Natalma Stakes – Grade I [BC]
WO   Race #3   1m   Turf   Graded Stake
Purse $250.000  For Fillies Two Years Old.

1 Tunn Up, trained by Australia Wide
Claimed from Night Rider Stables after scraping home in a maiden claimer she was given plenty of time before trying to earn some of that claim back. Reappearing 3 months later she easily won a statebred allowance at DMR and given her unbeaten record and the ace draw you would think she would be well fancied in this. The only question mark about her is the surface though as both of her wins and most of her public works have all been on dirt. Her conformation doesnt suggest turf either but her wiley old trainer wont have put her in this for the run so it will be interesting to see how she goes.

2 Cinis, trained by M.b.o Racing Stable
This daughter of Ashkalani has far more obvious claims than Tunn Up after scooting home in a high level allowance and having some of the best turf works in the field. She gets Saez again who has ridden her in both her starts and with proven stamina, good form on the surface and those blistering works she must be among the favourites to take this out.

3 Free Loading, Pumpkin Racing
Another unbeaten filly she has even better turf form but does have a small question mark hanging over her. A strong winner of The Bolton Landing in a winning time that wouldnt be out of place in a four year old stakes race she also has great work times to back that up. The question mark might be the trip however as the furthest she has been is six and a half furlongs on the race track. Her mile work time compared to her six furlong work time suggest she may not be finishing as strongly as some but we wont really know that until they hit the stretch today. She will definitely be amongst the best chances.

4 Phunk, trained by Eastern Equine
One of the more experienced in the field she is certainly working well enough to get involved in this. All of her races have been on this track including a nice on the speed second in The Shady Well last time. She was beaten by Sheneedsa Brazilian in that race and she may struggle to turn the tables on that one especially as she has looked a bit weak at the end of her sprint races. Having said that maybe a little restraint and she could surprise.

5 Skeleton City, trained by Mb Stables
Highly tried after winning on debut she ran a nice fifth in The My Dear before a game third in the Bolton Landing. She hasnt tackled this trip yet but looks like she will appreciate it especially when you look at her nice work back at the end of August. She was well held by Free Loading in her last start but does look like she will be one of the few running on at the end of this.

6 Danger, trained by Joshua Stables
An easy debut winner last month she is an unknown quantity but like just about every horse on HRP is working within a few tenths of the best of them so could easily extend her unbeaten run without being a  shock winner. Whatever she does today she will only improve.

7 Snappy Ruler, trained by D J C Racing Stables
Won three in a row before a brave second in the Seeking The Ante. All four of her races have been on dirt but her recent turf breeze suggests she can act on this surface. The likely front runner she may struggle to see out the mile.

8 Girl With Red Shoes, trained by John Henry
Bought for just fifty dollars from Blushing Meadows after gamely dead heating for the CTBA Stakes she has since made it three in a row since winning a competitive allowance at SAR. All of her races to date have been on dirt but her recent works suggest she is atleast as good if not better on turf so the switch shouldnt be an issue. Her trainer has certainly started to hit their straps since spending up a storm and this is another one from the yard who could threaten the winners place.

9 K T D, trained by Aer Stables
Second in the form race for this, the Bolton Landing, that run puts her right in the mix. I am liking the fact that she won her maiden over a longer trip and her works suggest this trip will suit so apart from a difficult draw she must have a decent chance of getting some here.

10 New Girl, trained by Mb Stables
Two from two with a big break between races she was very impressive in her last start over a mile and sixteenth and is certainly a big hope. The draw will be a challenge but she is sure to stay the trip which is a big plus as many of them have a question mark on that point. It may all come down to where she ends up in transit and what the pace is as to her winning chance but if she was drawn a few inside i would be very strong on her chances.

11 She Needsa Brazilian, trained by Hawaiian Shirt Guy
I liked the way she won The Shady Well and that was her third win in a row so she is certainly in great form. Her works are showing a  steady improvement so i expect a big run from her if she can overcome the draw.

12 Romantic Nebraska, trained by Drabfantasy
The most experienced in the field she has two black type wins to her name already. She has proved how versatile she is by winning the Rio Grande Senorita on the dirt last time and the Skidmore on the turf before that but has yet to tackle a route trip and couple that with the car park draw and she is tough to pick for the win.

SUMMARY
As usual this is a tight field with just a few tenths separating them in their work times. unfortunately the winner will be the one who gets the run and it really could be any of them so whatever you pick you can make a good argument but will have to rely on the race engine. I like She Needsa Brazilian but she will have to run very well from her draw, the same applies to New Girl. Outside those two i like Cinis who has a good draw and proven turf form.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES