Alysheba – Grade II
CD Race #5 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $750.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.

1 Lunar Victory Fractious Prat F 122 —

I had always thought a lot of this horse and he hasn’t really delivered the sort of consistency at this level I had hoped for. It looked like he had come back to his best three-year-old form in his first two races this year, finishing second twice at grade two and it was looking only a matter of time before he was back in the winner’s circle. However last time in the OP Mile he really ran poorly ending up tenth. He is a classic example of why playing HRP is so hard at the moment, working sub 1.10 dirt 3/4-mile times he should be one of our top horses, but he just doesn’t deliver on the track. Whilst you cannot write off the chances that he will suddenly run to his works I have been burned too many times now to tip him out.

2 Gigabyte Smokey Stover Lopez P 122 —

The winner of the 2022 KYD he has struggled as good three-year-olds can to capture that sort of form as he has matured. We see it so often it cannot be a coincidence though that after a below par four-year-old season they can come back at five and start back up the improvement curve and looking at his two runs this year that may be happening with him. A sizzling mile work last time says the magic dust may well have been sprinkled and with the perfect draw I would be putting this one high on my list of potential winners.

3 Demon Wood Duck Stables Velazquez J R 122 —

He looked a bit of a routing find when switching from sprints and looked really strong when winning the LA Stakes. Two fair runs since have done little to dent his reputation and he does at last get a decent draw to work with today. This would be my dark horse for this race because there is no doubting his class or ability and as I said it has been a long time since he has had a draw like this.

4 Speightstown Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 122 —

He has always been a good horse but was taken as low at TAM to get a win streak going at the end of last year. He ran a decent fourth in the KY Cup Classic on seasonal reappearance and would’ve needed that run after a few months off. He threw a 1.36 flat work time for the dirt mile so it is clear he is as good as ever and whilst these are all very good horses, he would easily be in anyone’s top six.

5 Kylo Ren Luz International Luzzi L J 122 —

He won the Essex Handicap last time rather cozily, but this is a big step up from handicap grade. He has shown enough to be considered for this especially after he switched from being a long-time turf horse to win that race last time so we don’t know exactly how good he will be on this surface. It rarely works that they switch and get two big wins in a row so I will pass him over today but don’t let that put you off if you like him because a win would not surprise.

6 Bonus Baby Night Rider Stables Carmouche K 122 —

He has run two fair races this year but hasn’t lived up to the promise of his works so this would be a huge step up on form if he can get top three here. Likely to try and stalk; this isn’t an easy gate to do that from and whilst he wouldn’t be my first choice there is always a chance at HRP.

7 Individuation Mb Stables Moore R L 122 —

The winner of over $8,000.000 this ex-BC Champ needs no introduction. He looked as good as ever when winning the GP Mile but was a shade disappointing in the OP Mile last time out when running fifth as favorite. I have no doubt the trainer’s supporters will make him favorite for this and he deserves that position, but I do worry that two of his three races this year have been a shade underwhelming. His works say that he is still the horse he has always been so good luck to this great horse in his quests for the magic $10,000.000 in winnings mark.

8 Twin Rackets Alydar Stables Husbands P 122 —

Last year’s PA Derby winner flew home to be fourth with crazy fast finishing splits in the BC Dirt Mile but still remains winless since then. All of his efforts, bar one, have been pretty good since the BC, and he did beat home a good few of these in the Pegasus, so it is clear he is right in this race. His recent sub 1.36-mile work was as sharp as a tack, so I wonder if the trainer has found an instruction that works for him. That would be his biggest issue here, especially on this engine because he is a natural deep closer and that is a difficult position to be in. He will need a fast early pace, a clear run and to be close enough into the stretch to make it work. That’s a lot of ifs but if things go right, he is certainly capable.

9 Quiet Return Allinthegate Gaffalione T 122 —

Last year’s KYD winner hasn’t won a race since then but that is a bit misleading because he was only beaten a nose in the BC Classic and has placed in five grade ones since then. He too has a sub 1.36 work coming off the back of two defeats this year, but he was third in the Pegasus and second in The National Museum Of Racing giving him the edge on most of these on recent form. It would be great to see him win exactly one year since his great KYD victory and there is no reason why he can’t if things go his way.

10 Xavier Breath Maxmillion Farm Cedillo A 122 —

Here we see how hard it is to work out form because this horse won the OP Mile last time beating a good few of these and he won it with ease coming off a 1.10 and 3 six-furlong work, a work that would struggle to win a claimer. He is a long way off the best worker here, in fact on recent works you would struggle to even put him in this race but his form in his two wins this year has been some of the best in this race. So purely on form and if he can overcome this sticky draw you would have to like his chances of going three from three in ’24.

11 Cioppino TwinTowersRacing Beschizza A 122 —

This one has a lot to find if he is going to have any chance against this stellar field especially from this rotten draw. I can find no reason he can win other than his trainer seems to be able to make gold from dirt so whilst I have to pass him over, he could just end up the 1000/1 winner.

12 South China Sea Fractious Franco M 122 —

This lightly raced six-year-old may be a bit under rated here and may come up a good bet albeit from a difficult draw. He finished really well to be third in the OP Mile last time after a difficult trip and was a four-time winner before that. The trainer seems to have 50 runners a day at all levels these days so had more than three to choose from for this race and I think this one’s inclusion could be significant.

13 Domiano Fractious Geroux F 122 —

Working as fast as the best so despite form that doesn’t look as good who knows what he will produce from the car park today. His two most recent wins have come from the front so I suspect he will use the wide gate speed push to take that position today and if he gets away with decent enough splits he could still be there at the end.

SUMMARY

Wow, what a race. A BC champ, two KYD winners and a field that wouldn’t look out of place in November. It is very hard to settle on a winner here as they all deserve their place, and all have a story to tell of how they won. Maybe a race to watch and savor, but if I was forced to go with a couple then I think Individuation is one obvious choice whilst maybe Gigabyte has had enough five-year-old fairy dust to run big today.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES