LA Derby – Grade II (P6) [KYD]
FG   Race #18   1 1/8m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000  For Three Year Olds.

1 Creepy Weekend, trained by D J C Racing Stables
This is not a bad sort and he has raced well enough against a good grade to make a case for him. Fourth in the SAR Special last year he won the Pulpit on his last start as a two year old on the turf. Whilst the surface didnt tell us much it did tell us that he can stay a trip. On his first start as a three year old he had his chances ruined by the outside speed push but did much better in his last start when again faced with a  wide draw. Sitting just behind the leaders he picked up gamely to win the Battaglia Memorial by a half length. His work times dont give him too much of a chance but a better draw and proven ability over a route trip give him a punchers chance.

2 The Right Stuff, trained by Mb Stables
After only racing twice and winning a maiden as a two year old he came right out as a three year old to show his true class when winning the Swale Stakes. Stepped up in trip in The Gotham he ran on well to be a close third last time out. With only 4 starts he is still unexposed but has shown a load of ability and is working well enough to be given a top chance in this race. I worry a little about his racing frequency as most of his runs will have come in under 8 weeks but he represents a strong chance for the champion trainer.

3 Special Guy, trained by Axeman
Bought for just $47.000 at auction he is thrown in the deep end here. On his exposed form you would have to say it was a bit of a hail mary but when you look at his 1.36 and 2 work out 4 days after his sale you have to wonder whether he will be the dark horse in the race.

4 Lost And Found, trained by Red Square Stables
The winner of the With Anticipation on the turf last year he flew late to be fifth in the BC Juvenile Turf as well making you think his favoured surface would be the grass. He reappeared in the Lewis stakes however and whilst he trailed from a wide draw he made up enough ground at the end to suggest he didnt hate dirt. His works are pretty good without being outstanding and he will certainly stay every yard of this trip, an interesting entry with a  decent chance.

5 Withdrawn, trained by John Henry
Has only won one from ten but does have some very good efforts to his name and a 1.36 1/5 work and that adds up to a good stack in an open race. A hard closing third in the LA Futurity last year he ran a decent third in the Smart Jones on reappearance before running on late again in the Gotham last time out. He is difficult to weigh up with a fairly erratic racing style but the trainer has hit his straps recently and he must be given a good chance.

6 Profound Approach, trained by Blushing Meadows
Bought for $375.000 after a good third in the Remsen last year he had looked a promising sort before being put away for a couple of months. His first run as a three year old saw a hard closing head second in the CAC Derby but a wide draw was too tough in The Fountain Of Youth last time where he ran on OK to be sixth. His wily trainer can produce them for these sorts of races and he has done enough to suggest he will be a big part of this race.

7 Mucho Cruncher, trained by Aer Stables
A 1.36 and 1 worker he hasnt exactly lived up to that on the track yet. After taking out the Mucho Macho Man on seasonal debut he then ran on nicely to be second in The Davis Stakes before another good effort to be fifth in the San Felipe. He is working like a winner but has had his chances from OK draws in his last two and has yet to show he has the spirit to win this type of open race.

8 Atletico, trained by Our Athletes
Another that is working well but has yet to deliver on the track. Poor in the Smarty Jones he was then well beaten in an allowance last time out so one suspects this will be his last chance before taking his place in the lower grades.

9 Jolly Be Native, trained by Kopites
The trainer of the moment this horse was as brave as can be in The Rebel last time clinging on for the dead heat after making all the running. That was no shock win either as he had finished a nose third in the BC Juvenile as a two year old and was a close fourth in the Holy Bull prior to that. This will be a real opportunity to see how consistent HRP can be as this is the first winner of a big qualifying race to come back and try to get another. Will he make the running again? Will he trail like he did in the Holy Bull? Whichever is chosen today i expect a huge run from him.

10 Noble Crusader, trained by Mb Stables
Unbeaten from five and the winner of the Lecomt he put his reputation on the line in the Risen Star and very nearly made it six from six. Running on late he was only beaten a nose into second and must represent a big hope for the stable to get another in the KYD.

11 Gods Gold, trained by Riggins Racing
One thing is for sure if this maiden can win today it will be the upset of the year. Riggins Racing has scaled down their operation but has been around the big time long enough to know what can win a race like this.
12 Prince Absolutely, trained by Grimley
Hasnt got close in his two efforts in the Withers and TAM derby and the wide draw may see him sacrificed as a pace maker.

13 Out On A limb, trained by Smokey Stover
Flew late to be a neck second in the Gotham last time he is no forlorn hope even from the coffin draw. A 1.36 and 1 work out and that run in The Gotham make him a live chance in this and we have seen the wide draws win before. Smokey Stover will look to get this one into midpack and if he can save some ground and stay close enough he may bother the big two.

SUMMARY
On form it looks between Noble Crusader and Jolly Be Native but these races tend to throw up the odd left field result so i am going for Out On A Limb to scoot home from the wide gate.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES