11/07/2020

 9   KEE        BC Mile – Grade 1
  $2,000.000         3yo&Up         1m Turf                 3yo 123lbs Older 126lbs

We go to the turf course for this one and look at the field for the 2020 BC Mile (GI).  This is a race that regardless of who wins, I will not be surprised.  With that being said, my top choice is Going Gone, as he seems to be the hot horse right now.  Back to back wins coming into this one, two wins over this course during the current year… he just seems to have the form and home field advantage.  My second choice also has a win over the track… Iron Nation took the Transylvania back in the spring and really hasn’t run a bad race this year.  As a sophomore, he picks up three pounds, and that could help as well.  It’s hard to look at a BC race and not put Mb Stables in the middle of it, so give Bold Express a big shot today.  He was second in the Shadwell Turf Mile (GI) over this surface, by the slimmest of margins. 

It’s a great field, it looks to be wide open, so lets get a good spot and see how this one goes.  Congratulations to all of the horses and their connections!

Here’s the Field –

Consistent type that is still looking for his first win of the year but has a second at 99/1 and a third at 31/1 in (GI) races, in his last two starts.  I’d expect him to be long odds again today, but he may be sitting on a big race and it would be a huge stage to do it on.

Three wins this season including a massive victory in the Shoemaker Mile (GI) at SA.  If he can run back to that race, he could be a huge factor, but it’s a tough place to get that done.  Still, you may want to keep an eye on him.

Back to back wins coming into this one and three wins on the season.  He won the Makers Mark Mile (GI) over this track back in the spring and the Shadwell Turf Mile (GI) during the fall meet.  Add in the DMR Mile (GII) and you have an impressive season.  Two wins over this track really makes my eyes open.

First of the trio of entries for Mb Stables and he’s been sharp this season winning four of six including the National Museum of Racing (GII) at SAR… along with two other graded wins.  He tired badly in the WO Mile (GI) or I’d probably be higher on this one.  He won the BC Juv Turf last season, so I’d give him a look.

The second of Mb Stables trio and has a pair of 2020 wins including the Secretariat Stakes (GI) at AP on a soft lawn.  He just missed last out over this course when closing fast to miss by a nose in the Shadwell Turf Mile (GI).  If he can avoid traffic and have a clear shot late, he could get the job done. 

Sold for a pretty penny two starts back and it’s been rough in the new barn.  Tenth at KD and a tiring twelfth over this track last out spells a long afternoon for this one.  Two wins earlier in the year but I think this is a tough spot. 

Nice win in the Kent Stakes at DEL back in Jul and was second in the Secretariat  Stakes (GI) then fourth here at KEE in the Shadwell (GI).  He’s been on the board in six of eight starts this year, so you may want to give him a hard look when putting those trifecta tickets together.

This three year old won his last out start over a soggy BEL course taking the Hill Prince (GII) by a neck and also won the Dixie (GII) at PIM back in the spring.  He looks to be in fine form, but I think a win here would be considered an upset.

Three wins from six starts including a big win in the American Stakes (GIII) at SA and won an Alw race over that strip last out, getting ready for today.  Those SA races got him home in pretty quick time, so maybe he pulls one out here?

Another with three seasonal wins, his biggest coming in the Forebidden Apple (GIII) at SAR back in the heat of the summer.  Also took down state-bred turf sprinters in his most recent, on a soggy WO course.  Still, this is a tough lot and I’d have to look at some others.

Four stakes wins this season, two of those of the graded variety including a win over this course in the Transylvania (GIII).  He’s also won his last two starts taking the SAR Derby with a huge purse then the WO Mile (GI) last out.  He’s about as sharp as you could want a horse to be… watch him.

He has a pair of wins this season including the Japiur (GI) at BEL, but the last three have been brutal.  Eighth in the BEL Derby (GI), tenth in the Arlington Million (GI) and sixth in the Simpson (GIII) at KD seems to say he’s just not in form right now.  He looks up against the wall in this one.

The third of the Mb Stables trio and he has a pair of wins from seven starts including a nice win in the Poker Stakes (GIII) and the Fourstardave (GI) at SAR.  Was eighth over this track last out in the Shadwell (GI) and he’s facing more of the same, if not better today. 

Max catches a bad break with this monster being in the outside gate, but he has tactical speed and could this actually swing in his favor?  Won the Red Bank (GII) showing that speed and just missed last out in the City Of Hope Mile (GII) at SA flashing his early foot before tiring late. 

Only a single Alw win in 2020 but he was close in a few stakes starts.  Would need to draw in but would be an outsider in my opinion.

Purchase from the Sep Auction prior to the second vs. high-end claimers at SA.  He would be long odds if he were to draw into this one. 

COZMAN Picks 3 / 11 / 5    Scotty 5 / 14 / 3     Willie’s Green Card   12 / 3 / 5 

Categories: BC 2018-20, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP