Cardinal
CD Race #3 1 1/8m Turf Stake
Purse $300.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
1 Nijinsky Team 7 Illusions Corrales G 124 —
If there is a horse in training that deserves a win it is this one after ten second places, that’s almost half of the five-year-olds 23 starts. 5 of those seconds have come in her last five races and she couldn’t have got much closer to the win than last time in the Dowager when beaten by a nose.
She has a frustrating running style which means the engine pretty much dictates her finishing position, but all things point to her first win of the season coming today.
2 Train Station TwinTowersRacing Franco M 124 —
A decent sort as she proved when beaten a length in the Matchmaker, she certainly has the ability to be a winner here and has a great draw to sit just off the speed and launch down the stretch.
3 Key To The Chase Team 7 Illusions Bejarano R 122 —
The three-year-olds have definitely caught up with the older horses now so even with just three starts and one win this filly must be given a chance even though she is only getting two pounds from some experienced stakes horses. I am not sure I would give this one a winning chance in real life but November at HRP tends to see these types winning these sorts of races.
4 Eighteen Ninety Two Mo Mentum Farm Conner T 122 —
A well tested three-year-old, she has run some very nice races but doesn’t seem the easiest to win with. The stakes form has been very good but when she has been dropped into overnights, she has failed to win which may call into question her heart in a finish. Of course, we do have to take into account the lack of a class system so the runs in lesser company weren’t really “lesser” company, but it still remains that her single win from nine starts is a worry. Her works are very good and with the weight allowance puts her in a good spot to get win number two for the year.
5 Bronxbabesarebest Big Jd Racing Velazquez J R 124 —
Rounding out the field is this decent four-year-old that may just use the wide gate speed push to run them along early. If the splits are in her favor, she could slip away and with a few looking to close late she could be a length clear hitting the stretch and be tough to pull back.
SUMMARY
I can never work out why there are $100.000 races that are oversubscribed and then races like this carrying a $300.000 purse that draw short. Even though we only have five here it is an intriguing race where everything will have its chance. The race engine may dictate the result in the end so it is tough to predict but I would expect the wide horse to lead and the three-year-old to stalk. Whether the late finishers get the pace they need to run them down is a mystery, so I have decided to go for Key To The Chase to stalk the leaders and get first run on her stable companion. I base this not on form or works but merely on the fact that three-year-olds are starting to get their advantage over the older horses and lightly raced three-year-olds seem to be the way to go.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded