SA Derby (Grade 1)- $1,000.000 Purse
SA- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
April 8, 2017
With one month to go before the KYD, we have been treated to seeing some of the best three year olds race recently, including last week and now this weekend. The biggest TC prep races are upon us, and Saturday features three of them. Here, we’ll look at what is going on out west at SA. For the SA Derby, a field of twelve has assembled and unlike the FL Derby, there is not a showdown between two horses to hype up. The field has its favorites, but it seems to be a more balanced field overall. The race was won last year by Dial It In and Mb Stables, however he did not head to the KYD due to the trainer being forced to pick only three entries for the race. He would appear in the PRK a couple weeks later. Mb has three, which we’ll see in the middle of the starting gate, for this one. Let’s meet them, and everyone else, now.
#1- Night Terra (Kopites, ridden by R Bejarano) (10 KYD Points)- Kopites has had a little more time now to see if he can get the DED Jackpot winner steered back in the right direction, and as his former owner, I will be hoping that is the case. Ever since winning the race, and working well a little bit after that race, he has somehow become a non-factor, with a disappointing run in the Holy Bull, and another in the Fountain of Youth. This is a horse that most will disregard, but no one on the rail can ever be counted out. He has the ability within him to get it done.
#2- Darth Andedudu (Diablo Diablo, ridden by N Arroyo Jr) (0 KYD Points)- Ran fifth in the DED Jackpot last November, and may be heading to the turf after the TC chase is over, since two of his last three races have been on the grass. The race that was not was an attempt at the Withers at AQU, and he was a non-factor, finishing sixth. This is the time of year where you take a shot at the KYD if there’s a chance, and that is what the trainer is doing, but I don’t know if Darth Andedudu has been consistent enough to get a piece here. As we know, though, anything and everything is possible now.
#3- Dark Victory (Paradise Stable, ridden by E S Prado) (0 KYD Points)- This is a major jump forward for a horse that has not raced at anything beyond TUP. He did attempt the TUP Derby, and was only fourth in that race. At the beginning of March, he then an N3L allowance at TUP, and would be the runner up there. Dark Victory has talent, and his shorter works are just as good as anyone else in this field. I would have more confidence in him if he were winning those TUP races.
#4- Cuddly Brit (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by E Maldonado) (0 KYD Points)- After a series of turf races, Maxmillion Farm brought Cuddly Brit to the Grade 3 Withers, and he finished in the middle of the field. Following an allowance win, he returned to the prep chase for the Fountain of Youth, but finished towards the back. I see Cuddly Brit as a good horse capable to great things if he can just find a half second more speed at this distance. He’s the type that can be in the right spot if the race runs a slower pace. Deserves some consideration here.
#5- Caught Stealing (Sir Daniel Martin, ridden by J Bravo) (10 KYD Points)- A third place finish in the Spiral a couple weeks ago gave Caught Stealing his 10 KYD Points, but that won’t be nearly enough to get him into the big race. Caught Stealing has been competitive this spring in the prep races, as he was also within a length of victory in the Risen Star back in February. You can understand why he’s here on short rest, and if he doesn’t get in, I still think we should keep a close eye on this one for the rest of the year.
#6- Above The Law (Mb Stables, ridden by R J Albarado) (60 KYD Points)- Thanks in large part to his victory last month in the Grade 2 San Felipe, where he was very impressive coming from well behind to win, Above The Law would comfortably be in the KYD if he were in any other stable. He is third on Mb leaderboard, and 8th overall. The San Felipe was not the only graded stake he’s won here either, as he also took the Sham in January. Unfortunately, the trainer is forced to have to select just three from several that deserve to be in the KYD, and Above The Law seems like he should be one, and that he could only “lose” the berth rather then needing to win it. Appears to be the horse to beat here, though I am looking at another.
#7- Positive Thinking (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez) (20 KYD Points)- Broke his maiden the hard way, doing so in the Grade 3 Lewis Stakes, after two misses trying to break it the conventional way. Amazingly, he improved his race time by nearly two seconds between the last MSW effort, and the Lewis, which only encompassed three weeks. Most recently, he ran against stablemate Above The Law in the San Felipe right here, and ran third. These results have him 21st overall on the leaderboard. If he’s continuing to improve like he did earlier this year, then he seems capable of anything.
#8- General Flecha (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr) (0 KYD Points)- The final entry for Mb Stables in this race is this filly. As the trainer is just as deep, if not deeper, on the KYO side of things, I’m not sure if her entry here is just an attempt to win a race and its purse, or a serious shot to squeeze her into the KYD. It’s been a little less then two weeks since her last race as well, so it’s pretty tough to pick her here. Is she a rabbit for Above The Law? Perhaps.
#9- Slither (Night Mare Racing, ridden by J J Castellano) (14 KYD Points)- Slither got a lot of attention, not from any of his races, but when I announced that I was selling him due to reasons some are aware of. Many different offers, from many different trainers. In the end, the biggest offer came from the trainer that initially bred him, and knows what he is capable of. Outside of Night Mare Racing, I am his biggest fan, and I do feel he can win this race. Not only does he have the talent, but I think this race sets up for him nicely. I would be thrilled to see him in here against this company. He can get the distance, don’t worry about that.
#10- Indiana Jones (John Henry, ridden by Mario Gutierrez) (24 KYD Points)- Currently 18th in KYD Points, Indiana Jones is absolutely at the mercy of what happens this weekend to determine his fate, but he unlike some others, he gets to control his own destiny here. He’s had several great runs lately, but a lack of an outright win in a graded stake has him in this predicament. He comes off a second place finish in both the San Felipe and the Holy Bull, and certainly has earned his spot in the starting gate. It would be a shame if he was not part of the KYD, but I do think he is going to get the job done here. He is my pick.
#11- France (Blushing Meadows, ridden by M E Smith) (0 KYD Points)- This newly gelded runner makes a big jump in his career. He’s only raced three times, and nothing higher then the optional claimer for CA-breds that he ran third in back in the end of February. As we have seen with Positive Thinking, a horse can improve quickly at this age, but that will have to had to have happened for France to have a shot here. The geld may do that, too.
#12- Niner Forty Niner (Serenity Stables, ridden by F Pennington) (11 KYD Points)- The trainer put down a lot of money for this one, showing how alive the KYD dream is. The purchase price was $450.000 for the winner of two out of eight career races. He was a never a factor in the Spiral. I’m just not seeing why he’s worth $200.000 more then Slither, quite honestly, and think that will show on the race track. He works nice, very nice, but hasn’t really translated that. Maybe I will be very wrong!
Prediction: 10-6-9-2
— NS
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
