The Jerkens Memorial – Grade I
SAR Race #10 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.00 For Three Year Olds.
1 Serenade Grace Team 7 Illusions Franco M 122
You wouldn’t expect a claiming winner last time out to be much of a chance in a grade one but when they come from a stable in such great form at the moment and won that claimer in a sub 1.09 race time you have to look very carefully. He broke his maiden on the 11th of June in a maiden claimer after six goes and is now a contender in a grade one, don’t you just love HRP!
Of course he has to take a giant step up, of course he shouldn’t be a serious chance, but his works are only a shade slower than the best of this field so write him off at your peril from a gate that could see him arriving late up the rail.
2 Turning Point TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 122
Like so many horses these days he is a closer that arrives too late or a stalker that weakens but going on his huge late run to be fourth in the Amsterdam last time his best chance today maybe from coming late. That of course sets up its own challenges from gate two but sometimes this seven-furlong trip can throw up a trip specialist and he just may turn out to be that.
3 Gold State Mb Stables Velazquez J R 122
You would think after his big late finishes over ten furlongs in both the KYD and the BEL that this seven furlongs will be far too short for him but that is not how HRP really works. Very often sprinting types turn into deep closers in longer races just because the race engine knows no other way to save stamina so what we may see as a horse that needs further can often turn out to be a horse that needs shorter. That may be the case with this talented son of Great State especially when you look at his win in an SA Allowance early in the year when he had no trouble keeping up with a 45 and 1 split in a six-furlong race. Whichever theory you believe in, he will be a big chance in this race.
4 Balestier Road Mb Stables Prat F 122
With three runners and three closers in this race it will leave things open to some gaming buttons from the GOAT trainer. I am not sure they really need to tamper too much with running style though as this one won the Amsterdam last time beating his stable mate and rival today and that is the perfect form leading into this. He will look to launch late again but looking at the works at least (yes, I know they mean next to nothing) he is held by Gold State.
5 Highway Robber Mb Stables Lopez P 122
This could very easily turn int a trifecta for Mb Stables as the Amsterdam runner up will look to run into third for the trainer. Having said that, he is working identically to Gold State and faster than the horse that beat him in the Amsterdam so who knows, maybe he is the more likely winner. Box ’em up to be safe.
6 Ineedu2party Maxmillion Farm Roman K 122
Made all to win the Stephens with Highway Robber behind and if he gets to the lead today and with so many wanting to close late, he may just slip away here and be un-catchable. The speed map says he can win.
7 Kara France Royalty Stables Ortiz I Jr 122
The wide gate and a deep closer says he will go way back to last and run home late for yet another “promising” effort. You have to feel for owners of horses like this because most of the time you can do nothing about their running style and just rely on the race engine to give them a chance. Maybe an aggressive fast instruction would spice up this race a little but that is a big gamble and although it could come off, it could also see him hung out wide for the turn and give him no chance. Good enough to win, but I have been saying that all year!
SUMMARY
This race looks like it maps perfectly for Ineedu2party who looks like he will get an uncontested lead but at the end of the day nothing is that predictable at HRP and a few clicks of gaming buttons will make this race look very different. I have always liked Gold State and think that this may be his trip so I will take a dead heat between the two.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES