SAR Derby – Grade I
SAR Race #8 1 3/16m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $750.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Free Casino Team 7 Illusions Gutierrez Mario 122 —

The gelding has dabbled at this level in the KD Juvenile but came up short and hasn’t really improved markedly in his efforts since. His works certainly look competitive, but his form is just good overnight form at the moment, so he does have to step up a fair way for this. May be the pace influence from this draw although will have his work cut out against the wide gate speed push.

2 Bitcoin Bobby Robeth Franco M 122 —

Had a go at the TC after showing up on turf as a juvenile but never really got to grips with the dirt after a good fourth in the Holy Bull. His two starts back on the grass have both been on an off track so maybe if it is dry today, he could be the dark horse here. A hard closing third in the American Turf and again closing into fifth in the Pennine Ridge he ran his usual style, but that wet track form can be very unreliable. I would be looking at him as a decent each-way choice.

3 Iamaleava Royalty Stables Geroux F 122 —

Wins a maiden by a neck and is now working faster than grade one winning Ello Santa, go figure ay, HRP does not make much sense at times. But maybe, just maybe that work is no fluke and that maiden win was enough to throw him up his improvement curve into the realms of a grade one winner, well it happens at HRP so I wouldn’t be doubting it. The trainer has been in good form recently and they clearly have a high opinion of this one and that is good enough for me to watch him very closely.

4 Fourth Estate High Voltage Prat F 122 —

A deep closer since changing hands for $101.000, he struggled a bit till a good win in the Snow Chief saw him run a cracker at longer odds when second in the grade one BEL Derby. He was gaining on the winner, Ello Santa all the way to the line but you would have to say a form reversal looks a tall order today. Looks the obvious Exacta choice.

5 Booze Cruise Team 7 Illusions Cabrera D 122 —

Well, with one entry drawn the rail and an on-speed type and one with a middle draw with more of a closing nature I think I can work out how this race will go for the trainer today. Lightly raced, but the winner of two he will be looking for a crazy fast pace and then a late finish so it will all come down to some tactical games.

6 Darrow Mb Stables Lopez P 122 —

Likely to stalk his stable mate and a win really wouldn’t surprise. Very good over the mile in the Manilla last time he had been a shade disappointing since his win in the SUN Derby and whilst he is a high-class sort and a very fast worker, maybe the fastest in the field, I just have reservations about him. Having said that he has won five from nine and I know the trainer likes him so he must be a big hope.

7 Sunflowers TwinTowersRacing Lezcano J 122 —

If the ground comes up wet, then he may just come into this, but he was poor in the BEL Derby on a dry track last time, so I am not sure he is a winning chance in those conditions. Just the one win in a maiden but there is nothing wrong with a 1.35 flat turf work from a three-year-old so I certainly wouldn’t say he has no hope.

8 Ello Santa Mb Stables Velazquez J R 122 —

Normally I would say the wide gate is a disadvantage but with his running style I think the wide gate speed push may be a positive and see him fire into a comfortable lead. Four from four on the turf and two from two over this trip he looks the obvious choice especially when you consider his easy win in the BEL Derby last time. Tactics will be key as always.

SUMMARY

There is a bit of speed in this race so it will be interesting to see what happens through the first half mile. We could see two very different races depending on scenarios. One where a horse goes into the lead and wins unchallenged and one where several fight for the front and a late closer gobbles them up late. Only the race engine knows the answer to that so we just have to go with what we can see and what we can see is Ello Santa looking too good. If there was a value bet, for me that would be Iamaleava.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES