Dueling Grounds Derby ($1,500.000 Purse)
KD- For Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile and Five Sixteenths on the Turf
September 11, 2024

The big races at KD aren’t only weekends, as this Wednesday, we will have $1,500.000 at stake in the third running of the Dueling Grounds Derby. That purse amount is double what was offered last year, so perhaps we will soon see this race receive a graded designation. It is held exclusively for three-year-old filles, sending them over a mile and a quarter. As we would expect, these conditions have attracted some well accomplished fillies, but there are a few up and comers here trying to make a big splash here. Last year’s race was won by Fear Me Not, for Mb Stables. As of right now, Mb is the only trainer to have won this race, but that filly has struggled since her win. She has won a couple of optional claimers, but her stake efforts have been poor, including last week in the JC Gold Cup at SAR. Mb has a real good one here, but we’ll explain the rest the challengers to that one here:

1- Supine (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by Mar Garcia)- Even though Supine comes into this race off of a win in the Grade 1 DMR Oaks, she is still an up and comer, as that was only her fourth start and her stake debut. I liked her chances in that preview, and that’s not going to change after an enormous victory in the DMR Oaks. Critics of that race could point to the small five horse field as well as her 93 SRF which is on the low end for a Grade 1, but she did what she needed to do and I feel she will step up again here and run very well.

2- Za Kiyah (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by G Corrales)- The trainer sees his entries starting side by side here, and Za Kiyah is also like her stablemate in that she comes here off of a win in her stake debut. This onetime $5.000 maiden claimer ran at DMR the day before Supine got her big win and captured the $100.000 CTT Stakes which is actually at a longer distance than what she will run here. That was her fourth win in five starts, and the trainer is certainly relieved that no one claimer her for just five bucks in March. That’s also where her hot streak began.

3- Lakota Wind (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by A Cedillo)- While trainers throughout our virtual world lost their opportunity to get Za Kiyah for $5.000, Mo Mentum Farm did not allow Lakota Wind to got through a $9.500 claimer in April without claiming her. Perhaps it was a good thing that he had three other horses in that race to take note of her. Lakota Wind is 2-for-4 since the claim, with her bigger win being the Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap at DMR. At that same track, she would then run in the DMR Oaks, and was a respectable third in the race.

4- Wonderful World (Smokey Stover, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- A strong two-year-old season that saw her win the Grade 1 Natalma and make the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf led into her winning her first race of 2024: the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant. She has been fine since then, finishing in the top four in three of four races, but none have been wins. Had a solid effort last month in the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes, running third. Showed that she could handle the distance two back when she went longer in an optional claimer, running second.

5- Right As Rain (Alydar Stables, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- On New Year’s Eve, Right As Rain won the $100.000 LA Futurity- Fillies, but that has not translated into any victories as a three-year-old. In her six starts, a pair of seconds represent her only times hitting the board. Now, the good news, as they were in her last two races: the Grade 1 BEL Oaks and the Grade 2 SAR Oaks, each of which are long turf races. The BEL Oaks was not her turf debut, as she tried it once before (and was also where she broke her maiden), and she may have been begging for a return to the surface. After all only Let Me Explain beat her there. Bad news is that she must deal with her again. I don’t think I’d put her on top here, but I fully expect her to contend.

6- Little Stinker (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by F Geroux)- On a day where the trainer brings us the greatest tradition in the game: the World Trade Center Memorial, which runs at AQU this year, it’d be great to see TwinTowersRacing get the victory here. He has two in the field, but I am not crazy over either of them. Little Stinker has one win over eight starts, and while she’s run decently in the stakes she has been in afterwards, I would like her a more against maybe a little softer stake company. She may like this distance though, based on the way she closed in the Pucker Up Stakes. This is my preference of his entries, and I could be tempted if her odds got real high.

7- Status (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by T Gaffalione)- Claimed by the trainer for $50.000, and did not do much before then, and she really has not done any more since. Last month, she picked up her second career win at FE for an $18.450 purse. That was her turf debut, but it doesn’t scream “run me next time a $1,500.000 race”. Status does her best running late, so like her stablemate, this is another horse that may be showing a lot privately that she will thrive at this distance. It may happen, but I’ll have to see it first.

8- Let Me Explain (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Looking to keep the trainer undefeated in this race, and simply seems like a monster within this field. There are many good horses that will be running and Let Me Explain still must show up here and run the best that she can, but her accolades are very impressive. As a three-year-old, she was moved to the dirt to chase bigger opportunities after she had won the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. She would make the KYO, and would later win the Grade 1 Acorn, but after that, she would go back to turf and had no difficulty at all in doing so. She would not only win the BEL Oaks (Grade 1), she did so by two lengths. The SAR Oaks (Grade 2) saw runner up Right As Rain be closer, but still, it was Let Me Explain’s tenth win in 15 starts. Likely to be an overwhelming favorite here, but she’s earned it.

9- The Desire (Sheffler Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- Ran third to Let Me Explain and Right As Rain in the SAR Oaks last month, but she really wasn’t competitive with them, being beaten by four lengths. She’s been efficient over her career, getting at least some portion of the purse in all of her nine races, but unfortunately for the trainer, she’s only gotten the biggest cut of that once. She’s a competitive filly who certainly belongs in this field, and gets her regular rider, but the trainer has to find out how to make her a little better because as good as the SAR Oaks was for her, she has to deal with both fillies that did four lengths better than her again.

10- Don’t Mind A Dime (Asgar, ridden by P Lopez)- The last time we saw her, it was in the Grade 3 ONT Colleen where she ran with the leader the whole way before prevailing in the stretch for her second win in three races. Over her last four, she has been either first or second. Three of them before the ONT Colleen were all sprints, and she has never gone more than a mile and a sixteenth. For a traditional front runner, it’s fair to ask if she will hold her speed this entire distance, but the trainer may also end up having a different approach to the race.

11- One Spirit (Nakamura Stables, ridden by S Elliott)- After running very well in overnights, One Spirit made her stake debut in late July at the Grade 3 ONT Colleen, where she finished in a third-place dead heat, behind the winning Don’t Mind A Dime. With that race behind her, the trainer hopes that his filly takes the next step while adding distance. All that is stating the obvious, really, and this really makes her a bit of a wild card in the race because she has been good and consistent while working exceptionally well. Now, it’s just a matter of seeing how high her ceiling is.

12- Happy Be Great (Our Athletes, ridden by F Prat)- In eight races, Happy Be Great has only won once, but has hit the board six times. That would be more appealing if that were at the stake level, but they are all in overnights. Last time out at a mile and a quarter, she may have finished third, though she was not a threat to the winner in that ELP N2L allowance. Likes to come from way, way back but this is a very tough assignment.

13- Nurse Hatchet- Scratched

14- When Doves Cry (Big Jd Racing, ridden by W T Buick)- Dealt a tough hand in the post draw, but this filly has been able to win often, doing so in half of her ten career starts and four of them are in her last six races. She’s done her best work running in ungraded stakes and has three such wins. Her career highlight to this point is the $250.000 Limestone Turf Sprint from KEE in April. Went long for the first time in her most recent race, a win in the $125.000 Ocain, for NY-Breds at SAR but much more distance is added here. I feel good about her getting that, but W T Buick will have to make sure she is not hung out wide for too long.

Prediction: 8-5-2-1

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded