August 24, 2016
$1,500.000 is the purse. A Grade I designation is the goal. Immortality is the reward. Victory in the Travers Stakes does not come easily and you could go through the immense history and find a list of horses who did not win that is as impressive, or even more impressive, than those who have taken down this classic 1 ¼ mile contest. Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox lost to Jim Dandy in 1930, Affirmed lost the 1978 edition to rival Alydar by disqualification and American Pharoah lost last year to Keen Ice after his Triple Crown victory. Many great champions have lost, and few have one, with only Whirlaway winning the Triple Crown and the Travers to complete the Superfecta (although Pharoah upped him by winning the Classic instead).
Grady beat Sleepless Nights in 2005. Dark Crown beat Dani Dauntless in 2006. Moon Account beat Half Spirit in 2008. And in 2010, the curse was broken when Five Fives came through with a Travers win after taking 2/3’s of the TC as well. Although some excellent winners have won in recent years including Hardline and A One the past two years, it is still one of the toughest races to win for those coming off the TC trail and with so many entrants coming off lackluster efforts, big purchases or simply from out of the shadows, roll the dice and pick a number because it is any guess as to how things will play out.
1-Copper Beast (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-John Henry)
A last gasp winner of the AR Derby and a last gasp second in the KYD, Copper Beast was off his game in both the BEL and the Haskell and now, with a new barn, will try to regroup and score a huge win from his rail position. He is a confirmed closer and faces another massive field but scores the inside draw this time around and that could suit him just fine as he looks to save some ground and find enough early pace to chase to his outside, with only a clear lane between him and another charging effort.
Analysis-Should be at his best closing into this pace
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Black Mojo (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Heavens Own)
Black Mojo was purchased for a monstrous $900.000 off a win in the Peter Pan and a closing second in the BEL and after rocketing home for second again in the Haskell, he looks to continue his amazing three-year-old season with another off-the-pace effort. Unfortunately, he will be facing others who have similar closing ability and gets saddled with an inside post; much like the rail starter, he will be looking for a pace to chase and if he gets it, he will be another tiring to negotiate the final quarter-mile while others are struggling to find their stamina.
Analysis-Will be sitting in midpack and hoping to speed up front
Fair Odds-8/1
3-Lord Byron (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
Lord Byron has won a single race in six starts this year and while it might have come in the IA Derby, he has finished off the board against some of these runners in races like the AR Derby and the Dandy over this course and that makes him one of the longshots. Coming from off the pace would be in his best interest but it is also in the interest of others and based on his current form, he does not look to be as good as others and will have to overcome his troubles to best many of these.
Analysis-Has finished off the board more times than not
Fair Odds-25/1
4-Snowmizer (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Snowmizer was another of the biggest purchases in the Travers field but his $1250.000 price has certainly not been reduced and a last place finish in the KYD, a midpack finish in the BEL and only a sixth against easier in the Queens Plate add a huge price to his profile against open rivals here. He was excellent in a series of races at AQU earlier in the year, and maybe the outside posts have not been to his liking, but you have to think that his form has tailed off and he will have to regroup to hit the top half of the field.
Analysis-Not the same colt since being purchased
Fair Odds-30/1
5-Bo Jangles (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)
Purchased for only $35.000 last October, Bo Jangles has won four of his six starts for owner Australia Wide and and after running down the speed in the Real Good Deal at DMR, he stretches out by three-furlongs with dead aim on another huge jump in class and a fourth straight score. His speed ratings are excellent and reached a peak last time out and although he has shown speed in the past, coming from just off the lead will be best and his style will see him closer to the pace than others, which is always a good place to be.
Analysis-Improving form makes him dangerous at this level
Fair Odds-5/1
6-Blue Eight (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Grimley)
Blue Eight won a N3L allowance in such impressive fashion that he was put up into the Grade II Dandy last time out but could only manage to close into sixth and off that bounce, will add his name to a list of Travers entrants who are trying to regain their lost form. His speed ratings have never been as high as others in the field and he changes hands for this start after a successful run and even with great workouts, he still looks like the type that might find this class out of reach.
Analysis-Was a longshot last time and now faces a tougher field
Fair Odds-15/1
7-Atomic Twister (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Atomic Twister was made the favourite in the Haskell but was way too far back as usual and could only manage to close for fourth; the added distance might help but he faces a slew of others who will also be closing from off the pace and that makes his position all the more tenuous. He found his best footing back in the Wood Memorial but the pace of that race was incredibly quick and those slow fractions at MTH did not play into his hand so the hope is that someone will go out and set the pace, setting him up for another good run down the lane.
Analysis-Good so far but really up against it pace-wise
Fair Odds-10/1
8-Moment Of Madness (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Moment Of Madness had every chance to run down the speed in the Dandy but made a move too late and came up a neck short; completely different from his runs in both the KYD and the PRK where he had the lead late and gave it up to finish just in back of the winners. Timing his move into the tough SAR stretch will be the key and returning jockey J R Velazquez might be the key, as he looks to make it perfectly for an owner who, surprisingly, still has not won this event.
Analysis-Looks to make the perfect move to victory
Fair Odds-6/1
9-Edwin Drood (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Edwin Drood earned his spot in the KYD with a win in the Fountain Of Youth and a second in the BG Stakes but he was put on the shelf for months and has now emerged back, better than ever, with two amazing wins in the IND Derby and WV Derby. While those fields might not have been the caliber of this group, his 101-speed ratings speak to the talent this gelding possesses and more importantly, a middle post that will be perfect if he wants to stay clear of trouble.
Analysis-Best form coming will help him go a long way
Fair Odds-4/1
10-Blue Guy (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Grimley)
TAM Derby winner has not hit the board in four subsequent starts and off a seventh in the BEL Derby on turf at more than 238-1, looks to set the pace like he did in the KYD, with the hopes of a much better result. He had the lead to the head of the lane at BEL but could not hold off the closers and while his middle moves have been solid, stamina might be a question and he will once again be a vast longshot.
Analysis-Longshot until he finally hits the board
Fair Odds-40/1
11-The Perfect Day (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Pan Farms)
The biggest purchase in the Travers field is The Perfect Day, taken for $1350.000 off his win in the Grade II San Felipe, and while he was second in the SA Derby and the IA Derby, he has yet to win since March and will be in tough once again, even if he does replicate his third from the Dandy over this same course. Speed ratings are steady but he gets a new jockey and as one of the many charging from off the pace, he has to find the room and outfinish others if he wants to take a share of the top four.
Analysis-Has not won for a while and might not be good enough here
Fair Odds-15/1
12-What A Guarantee (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-John Henry)
What A Guarantee earned the majority of his money with a win in the SUN Derby and a third in the KYD but three straight off-the-board finishes relegate him to longshot status and one of the outside posts will not help him when he is last early. M E Smith returns to the saddle in his third start for the new barn and even though he moves back to face sophomores after testing the best in the Grade I Whitney, this is still an incredible field and one that will not make it easy for him down the stretch.
Analysis-Faces three-year-olds but the very best of them
Fair Odds-12/1
13-Speeding Steel (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Speeding Steel is basically a rabbit for Moment Of Madness and Spring Lover and will ensure a solid pace, while making it tough for horses like Blue Guy and Bo Jangles to get a clear lead. He is not fast enough to win this and not talented enough to hold his own so look for him to break well and then fold in the lane when others charge home.
Analysis-The rabbit
Fair Odds-100/1
14-Spring Lover (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Spring Lover has gotten the worst post position draws all season long yet has still been able to close well enough to finish second in the San Felipe, win the BG Stakes and actually take the lead in the IND Derby before just missing to a charging Edwin Drood. That kind of effort should get him into a contending position and if he can finally get a good post, he might be able to win one of these top class events at some stage.
Analysis-Excellent form all season and will try to overcome another wide draw
Fair Odds-5/1
Overall
It is tough to imagine that a race like the IND Derby could provide the top two choices in a race as prestigious at the Grade I Travers but the winners of the KYD, PRK, BEL, Haskell and Dandy are not here and that leaves Edwin Drood and Spring Lover as the best selections, with the former coming in off two huge victories and the latter trying to overcome another outside draw. Bo Jangles is really the wildcard in this loaded field and if he can continue to improve, he could be the best one to handle the distance and score another huge victory.
Prediction
Win-Edwin Drood (4/1)
Place-Spring Lover (5/1)
Show-Bo Jangles (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
