HOL Derby – Grade I
DMR   Race #9   1 1/8m   Turf   Graded Stake
Purse $300.000  For Three Year Olds.

1 I Have Arrived, trained by Mb Stables
Bought for fifty dollars when still a maiden he quickly broke maidens and followed up with an allowance win for his new stable. His first big test came in the Kent Stakes and he passed with flying colours coming home a length clear after making all the running over this trip. He backed that up in his next start, the grade one Secretariat Stakes, running on strongly to be beaten just a half length into third. Those two runs were very good indeed and his work times are super but his Achilles heal showed up in his last start in the Northern Dancer where he failed on an off track for the second time in his career. As long as the ground stays fast he will have a very good chance from this inside draw but even a hint of moisture will consign him to the back of the field.

2 Pinstripes Proud, trained by Aer Stables
Another that was still at Allowance level when the TC was being contested he has come a long way since June recording triple digit speed figures in hs last three starts. After winning a little state bred race he burst onto the scene in the BEL Derby running on strongly for a close fourth. He then contested The Secretariat and finished just a half length behind I Have Arrived in finishing fourth again. In his last start, The Hill Prince he again ran a solid race finishing third behind Lure and Raj Action Packed. He is a tough sort who deserves another shot but as he has been beaten by all the principals he will need to find a little extra to get a win today.

3 Lure, trained by Our Athletes
Was an inconsistent sort under his previous owner running a huge second in the Pen Mile but then getting lost in the BEL Derby and finishing eighth. Our Athletes bought him after that for $150 and seems to have got him running with a little more consistency. A great second in the DMR Derby was followed by a gutsy win in the Hill Prince and that form is good enough to put him right at the sharp end in this race. He again got lost from a wide draw in his last start running on late to be a close and eye catching fifth in the BC Mile. An inside draw will again see him at his best and he has a winning chance.

4 Fluctuation, trained by Mb Stables
Another that has to come to hand late he burst onto the scene with a charging half length win in The National Museum Of Racing. He followed that up with another graded stakes win in The Saranac and in his last start contested in the strong form race for this event. Keeping on strongly under a drive he dead heated for third in the Hill Prince finishing with Pinstripes Proud just a length behind Lure and Raj Action Packed. Those four should run very close again so it may come all down to tactics as to which one will come out on top.

5 Raj Action Packed, trained by Night Rider Stables
A length behind Fluctuation in The Saranac, a length in front of the same horse in The Hill Prince and a head behind Lure his form lines read like a complicated detective novel. The advantage he has in this race is that he seems to be still improving as he showed in hs last start when taking the Twilight Derby by a half length. Its hard to separate the four runners here with the entangled form lines and as i said for Fluctuation it will come down to the day as to which one comes out on top.

6 Compress, trained by Cherrytree Hill Farm
His head win in the FL Derby set him up as one of the talking horses of the season. He failed but ran well in both his TC starts as he did in the BEL Derby when coming from a poor start to be beaten just a length into ninth. At that point in the season many were calling him a failure after such a promising start but he silenced his critics in The WO Mile when storming home for a three quarter length win. Since then he ran third in the Shadwell Turf Mile before a huge effort when closing hard for a close third in the BC Mile. He will start a deserved favourite for this race but can be vulnerable to a late kick from a squeeze box draw which may see him fighting to get into an early stalk or lead.

7 Big Daddy Z, trained by Maxmillion Farm
He had been plucking easy money on the state bred circuit before an unlikely win in the DMR Derby where he beat Lure fairly easily by a length. That form is just about the best form in this race apart from Compress and he proved that was no fluke when a late flying third in te Hirsch Turf Classic. Sold by Australia Wide for $250 just over a week ago he could well be the biggest threat to Compress. His works suggest continuing improvement and he will eat up this trip.

8 The Land, trained by Wolf Ridge Stables
Its hard to write off any runner in this race and this one is no exception. Beaten a length in The Twilight Derby last time by Raj Action Packed he had previously won the Commonwealth Derby by a very easy three lengths. He certainly goes into the hat with atleast six runners as a winning chance and has been working as well as any. The widish draw is a concern but given a fair trip he is certainly in the mix.

9 Wait Till Monday, trained by Nakamura Stables
The least exposed of all the runners he ran a nice race to win the Mohawk by a head last time out. On form he would be easy to write off but again his works are among the best on turf and he makes it nine from nine with a chance of winning especially if we see an off track.

SUMMARY
Well we have come to expect these three year old races to be a bit of a lottery and this one is no exception. With form lines like a spiders web they all have a chance of winning somewhere in their career so it is with trepidation that i try and pick a winner out of the heads and noses that will separate most of these at the end. I will go for Big Daddy Z to beat Compress with anything else in third, maybe a six way dead heat, who knows.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES