April 2, 2016

The Grade III Tokyo City Cup used to be a prep for races like the BC Marathon but it now sits as a starting point for races like the Brooklyn and the Premiers, with a solid field of six assembled led by five newly aged older horses looking to make their mark. Half of the field comes into this 1 ½ mile race off a victory including a Grade II winner but the role of favourite might just go to the Grade I BEL winner from last year who was unable to duplicate that success again but certainly loves to go a route of ground.

1-Condottieri Cream (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Boulevard)

Condottieri Cream was claimed for $2.500 at PM and now races in a Grade III event; if he had raced at this level previously, you could forgive him, but the jump in class is just way too much and he will be one of the outsiders in this tough field. He has cracked a 90+ speed rating in the past but only earned a 78-mark two back and that kind of effort is not enough to win an event of this magnitude, especially facing a former classic winner at his best distance.

Analysis-Makes a huge leap and one that will prove too much

Fair Odds-25/1

2-Deja Steel (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Deja Steel pulled off a 38-1 shocker in the Grade I BEL last year as one of two seasonal victories but could only manage minor placings in the latter part of the season and off a good third in his four-year-old debut, will hope to continue that improvement with the return to the main track. A closing second at AQU two back at this same distance, he caught quick fractions in his BEL win and capitalized; speed to his inside from a sprinter will help the pace along and that could be enough to turn the tides in his favour.

Analysis-Grade I winner loves this distance

Fair Odds-4/1

3-Hes Spectacular (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Barcelona Farms)

Five wins and his last seven starts including four in stakes company make Hes Spectacular a logical choice in the Tokyo City and while he did start off 2016 with a dead-heat win at FG, his last was a complete regression in a slow final time and he will need to be faster to make the top three in this spot. He came into his own around this time last year with a bunch of good finishes as the distances got longer and while this might be tougher than he is used to, he has the class to contend for the win.

Analysis-Had a great 2015 and will hope to continue that this year

Fair Odds-5/1

4-Macht Nichts (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Grade I winner Macht Nichts scored in his first start of 2015 at GG, and scored in his last start of 2015 in the Grade II HAW Gold Cup, and his ability to handle a route of ground should be his biggest asset as he makes his first start in more than four-months. An excellent one-mile workout at SA in preparation looked impressive and his owner knows how to get a colt ready for a big day so look for a huge effort in comeback and the chance for him to step forward as the season goes on.

Analysis-Nice to see him back after a good 2015

Fair Odds-3/1

5-Copperhead Rythym (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Bigchief Stables)

Copperhead Rythym did not make another start in 2015 after his debacle in the SUN Derby and while his two efforts in returning have been okay, they are not what makes a Grade III stakes winner and he will have to quicken his early speed if he hopes to outfinish a horse who beat him at HOU last time out. Blistering workouts seem to be working in his favour but he needs to show more speed at these route distances and that will make him one of the longer shots as he tries to get his career back on track.

Analysis-Continues his comeback in a tough spot

Fair Odds-12/1

6-Socal Man (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Owner Mb Stables has one of the favourite in the Tokyo City but has a back-up plan with Socal Man, the oldest in the field but one who comes in off two straight going-away wins over the SA main track. Both came at route distances, both came with big speed ratings and both came from off the early pace and with the inside speed and the smaller field, he stands the best chance of closing into the fractions and upsetting the likely favourite.

Analysis-Tries for three in a row over the SA dirt

Fair Odds-7/2

Overall

Machts Nicht was impressive enough in the HAW Gold Cup to become the top pick in the Grade III Tokyo City Cup but he faces a pair of top entrants from owner Mb Stables and will need be at his best from off the pace to take his second straight win. Socal Man looks for his third straight but first in stakes company and should get a great outside trip while stablemate Deja Steel is certainly the class of the field but has to regain some lost form to prove best.

Prediction

Win-Macht Nichts (3/1)

Place-Socal Man (7/2)

Show-Deja Steel (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES