August 30, 2016
The Grade I DMR Debutante starts off the road to the Grade I BC Juvenile Fillies but unlike previous editions, only four horses were entered and only one of them is a stakes winner, making the field that much more difficult to actually handicap. Someone is going to win and that will almost assure them a spot in the starting gate for the biggest race of the year but choosing who will add their name to a list that includes Told You So, Roundheel and Short Dog will not be easy, with any of the quartet capable of stepping up.
1-Arcadia Bluffs (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
A maiden claiming winner on the turf and a N2L claiming winner on the dirt, Arcadia Bluffs is being asked to do a lot in the Debutante off a 64-1 upset and on paper, might very well be the longest shot on the board. Speed ratings have stalled, she has never been farther than five-furlongs and even with decent workouts, still has to outrun three other rivals in this field and if they all move forward, she might not be fast enough to contend for the win.
Analysis-Inside runner has not been quick enough to win
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Rollergirl (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
Rollergirl was highly touted after some incredible workouts early in the year but only has a single maiden win from three starts to show for everything and actually failed as the 3-2 favourite in the Adirondack at SAR last time out. She was saddled with the outside post and that might have forced her to use more energy than she needed but she could not last at 6.5-furlongs and is now being asked to go longer, which is not a good sign if you are taking her at a short price.
Analysis-Favoured in each start so be weary at low odds
Fair Odds-2/1
3-Hateuscuztheyaintus (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Mare Racing)
Hateuscuztheyaintus has two wins and a second from three career starts but two of those efforts have been dead heats including a joint victory last time in the CTBA, making her a top choice with some serious caveats. Her speed rating last time is the best in the small field and she has been the best in workouts as of late but plenty in this field have speed and if she is caught up in a duel, the distance might be her undoing with others ready to pounce in the crucial final furlong.
Analysis-Speed makes her vulnerable to closers
Fair Odds-3/1
4-Snow Peak (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Snow Peak actually sat off the pace in her debut at LAD and came on to score a 23-1 upset for owner Mb Stables, facilitating a move to DMR and a start against a field that came up decidedly weaker than past years. She does not have the profile of a Debutante winner but faces a potential speed duel to her inside and if she can improve, she might be able to run down the speed in the lane and score a first win for one of the top owners in HRP history.
Analysis-Could benefit from all the inside pace
Fair Odds-4/1
Overall
Rollergirl is probably the class of the Grade I DMR Debutante and while she will go to the post as the favourite on Saturday, she still only has a single victory from three career starts and will have to handle the added distance up front if she wants to add that second career win. Hateuscuztheyaintus is the only stakes winner in the field but that came in a co-victory and she might be in tough with pressure up front while Snow Peak should be the best chance to come from off the pace and should get an ideal set-up for her closing kick.
Prediction
Win-Rollergirl (2/1)
Place-Hateuscuztheyaintus (3/1)
Show-Snow Peak (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
