BC Juvenile – Grade I [KYD]

KEE Race #9 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Colts And Geldings Two Years Old.

First raced in 2003 this race has produced the likes of Timepiece, Copper Bottom and Ginger Haggis to name but a few and is widely regarded as the start of the road to next years TC. There will be many of today’s runners that go on to compete in the KYD so its always worth taking note of those that run well but don’t necessarily win. Surprisingly we don’t see many of the big hitters of the game on the previous winners list, No Mb, no T7, Ken Allen or Blushing Meadows. No Smokey Stover, John Henry, Estero Farms or DJC Racing Stables, many of what are considered the games best breeders haven’t managed to win this race yet which is an interesting fact in its own right. Only Triple K stables has won this race more than once.

This will be the second time the race has been run at KEE with the winner that year being Carneyman from Broken Spoke Stables.

So its onto the runners to try and sort out what is always a tough read for the form studier. Many of these have raced against each other, some have done better than others but when you get a big field of juveniles that are all working within a few ticks of each other it is always a little down to luck as to whether you get the trip and gaps.

1 – Crack Danz

Owned by Gdp Inc, bred by Gdp Inc

By Safecracker out of Magnely Danzing (Charlemagne)

Form: 31101

Took his maiden in good style at the second attempt and then followed up with an impressive win in the Victoria Stakes. Things went wrong when he was tried on the turf in his next start but he came back with an almighty bang in his last start, back to the dirt and first time over a trip, when he took the grade one Pharaoh. Take out that turf run and his record would look very impressive.
This ace draw can be tricky in a big field but he won the Pharaoh from the one box, stalking the leaders and saving ground and there seems no reason he couldn’t do the same today.

2 – Creepy Havoc

Owned by Estero Farms, bred by Estero Farms

By Wreaking Havoc out of Creepy Laff (Mr Creepy)

Form: 3012

Having never been beyond seven furlongs you could question this ones stamina but the way he has been finishing off his races suggests that he will see out this trip with no problems. He won his maiden after being gelded and that seems to have improved him about ten lengths because after he won his maiden a month after the Op he then ran a terrific second in the DMR Futurity going down by just a neck. He gets the draw everyone wants which puts him right in this.

3 – Sports Page

Owned by Aer Stables, bred by Greeko Holdem

By Charley Farley out of Miss Page (Haunted Steel)

Form: 3132

Gelded after a first start he broke his maiden impressively at ELP making all over a mile. Using the same tactics he led the DMR Futurity for a long way before eventually ending up third so it was decided to change those tactics as he stepped up to further in the Breeders Futurity. The clicks did the job and he came from just off the pace to dead heat for second. His form lines are very consistent so there is no reason he wont be in at the finish again today and i just love the fact that he is a direct foal from the great influence sire Charley Farley who is still turning out stakes runners at 13 years of age.

4 – Last City

Owned by Lemax Farms, bred by lemax Farms

By Britslastbutnotleast out of Ljubijana (Doctor Nemesis)

Form: 4212233

Fortunately he didn’t get his name from any combination of his sire or dam’s name but this runner is a great reward for the trainers small breeding operation. A real trier and highly consistent he has run well from wide draws, inside draws, sprints or routes and he just keeps stepping up and i like that about him. Second from a wide draw in the Victoria Stakes, he was wide again in the grade one Pharaoh and did equally well to end up third. He got a much better draw in the Champagne and ran a cracker to be beaten just a half length in third and has very little to find to be right up with those who beat him today. This is a great draw that will give him every chance of a top three finish.

5 – Locamotive

Owned by Aer Stables, bred by Two Hearts One Love

By Manhunt out of Yosemite (Chief Charley)

Form: 121

With just the three starts this one is probably the most unexposed of the runners especially when you consider two of his three starts have been in graded company. A winner on debut he went on to run well in the Best Pal but really stamped himself a possible BC winner in the grade one Hopeful last time out when coming home from a difficult draw by just under a length at big odds. This trainer has had some great juveniles in the last two years and this one looks to repeat the owners win in the race last year. There is a lot to like about him.

6 – Pocantico

Owned by Smokey Stover, bred by Smokey Stover

By Decima out of Happy Clapper (Quench)

Form: 1001210

His form line reads a little inconsistent but i feel that is more down to the extreme nature of his draws than an actual problem with his attitude. A winner on debut he took a while to win again and didn’t really come to himself until his draws went from wide to inner. When that happened he managed a win and a second before a game win in the grade one DMR Futurity. Back to a wide draw in his last start, The Champagne, he traveled wide by not far off them and kept on really strongly to dead heat for fifth a half length off the winner. HRP form is very hard to read when most of these top races only have a few lengths between first and last so it is hard to assess how the horse ran in adversity as much as where they finished. His last four starts have been top notch and he has to go in the hat with a big chance.

7 – Grande Geek

Owned by Mb Stables, bred by Spinetingling

By Pollo Grande out of Ascot Geek (Knowledge Geek)

Form : 21102

Mb Stables bought this one after a FON Maiden second for $175 so it was pretty clear there was something special about him. Gelded straight away he quickly paid back the confidence with a big maiden win at CD and then a fine win in the Sanford. Given a while he came back in the grade one Hopeful but a wide draw saw him take option B from the race engine and go way back before mounting a late run. He left it all too late but was only two lengths back in seventh and was much better from a better draw last time in the grade one Breeders Futurity where he again came late to be second.
He wouldn’t have to find much to turn those defeats around and gets a fair enough draw to do it.

8 – Brave Companion

Owned by Nakamura Stables, bred by Nakamura Stables

By Brave Decision out of El Gran Flora (El Gran Broomstick)

Form: 21011

Broke his maiden in his second start in a big ticket CD Maiden which set him up nicely to get into some of the big races which is of course essential to get qualified for this race. His first effort in the SAR Special was from a wide draw and though he made up some ground to be beaten just two lengths he was never in the race and recorded a ninth place finish. Back to a better draw he bounced back to win the AP Washington Futurity and then looking a much more furnished horse took on the wide draw and beat it convincingly in the Breeders Futurity coming home just under a length clear over this trip. That win was probably the best piece of form in this race considering his draw and although his works are good they aren’t as strong as some of these but i wouldn’t let that put you off. The draw gives him some options.

9 – Smokin Luka

Owned by Mb Stables, Bred by Night Rider Stables

By Copper Bottom out of Knockdown (Commanding)

Form: 113201

Started like you have to to get into these big juvenile races with a strong debut maiden win and then another powerful run and win in the KY Juvenile. He was gradually upped in trip running second in the SAR Special from a terrible draw and then running a shade disappointingly in The Hopeful before bouncing back up to the mile to win the grade one Champagne. It was after that poor run in the Hopeful that the breeder sold him for $475 and it was in the hands of Mb Stables that he won that grade one. Could the new owner drive another nail into Night Riders side by taking this premier juvenile crown? Well the champion has dug deep into their pockets to try and win this illusive title so they must have plenty of confidence. The draw isn’t the best but if anyone can use it then its Mb Stables.

10 – Cheesy

Owned by Keikowin Racing bred by Keikowin Racing

By Exultant out of Amazing Andrea (Inspector Jacques)

Form: 01102

Went to the turf initially winning the Soaring Free Stakes and then running a cracker from a rotten draw in the Summer Stakes, flying home for fifth beaten just a half length. I have a feeling those efforts would make him a huge chance in the Juvenile Turf but the trainer went to the dirt in his last start and a determined effort saw him only beaten a quarter length in second behind Smokin Lika with Last City, Jinxed Authority and Pocantico behind. There is so very little between these two year old this year, it seems closer than it has ever been, so you have to give this one a great chance.

11 – Afterburner

Owned by Fractious, bred by Fractious

By Pinnacle West out of Creepy Nightmare (Mr Creepy)

Form: 01012

Another that took his maiden on his second start he ran in that SAR Special and finished two lengths off the winner in what can only be called such a close finish i don’t think the form is really worth very much. Stepped up to the mile he then took the Iroquois in good style before a good effort in the Pharaoh where he finished second to Crack Danz after running the stalk for much of the race. There is no doubt he is good and could easily win this but i do worry that he has had a lot of nice draws and really hasn’t had to face much adversity on that score which may make his form a little better than it looks.

12 – Burnin Red Hooves

Owned by TwinTowersRacing, bred by TwinTowersRacing

By Caught Red Hoofed out of Burnin Love (Bench Warrant)

Form: 01100

Started off very strongly taking a big ticket maiden and then capturing the Bashford Manor. He was a little exposed in the SAR Special but everything finished in a heap in that race so i am not too bothered by his 11th place finish. He was better last time out in the Pharaoh staying on nicely for seventh but with a bit to find on his rivals this draw may make it a bit too tough.

13 – Jinxed Authority

Owned by Smokey Stover, bred by Smokey Stover

By Good Authority out of Jinxed Queen (Z Jinxed One)

Form: 01124

Won the required big ticket maiden to get into the early stakes races and he immediately got into the BC groove with a win in the SAR Special. That race was a real blanket finish so it is hard to weigh up but he then went to the Hopeful where he ran a game race after going on the speed to finish second to Locamotive. That effort put him in as favorite to win the grade one Champagne last time out but for some reason he went too far back off just an average early pace and flew home too late for fourth just a half length off Smokin Luka. He will have his supporters again today but they will be hoping he can get a better position in this race which is notorious for traffic problems and the wide draw will make it tough. If there is a fast pace however i can see him running wide into the stretch and coming on strongly at the end.

14 – TKO

Owned by Fractious and bred by Fractious

By Residue out of Hunt (Moment Of Madness)

Form: 01040

Given any other draw and you would be seriously looking at this one but the car park is a tough place to be in a ten horse race let alone a fourteen strong field. However, like Jinxed Authority, the form is there and if there is a fast pace the wide draw can be a good place to launch a late run from. A good fifth from a wide draw in the Bashford Manor he then ran a huge race to win the Best Pal despite a nasty draw. In his next two he was only beaten a length in the Hopeful and the Champagne and that puts him very close to the favorites for this race. This will be his fifth poor draw in a row and you can understand if he is beginning to hold a grudge but with all that practice he may just be well qualified to win from gate 14.

AE Glorious And Free

Owned by Estero Farms, bred by Mo Mentum Farm

Form: 02102

Unlikely to run and if he does the wide draw he will get will make it very tough.

AE Never Go Raw

Owned by Team 7 Illusions, bred by Boulevard

Form: 31010

A huge outsider to make the field but if he does then he would have to be looked at considering his last two excellent runs.

AE Strider

Owned By Joshua Stables bred by Joshua Stables

Form: 4101

Working well and whilst he may not get in the field today is worth putting on that watch list for next time.

SUMMARY

This is a notoriously hard race to try and work out and its made all the harder by the fact that all the two year old races this years seem to have been separated by a couple of lengths first to last. The key is not where a horse finished but where it was drawn in relation to today and how it saw out the race. To that end you have to start narrowing down horses firstly on their ability to stay the trip, secondly how they qualified for this race and finally where they are drawn to day and whether they have the pace and ability to win from there. That all sounds easy but due to the way these horses have all been finishing in heaps you still have atleast ten horses with a win chance so good luck and a lucky pin may be needed.

I think Locamotive, Last City and Crack Danz could be in the mix and i wouldn’t be writing off Jinxed Authority or Tko if the pace is fast. Good luck to all the owners and breeders.

Categories: BC 2018-20, Grade I, THE BREEDERS CUP