Aer Stables Looks for Second Holy Bull Win in a Row

The Holy Bull Stakes (Grade 3) (KYD)- $200.000 Purse
GP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
January 30, 2021

The field has been drawn for the 17th running of the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, one of the more interesting early season prep races for the KYD. The race offers 10 points for its winner, and we see a sharp looking field looking to pick those up. Last year, the winner in the Holy Bull was Brittle, for Aer Stables and while he did not run well in the KYD and would end up winning the BEL a month later. There has been a purse reduction, again, for this race that once ran for $400.000. First, that was cut to $350.000, then in 2020, it lost $100.000 to go for $250.000, and now here we are at $200.000. At one time this race had a purse of $100.000, so hopefully we are not going to sink to that low again. The bigger prize may be those points, and they are a big reason the gate is full. Let’s look at the field!

#1- Last City (Lemax Farms, ridden by S Russell)- On the rail, this colt will be making the 10th start of his career, making him the most experienced runner in the race. He is not the most experienced winner, however, as he has nothing more than his maiden win. What he also has is close call after close call, running third in the Grade 1 Pharoah and Champagne and was then second in the RP Springboard Mile. What’s going to finally get him over the top and back to the winners circle?

#2- Smokin Luka (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- There are some in the game who feel this is the best three year old we have right now. I have not been won over in that regard, but that is not to say that I don’t feel he is a good one. This would be a great chance to impress me, and he is with the right stable now to do it. After winning the Grade 1 Champagne, he was third in the BC Juvenile. Then, there was the Great White Way. It’s races like that and the Hopeful as to why I am not sold on him being the top three in the game right now.

#3- Plan To Wheel (Fractious, ridden by A Beschizza)- A week after finishing 7th in his lone graded stake attempt, Plan To Wheel was sold by Gdp Inc to Fractious, coming in September. He did not handle a muddy allowance well in his first race in Fractious silks, but he does come off a win in the $75.000 Gold Rush. This is a chance for him to make a statement against some of the better horses in the division. We’ll see what he’s got.

#4- Settle The Score Vr (Estero Farms, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- The trainer has started the year slow, but there is plenty of time to settle the score on that and turn it around. This Viking Rasta gelding was bought for $40.010 in the June auction and ended up breaking his maiden in mid-September. He has been to the track once since, at DED in late November, where he finished in the middle of the field in a $100.000 stake. The hope here figures to be that added distance will lead to a better result.

#5- Awesome Return (Axeman, ridden by L Contreras)- This gelding has done well running against ON-breds, picking up a pair of $250.000 state bred stakes wins in his last four starts. The other two races in that span are in races like this, where the trainer has tried to assert his presence in unrestricted company, but Awesome Return has only provided awful returns in those races. Well, maybe that Pharoah wasn’t that bad, but still he didn’t hit the board. He deserves the chance, but if the returns keep playing out like this, he may be best going back to ON and keeping his success rate going there.

#6- Locamotive (Aer Stables, ridden by S Ryan)- One of the more promising two year olds, with his season capped off by winning the Grade 1 Hopeful at beautiful Saratoga in just his third start. Aer has remained patient with him, and gave him two months off to then run in the BC Juvenile, but could only muster a seventh place finish there. Was back in form at the LA Futurity, his last start, placing second while starting from the second post. S Ryan has been his regular jock, and this one is ready to hit the rails this year!

#7- Di Home Run Hitter (Patterson Stables, ridden by I Oritz Jr)- A winner of one of his six career starts, and he has some graded experience. However, I can’t get over his last start, which was a drop down from the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity, where he was 7th, to an optional claimer at FG. In that, he could only run 5th. That makes me think the trainer lost confidence in him, tried to get it back, didn’t, and is now going to swing for the fences. He might connect, but if I was a pitcher, I’d pitch to him.

#8- Get Set Gone (Serenity Stables, ridden by R M Hernandez)- Scratched out of the Lecomte two weeks ago after being one of my picks in that race. I still like him, and see nothing that has changed about him to make him one of my picks again. He will have two more weeks of rest, which he might not have necessarily needed, but he should be even more ready to roll here. Worked at SA on Tuesday, so will probably be arriving here on race day.

#9- Gilgo Beach (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- This one has just his maiden win in his seven starts up to this point. In November, he ran third in the Grade 2 KY Jockey CLub and that is the effort that must be duplicated here. Ran in the Jerome on New Years Day, and that resulted in a double digit finish. Perhaps that race was too short for him, but he needs to be on his November form.

#10- Doctors Order (Crocker Ggs, ridden by G Franco)- Speaking of the Jerome, that race was certainly not a problem for Doctors Order, as he finished second in a tight photo for the win. That was just his fourth career race, and he has only his maiden win thus far as well. Doctors Order also ran in November, and was poor in allowance, so in multiple ways he is the complete opposite of Gilgo Beach coming into this race. This is a pivotal race for him to see which direction his career heads next.

#11- Born Sassy (Mb Stables, ridden by A Cedillo)- Picked up in private sales for $45.000 last November, one month after a disappointing attempt to break his maiden. At the time, the horse had to subpar starts, so Mb did well here to see the talent and show the confidence he had in the gelding. Just eight days after the purchase, Born Sassy broke his maiden at CD. His lone start since came in the Mucho Macho Man, where he came from well off the pace to be second. Certainly a horse on the upswing, and he is used to the outside post here.

#12- Ptyrannical (Arindel, ridden by E Jaramillo)- This could be another example of a successful private sales purchase, but it did cost Arindel $200.000 to pick him up from Joshua Stables on Christmas Eve. He was still a little unproven himself, even though he had been entered in ungraded stakes, the finishes were not there. Five days after the sale, Arindel got a win with him, though in an allowance. Off that, we’ll see if the Opus Force gelding is ready to try the graded ranks. Works imply that he is.

Prediction: 6-8-2-10

— NS



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES

4 replies

  1. I ran Di Home Run Hitter in that FG allowance because he needed a race. My instructions there were poor, he broke on top, but because of my selection of C/MD, he probably didn’t run as well as he might have. But, honestly, bottom line is I have three-year-olds running out of my ears and wasn’t examining it as closely as you might think. I know he’s fast, in my top 5-10, we’ll see what happens. Haven’t lost confidence at all, but the build does make me wonder how long he will last. I’ve seen no indication that he is near that point yet. In fact, he recently went from 15.3 to 16.0 which is arguably a good thing. I’m still learning to race in a proficient manner, it is harder than it might seem to those that havent really given it an en masse effort. Which is only to say, I recognize I’ve sort of been a restrictor plate on what he’s shown to this point. Hopefully, I can do him justice going forward. Thanks for the write up!

  2. Couldn’t be more thrilled with how my horse ran. I wouldn’t trade places with anyone in that race.

  3. I didn’t realize there was a Pick Em until a few moments ago, much too late to play. But I must admonish all of you for 1.3% of the picks being on my horse. He was #1 after the first set of five furlong works last year. His 1:37 1/5 mile was tops at that time. He was clearly quite good, but this community has got it in for me. That’s fine, won’t slow me down!!!

  4. You got beaten by the champ. Yours ran out of your mind, like your last 2 months in hrp land.
    Take a breath, relax.
    Like mike tyson said……I’m da best eva, nobody can beat me.
    :))