July 23, 2016

To understand the importance of Nijinsky as a racehorse, sire and overall asset to the thoroughbred as a whole, you need only know that he is one of the few horses in history to have a major stakes race named for them in both North America and in Europe. A son of the immortal Northern Dancer and the last horse to win the British Triple Crown, the races in his name have gone through some changes over the years but the current edition at WO will be contested Sunday afternoon at the distance of nine-furlongs for a $200.000 purse. Won in real-life by the likes of Bucks Boy, Quiet Resolve, A Bit O’ Gold and Rahy’s Attorney, the HRP editions have seen a bunch of different winners since it was actually restricted to fillies and mares early on, although when you count Bronze Sabre, Whats Up and War Scent as winners, you know it has to have some significant. Sri Lanka won this race last year and comes back to defend but an improving three-year-old and a turf miler might hold the heavy hands in a race that could lead to big events at SAR, BEL and even the BC down the line.

1-Aggravation (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Going one-mile or longer, Aggravation has five wins and a second from six starts and wins in the Singletary and the Grade II Wise Dan at CD make him a huge contender, especially if he can run back to that enormous 102-speed rating. He will be sitting just off the early pace, can handle an off-going if necessary and gets a high percentage jockey over the WO oval; all factors that make him very attractive against a field that lacks a true star.

Analysis-Talented three-year-old could be the best on the turf

Fair Odds-2/1

2-Bad Mouth (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Tiratzo)

Bad Mouth finally broke through for a huge win two back in the Fort Marcy but set the pace in the Wise Dan before backing up to last and there seem to be too many of that tough losses to make him a serious win candidate at a low price. That 103-speed rating certainly jumps off the page and came at this same distance and it is possible that he could get an inside stalking trip and scoot up the rail but the long WO stretch plays havoc with some closers and unless he times it right, his move might be premature.

Analysis-Big regression last time makes him more vulnerable

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Beav Barley (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Oval Express Farms)

After a failed attempt going short on the main track, Beav Barley gets back to a route of ground on the grass and hopes that he can set the pace like he did in the River City Handicap last year and take this talented field gate to wire. Unfortunately, that kind of running style is not well suited to WO and he faces some very good closers so his odds will be high and his chances of winning even higher, with a top three placing as a more logical finish.

Analysis-Could hit the board if he sets soft fractions

Fair Odds-15/1

4-Stormy Passing (Six-year-old bay gelding / Owner-C.R. Racing)

Stormy Passing came from off the pace to finish a bang-up second in the Wise Dan to the inside runner but will enjoy the added distance afforded here in the Nijinsky as he looks to build on a budding career at the age of six. Speed ratings have been increasing and the careful handling by his owner seems to be paying dividends and although the field might be tougher, he looks to be headed in the right direction and is worth a look at a decent price.

Analysis-Will enjoy the extra distance with his closing style

Fair Odds-3/1

5-Midway (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Whitewater Stables)

Midway started off 2016 on the right foot with a top class win in the Arcadia at SA but found both the Woodford Turf Classic and the King Edward BC a little too taxing and might find this distance outside his comfort zone as well. His effort as a three-year-old in the Commonwealth was a step in the right direction with an off-the-pace style that will suit him better going longer and while he did back up over this course last time, a new jockey will help him with a new style and he could be up for a minor piece late.

Analysis-Talented but needs to find the right running style

Fair Odds-8/1

6-Sri Lanka (Seven-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)

Sri Lanka used a solid effort in the Grade I Manhattan as a stepping stone to victory in the Nijinsky last year by a head but this year’s Manhattan did not go as well for him and he will have to rebound against much tougher younger rivals to hit the winner’s circle for the second time. The veteran of the group with more than $1000.000 in earnings, he was purchased by his new owner with big races in mind but recent workouts do not signal the same speed we have seen before and he will have to hold his own late if he wants to hit the board.

Analysis-Defending champ is not the same horse as last year

Fair Odds-10/1

7-Hold The Mach (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Hold The Mach has already had an excellent campaign with two big wins in the SSM Turf Sprint and the Appleton, both at GP, and off a second in the Grade I Shoemaker Mile, needs only to close into what should be a sharp pace to take down one of the top three spots. One of the top riders at WO hops aboard and he gets to sit outside of the speed and make a run at the leaders down the long stretch and there is plenty to like with this six-year-old who is closing in on $1000.000 in lifetime receipts.

Analysis-Gets that little bit of distance to work out the right trip

Fair Odds-5/1

8-Uncle Charlie (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)

Having made a name for himself in a series of allowance races, Uncle Charlie gets back to stakes company in the Nijinsky and might have the best chance of posting a major upset with the widest draw and the most under-the-radar profile. The longer the race, the farther off the pace this gelding likes to sit and with the abundance of speed to his inside, he will be trying to find a nice spot down the lane and with a sneaky inside run, he could be closing late to get all the marbles if the pace fades.

Analysis-Comes in with good form but faces tough stakes rivals

Fair Odds-6/1

Overall

The lone three-year-old in the Grade II Nijinsky Stakes should take most of the support come Sunday afternoon and with Aggravation, you get a Grade II winner who seems to thrive on racing close to the lead and should have no trouble holding his own with the extra distance in his favour. Stormy Passing finished second to the favourite in the Wise Dan but gets more ground and will also be charging late with Hold The Mach, who comes in from SA and will be hoping for a pace collapse to really make his presence felt.

Prediciton

Win-Aggravation (2/1)

Place-Stormy Passing (3/1)

Show-Hold The Mach (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES