June 3, 2016

To say that the Grade I Vanity Stakes is not important in the realm of the Distaff division in thoroughbred racing, is to say that all the champions and Hall Of Fame entrants who have won it since 1940 were just in the right place, at the right time, and could handle the ever changing distances from eight- to ten-furlongs. From Busher to Honeymoon, Bewitch to Two Lea, Gamely (who just had her own Grade I run this past Monday) to Princess Rooney and onto Bayakoa, Paseana, Azeri and Zenyatta, the list of past champions is almost immortal and that list continues at HRP, with horses like Angel Of Mercy, Better Miss, Rhythm Line, Golden Chance and Stella Artois as past winners with more Grade I winners signed on this year. While only six have been entered, two have already passed $1,000.000 in lifetime earnings and another is on the verge, although the best chance could come from the inside in a filly who has a recent victory over the course and could be sitting on a huge effort.

1-Live For Today (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

After a big win in the Grade III Pine and a second in the Grade I Zenyatta to stablemate Pure Lisa, Live For Today was put on the shelf until her four-year-old season and has come back with three huge wins, setting her up for a return to Grade I company over her favourite track. A blowout win three back, and a game victory in the Adoration show improving speed ratings and while workouts might not be as fast as others, there is still much to like about her, with inside stalking trips all the rage now at HRP.

Analysis-Top filly aims for her fourth in a row

Fair Odds-5/1

2-Brawl Dead End (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Third to her now stablemate back in August last year, Brawl Dead End has more than earned back her $135.000 purchase price with a Grade I win and placing efforts in both the Azeri BC and the La Troienne and now, gets that all important cut back in distance that will allow a much quicker pace and much better late kick. Speed ratings are solid and she has really not done a thing wrong in here so look for another big effort from an improving filly who worked better than her stablemate on May 31 and could finish ahead of her in this spot.

Analysis-Has done little to show she is less than the best

Fair Odds-4/1

3-Hydro (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Much like her stakes winning siblings, Hydro seems to excel at longer distances and after three stakes wins last year over both turf and dirt, she has focused on the main track for her 2016 campaign and should be able to rebound from a tiring third in the Apple Blossom, where she set the pace and failed to hold course. She might get some pressure up front from outside speed and that could set things up for a closer and the key might be the fact that she has never raced on the SA main track, where others have, and that could give her a disadvantage that could mean the difference between a win and just a placing.

Analysis-Multiple Grade II winner looks for that breakthrough effort

Fair Odds-6/1

4-Ocala Express (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Ocala Express is winless in five starts this year and while she was a solid second in both the Royal Delta and Azeri BC, they came in behind rivals in this field and she will have to be better than them if she even wants to hit the board. Speed ratings have been on the downward since she capped over her three-year-old campaign in style and even if she does appreciate the move back to a longer distance, she still needs to handle the class and that will make her a longshot.

Analysis-Has not been the better of rivals she meets again

Fair Odds-12/1

5-Broomsticks N Booty (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

It has really been a tough go of things for Broomsticks N Booty since she won the KY Oaks last year at more than 13-1 and this year alone, she has been second five times in six starts including once against males, and it just seems like she is due for a breakthrough at some point. It will either be that, or she will finish up the track, and after finishing a bang-up second in the Ruffian at BEL over this same distance, it feels like this could be the race where she sits the perfect trip and runs down the speed duel, especially over a course that she is so familiar with already this season.

Analysis-Always plays the bridesmaid but needs to really come through

Fair Odds-2/1

6-Shimoon Kruz (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Ekli Stable)

Shimoon Kruz won the Grade I Acorn last year after a solid Spring campaign but only has a single allowance win to her credit since and really needs a big rebound at this level if she wants to hit the board against solid Grade I company. She tried to make all the running at WO over a good main track but failed to hold on at 30-1 and now, face tougher off the big ship-in and will simply have to be faster and stronger to grab a share.

Analysis-Needs much more than she has been showing lately

Fair Odds-20/1

Overall

There really is a lot of talent in the Grade I Vanity Stakes on Saturday afternoon but it is interesting to see that none of the runners from last year and back and that leaves Broomsticks N Booty as the top contender, even with her multiple runner-up finishes dogging her ability to get the victory with any confidence. Brawl Dead End certainly knows how to win and has been improving with each start while stablemate Live For Today rides a big three-race streak and a win over the track last time to the highest level of her career so both have a chance to upset from the inside and could lead to one of many starters in the Distaff for owner Mb Stables.

Prediction

Win-Broomsticks N Booty (2/1)

Place-Brawl Dead End (4/1)

Show-Live For Today (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES