The Knickerbocker (Grade 3)- $175.000 Purse
AQU- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Eighth on the Inner Turf
October 13, 2024

Sunday afternoon at AQU, we will have a field of ten taking park in the 20th running of the Knickerbocker, which is a nine-furlong race on the inner turf. The purse for the race has ranged between $100.000 and $200.000 since inception, and this year’s $175.000 amount is a slight increase over what it was last year. Speaking of the 2023 race, that was won by Wayward Prince, for Angelos Stable, and the gelding is still active with steady production since then. Let’s Do It Big Boy is a two-time winner of the Knickerbocker, doing so for RNP Stables in 2019 and 2021. Now, for those we will be seeing on Sunday. Let’s meet them:

1- Mr Toxic (Spankys Barn, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Picked up by the trainer in private sales in March for $40.000, and did not do a whole lot before the sale. Spankys Barn has done a great job, getting his maiden win in May. Two starts later, Mr Toxic was in the starting gate for the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap at SAR, where he finished ninth, but was only beaten by a length. So, if he only needed to take a bit lesser company, he gets that in theory here, but this is a very good field as well.

2- Violent Crime (Diablo Diablo, ridden by J L Ortiz)- This gelding was moved to the turf in the middle of last year, and has since gone on to win six of twelve races on the surface. He’s won multiple graded races during that time, but none bigger than in his last start, taking the top prize in the Grade 3 MTH Stakes, topping last year’s Knickerbocker winner, Wayward Prince in the process. It’s interesting that he has been on the shelf for four months since then, so hopefully that is not a sign of a potential problem with him.

3- Sioux Arrival (High Voltage, ridden by J Lezcano)- Just two weeks ago, Sioux Arrival ran second in the Grade 2 City Of Hope Mile, coming a month after running third in the DMR Mile, but in that race he was in a photo finish at the wire for the win. In each of those races, he earned triple digit SRF’s. Looking a little further back, we will see some Grade 1 efforts, including a fourth-place result in the Shoemaker Mile. Hasn’t run on short rest like this before, but usually a horse will be fine doing so on occasion.

4- Snidely Whiplash (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by An Castillo)- In his 15th start, Snidely Whiplash won at DMR. A stake? No. It’s where he broke his maiden, but the trainer was so encouraged by his long-awaited win that he entered him in the $100.000 Niagara Stakes a month later. That didn’t go well, and his SRF’s are lower than what most of competition here routinely puts out. No reason why that can’t change, but others are more appealing.

5- Saddle Soars (Lanfranco Stable, ridden by L J Luzzi)- It’s been close to two years since the last time this horse won a race, but he did have a 13-month layoff mixed in with that. Saddle Soars has made four starts since returning to the track, and while he has not won, he’s been second three times and within a length in all of them. This includes being the runner up in the $500.000 Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes in May. Wish we would be seeing more of him out on the track.

6- Chai Danger (Wolf Ridge Stables, ridden by D Davis)- You don’t have to worry about seeing this one on the track too infrequently, as the seven year old gelding is a veteran of 53 starts. One of them was last year’s Knickerbocker, where he was second in a photo. He was fine through the summer, but his last two races are very concerning to me since we are talking about an older horse with plenty of races under his belt. He was beaten considerably in each, and while the trainer is confident by entering him here, I can’t be as an observer.

7- Devils Delight (Big Jd Racing, ridden by Ru Silvera)- Claimed by the trainer for just $7.500 in January, and Big Jd Racing has gotten great results from him after that. In seven starts in his new silks, Devils Delight has three wins and three places (plus a fourth) and while none of the wins are in one of the stakes he has been in, he had a strong outing at WO last month in the $100.000 Niagara Stakes, settling for second. Seems like a stake win will happen for him sooner rather than later, and perhaps right here.

8- Tokugawa (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by K Carmouche)- Picked up by the trainer last month in the auction for $12.000, and he will begin his second tour of duty with D J C Racing Stables in this race. D J C ran him in most of 2023 before Fractious claimed him for $40.000. With Fractious, he won five times, highlighted by the $80.000 Lure Stakes, and he also has won his last two, each being an optional claimer. Plenty of graded experience with him, just no wins in one as of yet. This is a good spot for him.

9- Number Theory (Luz International, ridden by J Alvarado)- Won three of his first four races after being claimed for $18.000, with all of those being in overnights. Those results propelled him back into the stake level, and the results have been hit and miss. One of them came in his last race, in late August at BTP for the $75.000 Buckeye Native, which was not technically his turf debut, but it had been three years. Ran second there and prepares to face a tougher crowd in this one.

10- Prom King (Mb Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Took part in the BC Mile last year, but didn’t beat anyone. He would then take that out on his opponents over his next three races, winning them all, including the Grade 2 Fort Marcy right here in May. We haven’t seen a lot of him since, and in July, he was dropped into an open allowance at SAR and placed fourth. That is the last time he has raced, but the trainer may get rewarded for his patience if a work on October 1st is any indication of what he can do here.

Prediction: 7-3-8-10

— NS

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES