3/6/21

   10    SA   San Felipe Stakes (GII)  [KYD]

             $300.000     3yo        1 1/16m Dirt           122lbs

Out to SoCal for sunshine and stakes races, the road to Louisville rolls on and we look at the field for Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes (GII), going a mile and a sixteenth on the SA main track.  We get a bit of everything today, a maiden, a filly… everyone looking to get to the KYD.  My top choice has drawn the rail, and Cheesy looks like a horse that is ready to make a TC trail run.  He won over this track last out, and at today’s distance.  The rail post may be welcome after drawing outside in his last three.  Counterintelligence is a horse that made his presence known as he broke maiden against graded stakes horses here in his most recent effort.  That was a tremendous race in the San Vicente and another one like that could move him up the board.  Tormented comes in with two consecutive stakes scores and the big barn always is tough in these races.

It looks like we are set for a good one, good luck to all of the owners.  

Here’s The Field –

Nice break-out win over this surface last out, taking the Lewis Stakes (GIII) after a four race winless streak.  He was second in the Champagne (GI) at BEL last fall, in that group of races.  Add in that he was only beaten a length on BC Day, you have to give him a big look today. 

Two wins in his last three races since the vet stopped by the barn, but the down side is the only bad race in that group was vs. stakes company.  He was also seventh vs. NY-bred stakes types so he will need to show a bit more to be any parts of this one.

Another good 3yo from the Aer Stable and he was a hard closing third in the Lewis Stakes (GIII) over this surface last out.  He also won a stakes at CD so he can certainly compete at this level.  I think he will improve as the distances get longer, as well.

Nice win (DH) in the Swale Stakes (GIII) at GP in his most recent… and he sold again.  That’s three change-of-hands since last April.  He has a nice series of works over this strip getting ready for today, so give him a chance.

I’m not a big fan of maidens in stakes races but it seems to be fashionable this year… to the point that they are winning them.  He just missed winning vs. maidens back in Jan, then was a game third in the San Vincent (GII) last out, so you know he can run with these.

Broke maiden at KEE and has been beaten two lengths in each of his other two latest races.  Closed vs. Alw horses, then tired late in the Lecomte Stakes (GIII) in his most recent.  Obviously, he needs to improve a bit, but this is only his fifth start, so that improvement could be in the cards.

I love this filly, but there is the key word… girls vs. boys, and you know I’m not a fan.  She’s as good as you could want a filly to be, but this could be a tough spot… or, I could be dead wrong and she may run them right into the ground. 

Three wins from eight starts including the Pharoah Stakes (GI) over this track.. Sold prior to this race, so he’s not been in three barns, and he had two fourth place finishes for the last outfit.  Can he get back to his prior winning ways today?

Back-to-back stakes wins and he’s just a head from making that three in a row.  Four wins from his seven starts and he certainly looks ready to go after this type of horses.  I’d give him a serious look today, and he may be a price. 

Was I talking about maidens winning big stakes races?  Well, here ya go… got his first win in the San Vicente (GII) last out, over this track.  He beat some good horses in that race, so you certainly have to think he will be in the thick of this one as well. 

Another making his first start for a new outfit as he sold after his fifth place finish in that San Vicente (GII) race.  He won the Golden Nugget at GG and just missed in the Sham Stakes (GIII) here at SA.  He’s always in the mix. 

Broke maiden and it’s been tough since that.  Draws in off of the AE but his only graded effort was bad and he will need to show a lot more to be in this one. 

Early Scratch – Stress Free, Gilgo Beach

COZMAN   1 / 10 / 9                  Willie’s Green Card        2 / 9 / 5             

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2021-2023