MTH Cup – Grade III

Monmouth Park – Nine Furlongs Grade Three – $350.00 Purse

Black Swan Event – John Henry / Bridgmohan S X

Current Form:

• Won WO allowance on 11 Jun, finishing “1no” with a 96 figure.
• 2026 record: 4 starts, 1 win, best figure 94.

Works:

• 8 Jul SAR 6f 1:10.1 (2/108).
• 2 Jul PRX 5f :57.3 (1/21).

Trainer/Jockey:

• John Henry 2026: 234 starts, 40 wins (.17).
• Bridgmohan 2026: 346 starts, 68 wins (.20).

Summary

He has tended to flatter to deceive a little although with 16 starts and 4 wins still has time to develop more consistency at this level. Bought from Team 7 Illusions in their stable ‘slim down’ for $125.00, he had lost his way a little, but the new trainer found his old form with a gutsy allowance win last time and he may be finding his peak again. The draw is sticky if he gets too far back so he probably needs to be no worse than midpack in the run.

Classic Look – Nakamura Stables / Centeno D E

Current Form:

• Graded‑stakes consistent; 2026 best figure 102 (SanPas‑G2).
• Last three races: 91, 98, 98.

Works:

• 9 Jul MTH 6f 1:10 (1/71).
• 8 Jun MTH 6f 1:10 (1/15).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Nakamura Stables 2026: 1437 starts, 235 wins (.16).
• Centeno 2026: 353 starts, 68 wins (.19).

Summary

The five-year-old had a good year last year and when he took the San Pasqual on seasonal debut looked to be heading to the top ranks. His last four starts have just been OK though and he hasn’t really looked like winning, so he does have something to prove today. The draw will allow him an easy run behind the speed and if he is at his best he is a definite contender.

Never Hold Back – The Sidley Stud / Elliott S

Current Form:

• Won SalMil‑G3 at MTH on 13 Jun, finishing “11” with a 99 figure.
• 2026 record: 4 starts, 2 wins, best figure 98.

Works:

• 28 Jun AQU 6f 1:10.1 (2/57).
• 6 May PRX 1m 1:36 (1/28).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Sidley Stud 2026: 1488 starts, 233 wins (.16).
• Elliott 2026: 608 starts, 157 wins (.26).

Summary

This seven-year-old veteran of 35 races proved he still has what it takes when winning the Salvatore Mile last time. His last two races have seen him push for the lead a new tactic either inspired by the gaming buttons or just by chance but either way he may look to lead again today, and he is certainly capable of taking it all the way.

Fried Chicken – Angelos Stable / Velazquez J R

Current Form:

• 3rd in Gold Cup‑G2 on 25 May with 101 figure.
• 2026 record: 4 starts, 0 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third, best figure 100.

Works:

• 17 Jun WO 6f 1:10.1 (1/8).
• 28 Jun WO 7f 1:22.3 (1/1).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Angelos Stable 2026: 575 starts, 71 wins (.12).
• Velazquez 2026: 524 starts, 137 wins (.26).

Summary

This horse has always had ability, but he is one of those that can be brilliant one day and ordinary the next. That inconsistency may come down to his closing style which has seen so many very good horses consigned to the same assessment although his last three races has seen three good placings and at least some consistency. If the race engine decides to send something today and runs some suicidal fractions, then he could well power past them late.

El Gran Cambio – Bears Stable / Aviles Y

Current Form:

• 5th in SalMil‑G3 on 13 Jun with 95 figure.
• 2026 record: 4 starts, 1 win, 1 second, best figure 97.

Works:

• 8 Jun MTH 7f 1:24 (1/1).
• 19 Apr LS 7f 1:23.4 (1/1).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Bears Stable 2026: 595 starts, 108 wins (.18).
• Aviles 2026: 626 starts, 131 wins (.21).

Summary

A solid type though he may surprise it does seem like he is finding the end of his career. Probably better in overnights these days he found his peak last year and may be on his way down.

Louisiana Asset – Big Jd Racing / Rodriguez A R

Current Form:

• Ran 102 in Met Mile‑G1 on 6 Jun.
• 2026 record: 5 starts, 1 win, best figure 102.

Works:

• 4 Jul MTH 6f 1:10 (1/53).
• 17 Jun AQU 6f 1:10 (1/35).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Big Jd Racing 2026: 511 starts, 73 wins (.14).
• Rodriguez 2026: 798 starts, 260 wins (.33).

Summary

Another deep closing type so another whose form looks up and down through no fault of his own. When he gets it right or rather the race engine gets it right he has an excellent turn of foot but he will need things to go his way today. A winning chance.

Brave Storm – Simmer Down Stable / Marin S

Current Form:

• Won MTH N3X on 6 Jun, finishing “11” with 96 figure.
• 2026 record: 3 starts, 2 wins, best figure 98.

Works:

• 20 Jun MTH 5f :58 (1/6).
• 14 Jun MTH 5f :58.1 (2/21).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Simmer Down Stable 2026: 455 starts, 117 wins (.26).
• Marin 2026: 141 starts, 21 wins (.15).

Summary

Seven wins from thirteen starts he could be a great $30.00 claim if he can turn that into stakes form today. A bit of an unknown quantity, I do feel he may be better than his bare form suggests and his good win on this track last time does give him a chance at rewarding odds.

Tehran – Mb Stables / Santana R Jr

Current Form:

• 2nd at CD on 25 Apr at 1⅛ miles with 95 figure.
• 2026 record: 4 starts, 0 wins, 1 second, 1 third, best figure 100.

Works:

• 23 May AQU 6f 1:10 (1/90).
• 20 Jun AQU 1m 1:35.4 (2/89).

Trainer/Jockey:

• Mb Stables 2026: 1398 starts, 370 wins (.26).
• Santana 2026: 204 starts, 40 wins (.20).

Summary

One win in two years suggest this one may have seen his best days, but he is still competitive at this level, and his works suggest he is as good as ever. The wide draw may see him make a bid for the front and without any real challenge for the lead on paper he could well sneak some easy sectionals and grind out a win.

SUMMARY

A tough race to call as the field is pretty much a field that all could win on their day. Tehran will have its supporters even though his recent form may see him struggle but I do see a race scenario where he gets a soft lead and that could be enough. The three inside horses may find a position just behind that speed and it will all be on down the stretch with the closers unlikely to get the required pace to get them to the front in time. For me it is possible a fight between Classic Look and Never Hold Back but trust me when I say if any of these win, it won’t be a surprise.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES