March 10, 2015

The Grade I Kilroe Mile almost needs no introduction, as the 10-year-old stakes race has become synonymous with greatness and will be contested once again on Saturday afternoon with a $400.000 purse for the second year in a row. The winners at HRP read like a who’s who of champions with Smokey Bear taking the first running when it was still a Grade II event, followed by Alpha Ultimo, duel winner Jagged Account and Iroquois Warrior after him; they would combine for more than $18.000.000 in total earnings. The next three winners would be Shoot Skyhigh, Charming Behrens and Square Box and they would combine for more $10.000.000 themselves and while Seven Years has only earned $3700.000 in his career, he still became the latest BC Mile winner to score with his win last year over a field that included defending champion Hollywood Freak and future BC Mile winner Sir Tom. He is back to defend his title but while he does not face the Mile winner, he faces multiple Grade I winners, the BC Turf Sprint champ and even a superstar on the main track who returns to the turf for the first time in more than two-years with hopes of being a star on the turf as well.

1-Bombastic Kathology (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Oval Express Farms)

Bombastic Kathology won a single race last year but it happened to be the Grade I AP Million and since he has not really come close to success at that level at any other point, he has to be considered a longshot even as he comes in off a wire-to-wire score that this one-mile trip. He has proven to be effective going this short in the past and seems to show more speed than usual; couple that with an inside post and you could get a four-year-old who could upset at an enormous price.

Analysis-Has shocked the racing world before

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Iron Mann (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Iron Mann is much more suited to the distance of the Kilroe than his inside rival but will be coming from well off the pace at an inside disadvantage and the big key with him will be finding running room late. He certainly has the talent to win and comes in off a big prep over the same course but he failed to finish with any real gusto and might need to be faster on the track to prove victorious against rivals who have beaten him in the past.

Analysis-Grade I winner will be charging down the lane

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Swamp Fox (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

You have to go back to January of last year to find the last time Swamp Fox won a race and in his last two one-mile efforts, he was sent off at 306-1 and 565-1 respectively; that should give you an indication of how well he will be backed on Saturday. He did close for third in the Arcadia last time and has come around with the addition of a shadow roll but those odds cannot be overlooked and while he might be lower here, he still needs more to win.

Analysis-Been a long time between wins for this gelding

Fair Odds-30/1

4-Sandor Clegane (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Smithtown Stables)

At 24-1, Sandor Clegane came with a neck of winning the BC Mile last year to cap off a decent but overlooked season and now, he will try to build on a solid career despite losses in his last three races as the favourite. He does cut back in distance for this race and might have found the pace at GP and SA a little too lackluster; if the fractions are quick up front, he could sit the ideal trip and duplicate his effort from KEE a few months ago.

Analysis-Ran a cracker in the BC and looks to repeat

Fair Odds-12/1

5-Dogs Dragon (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Two Grade II wins and a third in the BC Turf Sprint have proven that Dogs Dragon was worth every bit of the $400.000 paid for him last June and he will try to step up one level and score the Kilroe Mile off a close fifth in the Arcadia. He failed to muster enough pace carrying a big weight but gets back two-pounds and that could enhance his chances; all in all, he warrants a brief look as one of the longer shots.

Analysis-Grade II winner is no slouch but needs that little bit more

Fair Odds-10/1

6-Seven Years (Seven-year-old black horse / Owner-Alydar Stables)

After a massive five-year-old campaign, Seven Years had a disappointing six-year-old season by his standards with only two wins and a tenth in the Mile but after winning the San Gabriel and coming oh so close in he GP Turf Handicap on soft ground, he will get a firm turf in his return to SA and looks good to defend his title. Workouts at GP and SA have been blistering and there is so much to like about this horse-for-course; if he gets into the clear around the far turn, look out!

Analysis-Big shot in here off his past efforts at SA
Fair Odds-2/1

7-Mister Major (Eight-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Mister Major came into the BC Classic with three straight Grade I scores but could only finish sixth in his second attempt at glory; now, he makes a complete 180-degree turn off a tiring effort in the Hals Hope and moves to the grass for the first time since May 2013, when he was claimed for a paltry $16.000. He has made more than $3100.000 since then but everything has been on the main track and while he does have five wins on the surface, this is a true wildcard play and well, one for the ages if he wins.

Analysis-No idea what to make of him in this spot

Fair Odds-4/1, or 40/1

8-Bad Mouth (Four-year-old chestnut horse / Owner-Tiratzo)

For a horse who has only won a single state-bred stakes race, Bad Mouth certainly has attracted his share of purchases and after being taken for $290.000, he enters the Kilroe with something to prove after evening out in fourth over this course in the Arcadia. Second by a wide margin in the two starts before that, he set the pace in those and might be better from off the mark; look for him to take back from midpack and try to secure a spot before making a final run

Analysis-Has failed to make ground up when it counts

Fair Odds-10/1

9-Jamfest (Eight-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Jkk Racing Stables)

It is weird to think that in June 2013, Mister Major and Jamfest met in the Cammack Handicap going short at AP and while neither won, both have gone on to BC success and will meet once again in what could be a lopsided affair. Jamfest is the two-time defending BC Turf Sprint champ but also a winner at this one-mile trip in the Poker with a huge 104-speed rating and after finishing second in the Arcadia, he has all the right momentum to take this win against a class field and prove he is not the shadow but the equal of his old rival.

Analysis-Turf monster will try to take sprinting to a longer distance

Fair Odds-3/1

10-Dogs Infowarrior (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Grimley)

Equally adept on the main track or the turf, Dogs Infowarrior has had success on the turf before with a win at SAR last Summer and a fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile and if you look back to that sharp second in the Ft. Lauderdale, you have to consider him for at least a minor piece. He has excellent workouts over the downhill turf and will be sitting a nice trip from an outside post but the likelihood is that he is a horse who will be just along for his share, rather than really taking it to the leaders.

Analysis-Seems to be an opportunist against this type of field

Fair Odds-8/1

11-Tin Lizzie (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Stald Gullis)

Tin Lizzie claimed his lone Grade I over a soft course in the Read Stakes last Summer at DMR and while he has won a one-mile race over the SA course, he has been unable to duplicate that success as of late and will need to step up his game going longer than his last. In the BC Mile, he sat far back and came with a powerful run to finish in midpack and the fear is that the pace on Saturday will be slower, leading to a deflated closing kick that could leave him short.

Analysis-Outside run will be benefit but needs a pace

Fair Odds-10/1

12-Sri Lanka (Seven-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Heavens Own)

Sri Lanka has not raced at the one-mil distance in more than a year but a quartet of wins including one at the highest level make him a logical choice for a top three placing, as does a huge win in the Ft. Lauderdale after sitting just off the pace. He comes in with the best last out speed rating and that is always a good point to focus on but also gets the outside stall and will need to get into the race early if he hopes to save some ground in what should be a faster pace than normal for him.

Analysis-Has the class but faces a distance challenge

Fair Odds-5/1

Overall

A battle of two BC winners looms quite large in the Grade I Kilroe Mile and when the Turf Sprint and the Mile champions face each other, you have to go with the one who is proven at the distance and that is why Seven Years warrants a bigger look than Jamfest, with both coming in off close runner-up finishes in ultra tough Graded Stakes contests. Sri Lanka is proven at this level but cuts back to an unfamiliar distance from the outside post and ranks only third while the true wildcard in the field is Mister Major, testing turf for the first time in ages will little reference to go on at this level.

Prediction

Win-Seven Years (2/1)

Place-Jamfest (3/1)

Show-Sri Lanka (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES