April 30, 2015

Fillies and mares have a new stakes races in NY to help them on the road to the BC Turf Sprint and the License Fee, with a purse of $100.000, has attracted a field of five as a prep for the more lucrative Intercontinental later on in the meeting. Every horse in the field ships in off a last start at SA, including four over the downhill turf course, so getting the six-furlongs on turf will not be an issue as much as who will be able to set what should be a very quick pace.

1-Julies Lemon Haze (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

A single win since being claimed more than a year ago, coupled with a tiring third against easier company in her last, make Julies Lemon Haze one of the longer shots in the License Fee field and unless she can keep her momentum going through the entire six-furlongs, she will most likely be staggering to the line. An increase in weight will not help her chances and on paper, she does not look fast enough to compete with the best and even with an inside draw, will be looking for a top three placing only before moving into easier levels.

Analysis-Not up to the level of others

Fair Odds-10/1

2-Ironbound Scoundrel (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Robeth)

Ironbound Scoundrel has never won on the grass and was only a dismal fourth going one-mile on the turf last time out at SA so the chances of her stepping up into stakes company, going shorter, against battle tested fillies, is quite remote. Her speed ratings on the dirt are solid and she is good at the six-panels but the lack of turf experience is tough to overlook and she will be a longshot to hit the board against this bunch.

Analysis-Turf knowledge is lacking

Fair Odds-15/1

3-Dont Stop (Six-year-old bay mare / Owner-Spankys Barn)

Proven over both the dirt and the turf in open and state-bred company, Dont Stop is the type of workhorse that every barn longs to have and on Saturday, she will try to add to her credentials with a big win against reachable foes, and one that should put her over the $500.000 in lifetime earnings. Since being taken for only $25.000, she has earned a third place finish and two straight wins over the downhill course at SA and while that might be a preference, a win last year over the SAR turf in tough allowance company proves that she can travel well and still perform at a top level.

Analysis-High percentage mare should find this within her grasp
Fair Odds-3/1

4-Flying Corvette (Six-year-old bay mare / Owner-Maverick Racing)

A triple stakes winner against CA-breds and second in the Grade I First Lady two seasons ago, Flying Corvette is a very good mare who showed absolutely nothing last time out in the Las Ciengas and now, will try to regroup against a field that should be easier to tackle. On her best day, she is good enough to win this race but her last was not very good and questions linger as to how well she will bounce back, especially moving to NY for the first time.

Analysis-Last race was not her best and that raises questions

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Aurora Sails (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-La Canada Racehorses)

While her inside foe showed nothing in the Las Ciengas, Aurora Sails was clearly the best that day at SA and riding a four-race winning streak, ships back to NY in hopes of establishing herself as the best F&M turf sprinter at HRP. Her speed ratings are some of the best in the field, she gets an outside post with which to stalk the early leaders and if she can get going around the far turn, she should be long gone in the final furlong en route to another top class victory.

Analysis-Multiple stakes winner looks like the real deal

Fair Odds-2/1

Overall

Only two of the five entrants in the License Fee at BEL come into the race off victories and while Dont Stop, off two straight wins in powerful fashion at SA, looks like the part of a mare on the improve, Aurora Sails is a top class turf sprinter coming in off three straight stakes wins and that should be four in a row at the end of six very quick furlongs. Flying Corvette is a multiple stakes winner in her own right but did nothing to improve that standing last time out and that makes her a mare who is most likely running for a small award but whom can also come up with a big effort is the scenario presently itself.

Prediction

Win-Aurora Sails (2/1)

Place-Dont Stop (3/1)

Show-Flying Corvette (6/1)

Triple T Racing

Categories: Ungraded