The $100.000 Hobbs Fall Classic takes center stage at Zia Park on December 16, 2025, presenting a 6 1/2-furlong test on the main dirt track exclusively for two-year-old colts and geldings foaled in New Mexico. As a prestigious State Bred stakes event, this race has a notable history dating back to 2013 and has produced numerous champions of the New Mexico-bred division. The Hobbs Fall Classic carries weight penalties for recent stakes winners, with all runners assigned 120 pounds unless they’ve captured graded or open stakes since late 2024. Past winners include Glacial Till (2023), Ladies Want Me (2022), and Hand Cannon (2021). Among connections with previous success, T Boy Racing has captured two editions (2020, 2022), while Jive Inc. won twice (2021, 2023) and John Henry captured the 2018 running. Jockey Armando Juarez Jr. won in both 2018 and 2022. The race has attracted a competitive field of six talented New Mexico-bred sophomores, each seeking to add their names to this prestigious list of winners and establish themselves as the top State Bred juvenile in the Land of Enchantment.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
The Wrong Guy represents Night Rider Stables with Felipe Da Silva (10/1 odds) in the irons. This bay colt by Hard To Deny has won two of three career starts while earning $16.080, posting his best speed figure of 96. His most recent outing on October 8 at Finger Lakes saw him win a claiming race at five furlongs by one length after rallying from sixth in the early stages. He was claimed for $5.000 afterward. Prior to that on June 13, he broke his maiden at Ruidoso Downs by one length at 5 1/2 furlongs after pressing the pace. He was auctioned for $11.010 in early September. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a bullet five-furlong breeze in 58 seconds at Zia Park on December 12. While his speed figures are competitive and he’s shown improvement, the class jump from claiming company to this stakes level and his limited experience at today’s distance raise questions about his ability to compete with proven stakes runners.
Brandy Palace represents The Sidley Stud with Frank Valdez (2/1 odds) guiding this black gelding by Lucky Brandy. With two wins from three career starts and earnings of $41.600, he brings solid credentials to this assignment. His most recent effort on November 24 saw him finish second by 1/2 lengths in the $150.000 New Mexico Champions Juvenile Stakes at Zia Park at six furlongs after setting the pace throughout. Prior to that on October 6 at Finger Lakes, he won an allowance race at 5 1/2 furlongs by a nose after pressing the pace. Earlier on August 21, he broke his maiden at Beulah Park at one mile by 1 1/4 lengths after controlling the pace. He was gelded in early August. His recent workouts show consistent preparation. His tactical speed, proven ability at Zia Park, and strong performance in the New Mexico Champions Juvenile make him a legitimate threat, though his narrow loss in that race leaves questions about whether he can turn the tables on rivals.
Dirty Harry brings limited credentials for John Henry with Edwin Maldonado (15/1 odds) aboard this bay colt by State Police. Winless from two career starts with earnings of just $4.120, he enters off a third-place finish on October 24 at Albuquerque at five furlongs after setting the pace. Prior to that on September 20, he finished eighth at Albuquerque at 6 1/2 furlongs in his debut. His recent workouts show consistent preparation, including a five-furlong breeze in 58.4 seconds at Los Alamitos on December 9. While he’s shown flashes of early speed in his limited starts, his winless record and modest speed figures suggest he’s significantly overmatched against this quality field of proven New Mexico-bred stakes runners.
Rattler King represents T Boy Racing with Armando Juarez Jr. (5/2 odds) riding this bay colt by Timber Rattler. With two wins from four career starts and earnings of $115.040, he brings strong credentials despite his recent setback. His most recent outing on November 24 saw him finish fifth in the New Mexico Champions Juvenile Stakes at Zia Park after pressing the pace. Prior to that on October 12, he won the $160.000 New Mexico Thoroughbred Futurity at Albuquerque at six furlongs by one length after stalking the pace throughout, carrying 120 pounds. Before that on September 20, he broke his maiden at Albuquerque at 6 1/2 furlongs by one length after setting the pace. His recent workouts are limited but show some preparation. His New Mexico Thoroughbred Futurity victory demonstrated his class at the highest level of State Bred competition, and with Juarez aboard (who has won this race twice), he carries 122 pounds due to his recent stakes victory. His tactical speed and proven class make him a serious threat to rebound from his disappointing Champions Juvenile effort.
Hooah ships in for Luz International with Luis Fuentes (8/1 odds) guiding this black gelding by Final Delivery. With two wins from four career starts and earnings of $25.990, he enters off a sixth-place finish on November 24 in the New Mexico Champions Juvenile Stakes after racing in the back of the pack. Prior to that on October 17, he won an allowance race at Albuquerque at 6 1/2 furlongs by a head after pressing the pace. He was claimed for $32.000 earlier in his campaign. Earlier on July 18, he finished third at Saratoga in a claiming race. He broke his maiden at Beulah Park on May 21 by one length and was gelded shortly after. His recent workouts show solid preparation, including a five-furlong breeze in 58.3 seconds at Retama Park on December 5. While he’s shown ability in allowance company and won at today’s distance, his poor performance in the Champions Juvenile and claiming-level background suggest he may lack the class necessary to compete with this field’s top contenders.
Police Authority completes the field for John Henry with Alfredo Perez (12/1 odds) aboard this chestnut colt by Good Authority. With one win from just two career starts and earnings of $13.200, he enters as a lightly raced prospect. His most recent outing on October 24 at Albuquerque saw him break his maiden by a head at five furlongs after stalking the pace. Prior to that on September 20, he finished ninth at Albuquerque at 6 1/2 furlongs in his debut. His recent workouts show consistent preparation, including a six-furlong breeze in 1:11.1 at Los Alamitos on December 9. While his maiden victory was hard-fought and his speed figures are competitive, his limited experience with just two career starts and lack of stakes competition suggest he’s facing a significant class jump in this spot.
Pace Scenario and Prediction
The pace structure should develop with Brandy Palace and Rattler King likely battling for the early lead, both having demonstrated consistent gate speed and the ability to control the tempo from the front. The Wrong Guy may also factor into the early pace discussion based on his recent running style, while Police Authority has shown tactical speed to press the pace. Dirty Harry will likely press the pace as well based on his recent efforts. Hooah appears more inclined to settle in mid-pack before attempting his late rally.
The projected winner is Brandy Palace, who brings the best combination of recent form, tactical speed, and proven effectiveness at Zia Park to this State Bred assignment. His narrow second-place finish in the New Mexico Champions Juvenile Stakes at this track demonstrated his ability to compete at the highest level of State Bred competition, and the slight cutback from six furlongs to 6 1/2 furlongs should suit his running style perfectly. With Valdez able to control the pace from the front or press just behind the leaders, Brandy Palace should have every opportunity to secure his third career victory. Rattler King appears the most dangerous threat with his New Mexico Thoroughbred Futurity victory and proven class, though carrying 122 pounds and coming off a disappointing effort leave questions. Hooah could factor with his tactical versatility and proven effectiveness at today’s distance, while The Wrong Guy, Police Authority, and Dirty Harry round out the field with all needing significant improvement to threaten the top contenders in this competitive New Mexico-Bred stakes event.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded