Ack Ack – Grade III (P7) [BC]
CD Race #1 1m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.

1 Duppy Story Ajm Stables Talamo J 124 —

He had been going well over the mile running third in both the GP mile and the Metropolitan Handicap and winning at unlisted level in between. Drop a furlong and he ran like a dog in the O Brien last time and whilst I doubt the drop of one furlong was the reason for his poor effort, he will certainly be better suited back up to the mile today. His works have been a bit ordinary recently which is a worry as a six-year-old heading into October as horses can just fall apart here at HRP when their time is done. That fact however is more of a hidden trait so for the moment at least all we can say is that he ran inexplicably badly last time, but that is the exception rather than a rule for him. At his best he is a contender here, but this is a tough field.

2 One Last Punch Line Alydar Stables Vazquez R A 124 —

Another one that is difficult to weigh up as he has been switching surfaces and running over further than this recently. In true HRP style he went from winning a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint on the dirt to a 12 furlong grade three on the turf so as always it is impossible to really settle on his best trip or surface so it is a bit of a gamble as to whether the dirt mile will suit. He won the grade two San Diego Handicap in good style over a mile and sixteenth but then got too far back in the Pacific Classic last time and ran ninth and therein lay his biggest problem in winning this race. In his last six races he has run as a closer five times, and we all know how tough that is on this race engine to be consistent. The only time he was sent as a front runner recently he won the grade three Louisville, but that was 12 furlongs on the turf so we have no idea if that was instructions or race engine or indeed whether that could be repeated over a mile on the dirt. Whatever happens we know he has the ability to run very well, we know he has a good draw, and we know the trainer is a master tactician so there are ticks in boxes here if you are looking for a winner outside Fractious or Mb.

3 Investment Center TwinTowersRacing Bravo J 124 —

As all the runners from this stable are, he has been highly tried but he has responded with some good efforts. Another that finds it hard to win as a closer he certainly has been a black booker in a few runs this year most notably last time when coming from the clouds to finish second in the Iselin Stakes. He is certainly good enough if the AI can get the timing right and like the horse inside him is from a stable that knows how to win big races. I would not leave him out of calculations.

4 Rastaban Riggins Racing Husbands P 121 —

The three-year-olds proved they can beat the olders last week with just a 3Lb weight advantage so we have to start taking them seriously as we enter October. The recent work of 1.36 and 1 for the dirt mile says this one has got some of the improvement fairy dust and that can be telling at this time of year for the younger horses. The works engine and race engine however are different so what that means in an actual race we can only guess but one thing is for sure this one can run. Of course, if you look at the form of a worker like that on the dirt what do we find? Yes, its last five runs and both its wins have been on turf so once again we are left scratching our heads. If he indeed is a dirt runner disguised as a turf runner, then his turf form was pretty good and his effort in the Tapit Stakes last time was solid. He could well win or finish last, we just won’t know until they cross the line.

5 On Schedule Mb Stables Espinoza V 124 —

With half the field either from Fractious or Mb Stables our first task is to work out which of them is the stable best and that will slim this field down to a more manageable size. This six-year-old from Mb Stables has been very good in a glowing career and though he has raced equally well in sprints and routes, I do think that this trip is probably a good compromise and maybe his ideal distance. The last time he raced at a mile he won the Sexton Mile by making all the running and I think that is key as he is more of a closer in sprints which can mean that it is not their optimum trip. Despite finishing uncharacteristically out of the money in his last couple, his works say he is as good as ever and that puts him in with a great chance.

6 Red Bull D J C Racing Stables Wilson E J 121 —

A three-year-old who ran well to be third in the big-ticket Nashville Derby last time in his first ever turf race he comes back to the dirt today over a trip he has failed to win at despite three attempts. He seems to go well on an off track and that may be his best chances of winning this race, but he has been pretty consistent and is nothing but game so just maybe he could surprise again just as he did in the Nashville Derby and grab some place money.

7 Wimbledon Night Rider Stables Carmouche K 124 —

This seven-year-old’s form can be a little erratic but then he has raced in some top races on both surfaces, so we shouldn’t be too hard on him. He ran as a front runner last time ending up a strong third in the grade one Pacific Classic which was probably his best race since winning the Fort Lauderdale on the turf 9 months before. He is one of those that always has to be considered in any race he runs in and if he gets to the front today as he did last time out, it will take a good one to get past him.

8 Retaliate Fractious Gaffalione T 124 —

The outside gates are like a private race between Fractious and Mb Stables but as I said earlier with the winner likely to come from one of those stables the first thing, we have to do is work out which one is the best chance from each stable. This one was the champion sprinter right up to the BC last year where he started a strong favorite but suffered a slow start and never recovered. He was beaten again in the Malibu before the end of the year, and you had to start thinking that the then three-year-old had just been raced too hard and needed a break. He didn’t get much of one but has come back as a four-year-old in good form winning the Triple Bend two back in a race that effectively put him in the BC Sprint again. Why then is he here today? Well he certainly hasn’t been as dominant a sprinter this year, so the trainer seems to be rolling the dice to see if the mile may be the change he needs, it’s a win-win as whatever happens he will be at the BC and I see no reason why he won’t see out the mile today, so that could pose an interesting question should he taste victory in this race.

9 Axel Grinder Mb Stables Van Dyke D 121 —

Well, it’s another three-year-old working as well as the older horses but getting the 3Lbs so we have to ask the question again, does the work engine and the race engine compare well enough to give this horse a winning chance. Up until mid-summer he had looked a good grade overnight type but after winning the Curlin he went to the Travers and ran really well to be fourth in a hot field. So, it looks like his improvement curve is on the up and as I said earlier, that can be very dangerous for the older horses at this time of year. We really only have his last two to judge him on in this class and he has run well both times so whilst we won’t really know the value of his work times until after the race he has to have a decent chance.

10 Prevent Mb Stables Maldonado E 124 —

Another that has flip flopped around surfaces and is running dirt times that are right up there, so it is hard to get a line on him. His last dirt mile saw him third in the Hanshin a nose or so behind Investment Center, so his chances are probably similar to that one’s chances. I would expect the wide gate to put him as leader or stalker and a lot will depend on what happens in the first half of this race as to where he will finish. A decent sort with a winning chance.

11 Speter Fractious Bejarano R 124 —

A deep closer in a wide gate, I guess we know where this one will be going from the off. The AI has only timed his finish right once in two years so it would be unlikely that it will get it right today but of course this horse is running the same times as all the others under the works race engine, so we are clueless as to why. I have a suspicion that the trainer just might try something funky with the instructions today but having said that he ran his best race for a long time when only just beaten in the grade one Whitney last time using his closing style so maybe he will just let him run his race.

12 Gorogue Laga Fractious Baird E T 124 —

This one looked like a TC winner for a while last year but only managed to win one of the three legs when taking the Preakness. It took him a while to get over his efforts in the TC, but he ended the year with a win in the Malibu proving he was a class three-year-old. He was bought for $885.000 in the Arindel fire sale and promptly ran a good second in the Nerud but then went to the JC Gold Cup where he ended up a well beaten second last prompting the trainer to bring him back in trip again today. This horse can really throw a clunker, and he can also be brilliant so it is hard to tell which one will turn up today, but he seems to run well with wide draws so just maybe the car park draw isn’t as bad as it looks.

SUMMARY

There are so many form lines in this race with three-year-olds, turf runners and past champions in sprints and routes that it is very hard to settle on what this result will look like. The draw monster has put all the MB and Fractious runners wide…randomly…. so out of that six I think I would go for Mb’s runners in On Schedule or Axel Grinder but that is far from race over and there are plenty of other chances. The three-year-olds are certainly comparable on the works engine so if that measures up to the race engine, we could see one of the three-year-olds win but the older horses are all very strong and wont let the youngsters have it as easy as they did a few years ago.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES