Alywow Stakes
WO Race #5 6 1/2f Turf Stake
Purse $100.000 (plus up to $15.000 for ON-breds) For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Humidity Factor Fractious Contreras L 123 —

This filly has been blessed with some decent draws this year and has run some nice races from them including a third last time out and grade three level. The winner of four from eleven, her only win this year came at a mile when ridden on the pace but since then she has been a bit outpaced early on and had to do it the hard way from behind. That running style has resulted in no more wins and whilst the inside draw can be a blessing it can also be the kiss of death for a closer. She certainly has the form to be a big part of this race and must be among the win chances.

2 Baby Come Back Nakamura Stables Stein J 123 —

After running third in the Miss Grillo and taking her place in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, she has been campaigned at lower grade and couldn’t even find a win at lowly TUP. Having said that some of those low-level races are as good as stakes races these days, so whilst she hasn’t been herself so far this year, I wouldn’t write her off based on her season so far. She gets a great draw but will need to improve on her efforts to get a piece of this.

3 Great Beach Lemax Farms Civaci S 123 —

Showed last time with a quick time on an off track that her best chance here may come with rain. Her form is fair on any going, but she has yet to prove herself at this level despite some improving work times. She may be a bit of a dark horse in this but would have to improve a lot to beat the best in the field.

4 Smokin Shimmer Mb Stables Moran D 123 —

As usual these days we have to consider first of all, the runners from the two stables who seem to hold a bulk of the three-year-old stakes horses. This one from Mb Stables is coming back to sprinting after a successful spell over longer trips where she won the CAC Oaks and was a very close second in the FL Oaks. Coming back in trip is interesting, but she ran well enough in the Matron to suggest she can sprint at this level so the only question will be how she fits in the running of this race. We know being from this yard that she is likely to be on pace, the question is whether she can keep a fast pace going for the full trip.

5 Rudimental Fractious Salles L 123 —

Won the grade three Senorita last time over this trip so could well be the logical choice among the four runners from the top two stables. She hasn’t risen to the heights of Smokin Shimmer in the top races yet but clearly has the ability. She went from a mid-pack type to a front runner last time which of course is how we roll with the gaming button and the race engine trumping most running styles, so it will be interesting to see if she goes with the same tactics today and sets up a possible speed battle with the horse inside her.

6 Nickel And Dime Mb Stables Crawford J 123 —

An out and out sprinter she hasn’t got the form of her three rivals from the top two stables but of course is working faster than them, so we are left with the usual question of the class gene. She ran well enough in the Very One last time to suggest she can compete at stakes level, but she still has something to prove over her stable mate.

7 Dylans Truth La Canada Racehorses Kimura K 123 —

Another nice sprinting filly, apart from one blip she has been pretty consistent and certainly isn’t out of the equation here. She may benefit from any speed battle, and I can see her coming on strong at the end; I guess the question is whether she can beat the exposed stakes form of some of the others.

8 Kuul Off Asgar Wilson E J 123 —

The stable has been in good form and this one may be the fly in the ointment for the big two stables. She was very game when she won the Giants Causeway in April but couldn’t back that up last time in the Mamzelle when a bit one paced in fourth. I think from this draw she goes back so a fast pace may benefit her but you have to get the timing exactly right to win from behind these days so she may be a fast finishing third rather than a winning chance.

9 Sister Nancy D J C Racing Stables Husbands P 123 —

This was the winner of the Mamzelle that Kuul Off was fourth in but at HRP we know better than to rely on actual form when making our choices. She ran the stalk that day as is her usual style but with this outside draw will have to rely on the race engine to give her a chance of doing that today. That last effort was a big improvement so she certainly could go on with it today.

SUMMARY

An interesting race which is as usual dominated by Fractious and Mb Stables. The easiest choice would be one of them, but I can see a speed battle developing here, so I am looking for one to come from maybe mid-pack or a loose stalk. That one could well be Humidity Factor although the AI will have to get it just right to find the line. Other than that, I have nothing for you so just box up some runners here and hope for the best.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded