Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1)- $1,000.000 Purse
KEE- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile on the Turf
October 8, 2016
After a huge weekend last week, things have certainly not let up as we move forward to this Saturday. The days left to the BC are now under a month as of race day, and points are at a premium now. The time is now to run a big race, and the Shadwell Turf Mile is set to bring another runner into the BC Mile. This will be the 12th running of the race, and the list of past winners includes the likes of Dogma, Bbff, and Rockefella among many other stars. History is something that the winner of this race will be looking to make next month as the winner of the Shadwell has never been able to follow up the victory with a win in BC. On three occasions, the winner has been second in the BC Mile, but never has taken the spot. Last year’s winner, Iron Mann, is back in this field and looking to defend his title, but thirteen others in this full field are going to make things very difficult for him. Let’s meet this star studded field!
#1- Iron Mann (Aer Stables, ridden by F Pennington) (BC Mile Points: 8, Standings: 27th)
We get right to our winner from last year, doing so as a three year old. That is something that many people figure to say will happen again, but let’s not just count out the older horses, especially not one named Iron Mann. This has been a good year for the colt, with two victories, but neither of them were at the graded level. When running for higher stakes, his best performances are his last two races: a pair of thirds coming in the Fourstardave Handicap at SAR and the WO Mile up north. He’s been seeing his rivals here today all year and has had his moments amongst them, and is capable of beating any of them on any given day. I like that he seems to be a very consistent type.
#2- Tin Lizzie (Stald Gullis, ridden by R Alvarado Jr) (BC Mile Points: 12, Standings: 12th)
This gelding is on the bubble of the BC Mile Point standings right now, and may only need just a few more to get in. The year started great for Tin Lizzie, picking up a win in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at SA in March, but since then he has been coming up short. In his last seven races, he has five finishes of sixth or worse, and has not been better then 3rd in any of them. He has continued to run against top class competition in all of them, so he is used to seeing many of those he sees again here. The question is can he turn the tables on his own form more then anything else. Seemed to close well in his last start, but has no public works since the middle of August.
#3- Aggravation (Mb Stables, ridden by M E Smith) (BC Mile Points: 10, Standings: 14th)
This is the perfect time of year for a colt out of Pumpkin Spice Latte, so on that alone we should like his chances. He’s been pretty good on the race track as well, winning five of his eight starts this year, with two seconds. They have not always been against elite competition, as was only in June where the trainer lived up to the name of the stake, and he won the Wise Dan in his graded debut. Two months later, he was off to AP and getting a win in the Secretariat Stakes. The most recent race was an attempt to stretch it to the max, and it may be a hiccup on his overall record. He’s 2-for-2 with M E Smith aboard.
#4- Swamp Fox (Blushing Meadows, ridden by P Lopez) (BC Mile Points: 12, Standings: 9th)
This five year old ran a beauty of a race back in August at SAR, taking the G1 Fourstardave, earning a 103 SRF in the process. The win was stunning, and if he can run like that again, he will absolutely be in a great position to win the race. The question will really be, however, if he can run like that again. In his most recent start, he was a non-factor in the WO mile. Did it make that much of a difference that race was on turf listed as good? While a horse named this should love it wet, it may be a fair excuse. Look beyond that, though, and you will still see inconsistency. He’s run short and long, and on the main track all this year showing that the trainer knows this issue well. We’ll see which Swamp Fox shows up.
#5- Eastern Townships (Sanny Village, ridden by J Rosario) (BC Mile Points: 10, Standings: 17th):
Since the KYD, Eastern Townships has been sold in private sales twice. Since then July sale which saw him go from Harrell Racing to Sanny Village for $305.000, the gelding has been 7th of 8, 11th of 12, and 9th of 13. There could be excuses in that, as Sanny Village may have stretched his limits too much in the Sword Dancer, and he may not have liked the good turf he saw in the WO Mile. He seems to be due, but I would love to see a more recent public work, but there is none since the end of July. Regardless of how he is working, it is time to step up, and the time is now to do so.
#6- Bolkonski (Blushing Meadows, ridden by J Talamo) (BC Mile Points: 0)
This three year old gelding is going to be making his turf debut right here in the Shadwell Turf Mile. There are only a couple public turf works, and they are not making optimistic that he is going to beat the level of competition that he sees here. As one of the top trainers in the game, Blushing Meadows clearly has something that he sees on the farm that is making him give Bolkonski this tough assignment. He’s run in Grade 1’s like the Crosby and King Bishop, so no one’s saying he isn’t capable. We’ll see how it goes and if he wins it’s a great topic for the recap!
#7- Lunar Blaze (Australia Wide, ridden by L Saez) (BC Mile Points: 0)
The road between Pan Farms and Australia Wide was trafficked well again as Pan Farms shipped off his gelding who rides a five-race winning streak and good position in the BC Turf standings to Australia Wide for $1,250.000. These two have become frequent sales partners with large transactions, and sometimes that frequency creates more of an eyeroll then anything else. As for the horse, he has been very impressive, showing the ability to win on the dirt and turf, short or long, and by going right out to the lead and staying there. That is what he has done during the winning streak, just to make you want to sell him! As a budget stable, this is frustrating to see. Lunar Blaze’s talents are not. He’s a star no matter what silks he is wearing.
#8- Jovan River (Mb Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux) (BC Mile Points: 10, Standings: 19th)
Speaking of five race winning streaks, that was what Jovan River was on earlier ths year until he tried his talents going long at the Sword Dancer at SAR and found his chances getting stabbed in the back. He could only be 10th there, but let’s not forget that the Sword Dancer was one of our “virtual classics” where everyone finished within four lengths of one another. He will like cutting his distance back, as this simply seems to be in his wheelhouse the best. A couple of wins this summer were the Grade 3 Poker Handicap at BEL and the Grade 2 Read Stakes at DMR. Jovan River is set to recover from the tough outing at SAR here, and I am putting him on top.
#9- Hold The Mach (Night Rider Stables, ridden by C J Lanerie) (BC Mile Points: 11, Standings: 13th)
The runner up from this race also makes his return this year to try and do one spot better. He was able to run in the BC Mile last year, but was never able to threaten the top horses. Since that point, he has won two races, which are highlighted by the Grade 3 Appleton from GP in early April. When he has not been winning, he has still been able to show the ability to run with the leaders and be within a couple lengths of victory. This six year old has had a career to celebrate overall, and will be making his 30th start in the Shadwell. His next win will be his tenth.
#10- Mean Street (Nakamura Stables, ridden by J S Rocco Jr) (BC Mile Points: 0)
Whoever says older horses cannot be competitive has not told Mean Street as this six year old is enjoying the best year of his career, with four wins in his five starts in 2016. He had some moments along the way and was able to take part in the 2014 BC Turf, but this year has won three graded stakes, all at the Grade 2 level. Most recently, he was victorious in the Bowling Green Handicap at the Spa while being the high weight and carrying five more pounds then most of his competition. This also means he is rested, having not run since the end of July. He may be the “X” factor in this race.
#11- Compress (Cherrytree Hill Farm, ridden by V Espinoza) (BC Mile Points: 14, Standings: 4th)
There is no pressure on Compress here as he has already clinched his spot in the BC Mile. The came by virtue of winning the WO Mile last month, a race mentioned several times in this preview already, so we know he can still beat many of those he will be seeing here again. It was a great result for Compress, who was able to silence some doubters that he had been having over the summer months. He gave his trainer a great ride through the prep season, and while it did not end up in a TC win, there is still the BC Mile out there. On Saturday, Compress gets in his prep race for the big one next month.
#12- Keep Silent (Nakamura Stables, ridden by E Maldonado) (BC Mile Points: 0)
This three year old gelding got off to a great start at the beginning of the year, winning his first four races, which included the muddy Grade 3 Marine Stakes at WO in May. The majority of his career has been on the main track, and only once before has he been on the grass, so at least this is not a debut on turf for him. That was two starts ago, in July at DMR, where he ran third to Jovan River and Spotted Cat in the Read Stakes, and was within a length of them, so certainly that result shows a lot of promise for this race. I really like what Nakamura is doing here with this one, as Keep Silent is certainly very capable, fittingly with his name, he might get overlooked at the betting window.
#13- Irish Flu (Sanny Village, ridden by J K Court) (BC Mile Points: 0)
Not only do we have last year’s Shadwell winner in this race, we also have the winner from 2014 in it. Good to see Irish Flu still going strong as he gets set to make just his fourth start of the year. The results aren’t really there for the gelding in 2016, with just a lone third place run to show for his three starts, that coming in the Grade 3 Appleton in April. Four of his last five starts have seen him be 5th or worse, and its interesting to see the high prices that he has consistently been going off at. You might want to start running him off, then you look at that recent work up at BEL. He’s still got it, and I have a good feeling about him ready to fire off a big one here.
#14- Valiant Charge (Threshold, ridden by D E Centeno) (BC Mile Points: 0)
Finally on the outside, we come to Valiant Charge, a three year old PA-bred that has won one of five starts this year, but has actually shown the consistency to always be in the mix. Going back to 2015 a bit, we know he knows how to win as he did so in the first three races of his career. The best race to look at coming into this one is the Grade 1 BEL Derby, where he was within a couple lengths of the winning Lunar Blaze, who figures to be the favorite in this race as well. Can Valiant Charge make up those lengths? That was a longer race, and I think that he might be better suited with more distance then he has here, but we shall see!
Prediction: 8-11-7-13
— NS
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
