October 5, 2016
One of the seminal preps for the BC F&M Turf is the Grade I Flower Bowl at BEL, routinely run on the undercard to the JC Gold Cup at the classic distance of 1 ¼ miles and Saturday afternoon, it will be run once again over the inner turf for a $500.000 purse, attracting a field of seven older runners and four sophomores. Won by champions like Waya and Just A Game in its early years, 1999 winner Soaring Softly became the first to back up her score in the F&M Turf, followed by Lahudood in 2007 and Stephanie’s Kitten last year after her second win in the race.
HRP has seen a number of Flower Bowl winners score in the BC including inaugural winner Lindsey, 2006 winner Catachresis, duel winner Donna Jean and eight-time Grade I winner A Little Oblivion. Mentioned Honorably took victory last year but finished up the track going shorter at KEE and coming back off a less-than-stellar season by her standard, faced a bigger field that really lacks a standout since many are coming in off losses, starts on the main track or against lesser competition.
1-Cap And Bells (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Cap And Bells had a huge three-year-old campaign with four wins including a longshot score in the Mrs Revere but was put on the shelf for much of 2016 and now makes her second start back for new connections against some of the best in her division. She has always had decent speed ratings and raced similarly in the Ballston Handicap but ran into a huge field there and will be up against it once again, with the hopes for an improved effort that sets her up for a better run next time out.
Analysis-Should be better second time off the layoff but not good enough
Fair Odds-20/1
2-Tropics (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Australia Wide)
Tropics nearly pulled off an upset in the Flower at BEL last year (not to be confused with the Flower Bowl) and if you toss out that lackluster run against males in the Wood Memorial, this is a very good filly going out for an owner with huge success going dirt to turf. The filly who beat her in the Alabama is a three-time Grade I and it turned out to be her best effort to date; lightly raced and with huge workouts on the turf, she has all the tools to handle the return to the grass and should also be a good price.
Analysis-Gets back to the grass and should continue to improve
Fair Odds-5/1
3-Mentioned Honorably (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Mb Stables)
Defending Flower Bowl champion Mentioned Honorably has actually had a decent season with two wins and three seconds in seven starts but she probably should have won the Ballston Handicap after taking the lead into the stretch and now, facing another long race, will have to carry her speed even farther if she wants to go back-to-back in this event. Yielding and soft turf has been better for her than a firm course and she will move forward if the ground gets rain but right now, she ranks a little bit lower than others and will need a very good run to hit the top four against this bunch.
Analysis-Winner last year but might not be the same mare
Fair Odds-10/1
4-Vertigineux (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Since moving into Graded Stakes company for an extended spell, Vertigineux has not been the same filly and even though she was second in the NY over this course and distance back in June, her last efforts have not been up to par and she will have to be at her best to hit the board. She set the pace in the Personal Ensign on the dirt last time but faded to finish sixth and the move back to the turf, at a good distance for her, might just move her up to a contending position.
Analysis-Back to the turf and back to a better position
Fair Odds-15/1
5-Fooled Ya (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mm Racing)
Switched to the turf for the Solana Beach at DMR, Fooled Ya came away with a huge win going one-mile and after cutting back to six-furlongs, she moves out to ten-furlongs instead and might be able to take the field around the turn with the ability to go all the way. She has shown the speed in workouts so we know that she will be out front and with a familiar jockey on here, there is a little bit of danger for those who leave her alone up front.
Analysis-Decent wire-to-wire threat from this post
Fair Odds-6/1
6-Mucho Too Bad (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)
Mucho Too Bad was second over a yielding turf in the Waya and now comes back off a two-month freshening against the toughest field she has ever faced, making her a longshot to hit the board unless she really steps up her game. Her speed ratings have never reached better than a 94-mark and that is well below the best in this field and even with the ideal set-up, she is another who does not appear to have enough to go with the big girls late.
Analysis-Never faced this level and does not look like she will handle it
Fair Odds-25/1
7-Aaract (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Crocker Ggs)
Aaract was claimed for only $18.000 off a win at MTH back in July and as a stakes winner at DMR in the CTT Handicap, she might be good enough to win this race at a distance that will be well suited to her abilities. The only problem is going to be class since she failed to close any major ground when sixth in the Canadian at WO and if she breaks slowly and finds herself behind a slow pace, she might lack any kind of closing kick and could be simply outrun.
Analysis-Lacks any experience against this level and could be vulnerable
Fair Odds-10/1
8-Last Voyager (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Canny Lodge)
This time last year, Last Voyager was a nine-length winner for a minor $10.500 price tag and as one of the many who have stepped up into tougher categories, she will be trying to regain some of her form from earlier in the year after a dismal Summer against Grade I company. She capitalized on controlled fractions when finishing second in the Glen Falls Handicap at SAR last time but the speed figure was a minor regression and she will have to be faster to hit the top four here.
Analysis-Already running above her level and could be closing late
Fair Odds-15/1
9-Altered Skeleton (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-John Henry)
For a filly who has only won once in six starts this campaign, Altered Skeleton certainly has changed owners a fair number of times and now races for new connections who are hoping to take her back to the BC, where she can build on her runner-up finish after holding the lead for much of the race. She prepped last year in the Rodeo Drive but has actually been racing on the East Coast this Summer and with a big win in the NY to back up her talent, there is plenty to suggest that she can rebound after that tough effort in the Beverly D.
Analysis-Certainly has the talent but the many changes in ownership could hinder
Fair Odds-4/1
10-Iron Punch (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Joseph Racing)
It took a while for Iron Punch to find her way to the winner’s circle for the first time but she has won in the spades since then and finally came through with her first big win of 2016 in the Mabee Stakes at DMR last time out. Rather than stay at SA for the Rodeo Drive, she ships here to BEL before possibly shipping back to SA for the BC F&M Turf and all that travel has forced her hand in three big workouts, which might leave her short when it comes to getting ten-furlongs for the first time in her career.
Analysis-Stretches out and might be lacking that punch in the lane
Fair Odds-10/1
11-In Z Balance (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Diablo Diablo)
Only two of the entrants in the Flower Bowl have actually qualified for the BC F&M Turf and In Z Balance is one of them, although a top placing here would go a long way to securing her spot, plus giving here some much needed confidence. Third in the Wiley at KEE and the Yellow Ribbon at DMR, she came from well off the early pace to upset the Ballston Handicap with a huge 102-speed rating and now gets saddled with the outside gate, which will inflate her odds but give her a chance to settle into the back nicely and make one final push for the win.
Analysis-Big win last time sets her up nicely here
Fair Odds-9/2
Overall
Almost all of the fillies and mares running in the Grade I Flower Bowl on Saturday at BEL need to win to ensure their spot in the starting gate for the BC F&M Turf and that will make the action fast and furious, with Altered Skeleton hoping to run back to her score over this course in the Grade II NY as proof of her talent. In Z Balance won big at SAR last time and will coming from well off the pace while Tropics has been excellent against three-year-old fillies on the dirt but switches back to the turf and could be dangerous from a solid inside post.
Prediction
Win-Altered Skeleton (4/1)
Place-In Z Balance (9/2)
Show-Tropics (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
