the Alexandra in the mud. Still, she bounced back for a brave second in the Bourbonette Oaks from a terrible draw and then backed that up with another gutsy run to win the Eight Belles. The trainer again tried to take her longer in the Acorn but she again faded so it is back to a trip where she is two from two over and that for me is the key factor to her chances. A great draw to find the stalk and she will be fighting all the way.

2 Pleased To Meet Ya Mb Stables Saez L 122 —

A lightly raced filly with just the five starts, but she too has won over this trip and also has a decent stakes win to her name. That win came in the Miss PS where she ran from a wide draw and led all the way so like her stable mate, she gets an ideal draw today to once again force for the pace. This is a step up for sure, but her works are in the ballpark and while she may not have the exposure of some, she clearly has the ability.

3 Lady Lara Night Mare Racing Geroux F 122 —

Another that is unbeaten over the seven furlongs and another that has been tried over longer trips. She in contrast to the two inside her is a closer which can sometimes be the kiss of consistency death, but she has managed to get the timing right four times and I am sure the pace will be hot enough for her to launch late if she can find the gaps. In all likelihood, the field will fan wide which may give her a run up the inside. My fear is of course that she will be blocked at an essential moment and if you look back at her recent efforts, they have all resulted in huge late runs, but only once has she found the line in time. A winning chance if things go her way.

4 Star Sapphire Fractious Gutierrez Mario 122 —

Well behind Pleased to Meet Ya in the Miss PS, it is tough to see how she can turn that around in this race. Her works are certainly good enough but so far, she has struggled to bring her homework to the track. You have to give her points for being from the Fractious yard, but it is hard to see her winning.

5 Mo Mentum Filly Mb Stables Moore R L 122 —

The draw monster has been very kind to the stable with their three runners all occupying nice gates and this one represents a nice contrast to the other two stable mates. Whilst they are more on-pace types, this one is a closer which will cover the bases nicely if the lead is contested and the race ends up going at breakneck speed. She won the Santa Ynez over this trip back in January, getting her timing right, but then we saw the consistency problem with closers as it went wrong in the Forward Gal next time and she closed too late. Timing or blocking is always a problem for the closers, and we have seen that throughout this one’s career. If the pace is strong and the gaps come, she is certainly capable of winning this.

6 Double Zee TwinTowersRacing Bridgmohan S X 122 —

As with a lot of horses from this stable, she has been highly tried in her eleven-race career, but she has certainly done enough to suggest she has a chance. This is her first go at this trip but she won at stakes level over the six furlongs and has looked like the mile-plus races are too far so this may indeed be her ideal trip. Her works suggest she may run a huge race today and she could be my dark horse pick.

7 Racing Tipster Fractious Prat F 122 —

Five starts for four wins, it doesn’t get much better than that and her impressive win in the Leslies Lady Stakes last time over this trip certainly bodes well for her chances. I think she is possibly the filly with the most potential in this field, the question is whether she can take this big step up in class today. Her works say she can, and I expect her to go up and fight the Mb Runners for the lead, that could work out well or be a disaster, only time will tell.

8 Sorenstam Riggins Racing Velazquez J R 122 —

Just a nose behind Altered State in the Eight Belles, was one of only two races she has tasted defeat in her six-race career. She won the Bourbonette Oaks beating Altered State in the race before that so once again I expect those two horses to be very close and that puts this filly right in the hopper for the win. The wide draw may help with her getting to the front but there are some quick fillies who like to go on speed so that on speed battle can only be won by one horse. The stable is going well at this meet and this one is another good chance.

9 Upstream Fractious Pennington F 122 —

The winner of her last four races with one on this track in early June she is clearly an improving sort. That improvement has to go up some levels to continue today, but she did well to take the Jersey Girl from a wide draw last time so it may be within her scope. I like her, but this may come a bit early in her career; she is certainly one to be considered.

10 Old Mexico Mo Mentum Farm Silvera Ru 122 —

Gets an awkward draw but there’s a 1.10 and 2 6-furlong work in her recent homework suggesting she may be able to overcome it. Her form hasn’t really measured up to that sort of work time and that is always a concern but her only bad race came over a longer trip, so she is certainly a contender here. I guess the wide draw poses some questions, she has gone back as a closer and forward as a front runner so it is hard to work out where she maps from the gate, but this trainer knows how to win so they will know what to do.

11 Beach Towel Winning Link Stables Gaffalione T 122 —

The car park goes to Beach Towel which is tough as this filly is very close to the best of these. Just a half-length behind Mo Mentum Filly in the Santa Ynez puts her right in this with a kind run from the race engine but that is the thing that affects her chances most. She has the stamina for this as she proved in winning the GP Oaks and then just getting beat in the DEL Oaks but over these seven furlongs, she has just been found a little one-paced at the end. Forward or back, that is the question, forward could well change the complexion of the race, and she will have to rely on circumstances, good luck to her.

SUMMARY

Inevitably you have to consider the Mb trio as big chances here along with the Fractious trio. It is no sure thing in a race like this that either trainer will win and there are some good chances including Double Zee, Sorenstam, and Lady Lara. The key here will be the pattern of the race I feel, if we end up with three or four trying for the lead we may end up with a 22 and something first quarter which will bring the closers into it, if that doesn’t happen it will be dominated by on speed horses of which Mb and Fractious have the most. I am going to gamble on a fast pace and go for Lady Lara getting through the inside and diving late for the win.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES