AQU’s Maid of the Mist is a $200.000 State-Bred stake for two-year-old fillies going one mile on dirt (Race 5, 10/25/2025). With several proven speeds stretching out and a pair of fillies bringing graded stakes credentials, this shapes up as a genuinely run mile where tactical position matters. Based on current form and route experience against graded company, Ukraine Be Free gets the narrow nod.

Horse-by-Horse Preview (projected odds)

1) Take The Hiway — Bears Stable / Jockey: A. Jimenez — 4-1
A perfect 3-for-3 to start her career, including the Lady Finger at FL where she controlled things up front and finished strongly at 5½f. She’s shown speed in every start and now stretches to a mile for the first time. Pedigree and a sharp 7f work (1:24.2 at AQU) suggest she can carry it, but this is a deeper field with other pace elements. Major pace player with upside at the trip.

2) Real Tactics — Mb Stables / Jockey: J. L. Ortiz — 7-2
Debut MdSpWt winner at AQU (4½f) and a 5½f allowance winner at PID, both with strong figures for the division. Came back to the Lady Finger and was compromised behind a quick leader, finishing midpack. She’s fast enough to secure a stalking spot and her two wins hint she can finish; the new one-mile test is the only unanswered question. Contender on talent and connections.

3) Vervain — Riggins Racing / Jockey: I. Castillo — 12-1
1-for-1, wiring a 5f turf maiden at MNR. She’s trained on and has a series of stamina works, but this will be her first start on dirt and first attempt beyond five furlongs. If her speed translates to the main track, she’s a wild card for the pace; otherwise, class and surface rise make this a demanding spot.

4) Sizzling Shark — Emerald Racing Inc / Jockey: P. Husbands — 8-1
Improved with distance and broke her maiden going one mile at AQU, finishing off well after sitting close. Prior tries at 6f–7½f showed steady progression, and she’s held her form since being claimed. With a mile win already on the page and recent local works, she profiles as a tracking type who can get first run if the speeds come back.

5) Ukraine Be Free — La Canada Racehorses / Jockey: J. Lezcano — 3-1 (Top Pick)
Arrives with the most tested route resume: a win at one mile (MTH stakes), a runner-up in the G3 Pocahontas (CD, 1m), and a solid fourth in the G1 Frizette (AQU, 1m) after racing in the first flight. Consistently competitive around two turns/one mile and keeps a rider who fits her stalking style. The combination of state-bred eligibility, graded experience, and proven mile stamina makes her the filly to beat.

6) Zifi — Mb Stables / Jockey: F. Prat — 10-1
Speedy juvenile who blazed home in a 5½f AQU maiden and later tried deeper waters, most recently a respectable fifth in the G2 Oak Leaf (1 1/16m). The stretch to a mile is within reach given that effort, and she owns early foot to secure position. If she relaxes early, she’s capable of sticking around for a share.

7) Sherbini — D J C Racing Stables / Jockey: S. Elliott — 10-1
Blew away a 4½f AQU maiden on debut, then placed third in a 7f N1X after settling midpack and keeping on. That hints at some finish as distances increase. This is her first mile, but her form is steady, and she’s handled different race shapes. Useful price player if the leaders soften late.

8) Spicy Lilah — Night Rider Stables / Jockey: J. Rosario — 8-1
Crushed an open 1-mile allowance at BTP, showing pace and drawing clear. Prior stakes tries at 5½f–6f were tougher; her mile win suggests the longer trip suits. She’s another who can be involved early, and the rider switch to Rosario is notable. In the mix if she repeats that BTP mile performance.

9) Hi Sara — Paradise Stable / Jockey: E. Cancel — 15-1
Took a 6½f AQU maiden in start two, pressing and finishing off well. Lightly raced with upside, but she’s tackling a mile for the first time while jumping into stakes company. If she relaxes behind the quicker fillies, she could pass some late; a slice seems more likely at this stage.

Pace Picture & Prediction

Plenty of early speed/signs of intent from Take The Hiway, Spicy Lilah, Zifi, and potentially Vervain, with Sizzling Shark and Real Tactics stalking just behind. That should create an honest to fast pace for the one-mile trip. The filly best positioned to capitalize is Ukraine Be Free, who has repeatedly handled mile/route tempos against tougher open company.

Predicted Order: Ukraine Be Free over Real Tactics, Sizzling Shark, and Take The Hiway.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded