Raven Run – Grade II
KEE Race #4 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $350.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 Tracking Device Spankys Barn Gaffalione T 122 —
Fetched $95.000 at auction after an improved third in the Victory Road where she went down by a neck into third place. That run came off the back of two good wins at overnight level so I think this is a safe bet for the stable that this filly will be competitive here and going forward. Her works are strong but that means very little these days, but it is her improving form that I like. She raced from a widish gate in the Victory Road and stuck on really gamely and this gate will suit her racing style far better as she will look to go up on the speed and out battle her rivals.
2 Prosecutor D J C Racing Stables Lezcano J 122 —
She has been solid this year running some good placings at stakes level, third in the Audubon Oaks over this trip, she again gets a favorable draw and whilst she may not have the exposure of some at this level, she certainly has shown enough to be competitive. I guess she doesn’t have the X factor that a few may look to have at least not yet and that would make me hold fire on tipping her for the win, but the stable has been in good form and there is no reason she isn’t a top four chance from this handy draw.
3 Lil Sunshine Threshold Velazquez J R 122 —
A grade one winner and right alongside Tracking Device in the Victory Road she hasn’t really kicked on from her two-year-old form but if she can run up to that is a real chance.
4 Madam Dime Asgar Lopez P 122 —
She has perhaps looked a little better on an off track with a two from two record in those conditions including a good win in the Prioress the time before last. She showed she can still run in the dry with a fast finishing third in the Dogwood last time and if there is any early speed that could play nicely into her hands. Don’t expect to see her early but if there’s a 22 and something opening quarter, she will be one of the fastest at the end.
5 Upstream La Canada Racehorses Bridgmohan S X 122 —
Another purchased from the Fractious fire sale in the last auction she fetched a similar price to Tracking Device at $95.000 and is a pretty similar filly on form so far. She was on a roll of four wins in a row including the Jersey Girl heading into the Test last time at grade one and ran well from a bad draw to be fifth after making the early running. She will need a bit more restraint than she showed in the Test, but this draw will help and if she can settle into the stalk, she could well have the ability to hold off the challengers.
6 Star Sapphire Fractious Prat F 122 —
Having three in the race that were sold from this barn at auction the trainer will be eager for this one to beat those entries and you would expect that to be the case as this filly was not sold at auction. A fast finishing third in the Test beating Upstream she is a closer by nature and this stable has been one of the few that has had success at using that tactic. It will be a case of positioning from this draw as she finds herself in the squeeze box but if she can get the timing right, she is a definite winning chance.
7 Prevail Fractious Franco M 122 —
A stable mate to Star Sapphire and as we see so often the stable mates are drawn together by the “random” draw. Bought from Arindel for $121.000 she had been running over longer trips, taking the Princess Elizabeth along the way, however the new owner has taken her back to sprints since buying her and that has shown success. She beat her stable mate in the Open Mind last time and with that filly having a good winning chance it must make her a very good winning chance. Another closer it will be interesting to see if both the stable runners are held up for a late run or one of them is tried on the speed, we of course won’t know that until the race is over.
8 Crackle Mb Stables Garcia Mar 122 —
Another bought from Fractious, this time for $60.000 she has yet to show the form of some here, but her works suggest she is far better than her one ungraded stakes placing. She won an allowance over this trip at LAD before running on the pace in the Maryfield Stakes and being collared late for second. She would need to step up on her form, but her works say she is up to this and if she can get cleanly away and not be hung out from this draw, she would have an each way chance.
9 Nazca Lines Delta Farms Pennington F 122 —
Probably the most accomplished in the field on the balance of her form, she has raced in top company mostly in routes but sprinted well in the Princess Rooney last time when third. She was four from her last four heading into the KYO having won both the Davona Dale and The Fantasy but a bad draw and some poor AI decisions in that race saw her running on from an impossible position to be fifth. She held her form well enough going close in the Acorn and the CCA Oaks but a disappointing effort in the Alabama saw her trainer bring her back in trip for the Princess Rooney last time. She has been more of a closer which may explain why she hasn’t won recently and like a few of the other principles she will have to find a favorable race engine to get to the post at the right time.
10 Stoke Luz International Luzzi L J 122 —
Running well on turf or dirt, routes or sprints she is another that shows there is little difference in the racing at HRP performing well in any conditions. She ran well in the Prioress last time when third to Madame Dime which certainly gives her a chance as she may not have been so favored by the off track that day. Her consistency and adaptability are big ticks, and she won the Ruthless over this trip so there is plenty to like but this wide draw won’t make it easy in an even field.
11 Killeacle Girl The Sidley Stud Hernandez R M 122 —
Out in the car park we find The Chillingworth Stakes winner. My fear for her is that that lifetime best run came from an inside draw and the last time she was car park drawn was in the Victory Road where she disappointed against a few of her rivals in this race. A lot will depend on where she can get in transit from the start, but if the race engine works for her then she has every right to have a decent chance.
SUMMARY
A tight race, but I think we have to go for Nazca Lines despite a difficult draw. If you line up form, she just comes out on top whereas if you line up works this is a 11-way dead heat so we can only go with what we can see and hope that the race engine works for the wide draws. The chances don’t end there, and it is difficult to say that any of the fillies couldn’t win so it may pay to just stick a pin in to find the exacta and box it up.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
