May 26, 2015
A huge stakes program dedicated to CA-breds has been assembled on Saturday afternoon at SA and the Melair Stakes is one of the highlights, with five talented three-year-old fillies signed on to travel 1 1/16 miles on the main track. With a solid $200.000 purse, the winner will have her named etched alongside Grade II Magical Tanzania, BC Juvenile Fillies runner-up Whoa Man Power and multiple Grade I winner Troubled Summer as a past winner, and move their career forward as a first-time stakes winner in the process.
1-Princess Legion (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Aml Racing)
Princess Legion was a solid optional claiming winner over a good GP course two back but flopped after a poor start in the GP Oaks and will try to regroup with a much better inside post with which to work. An April 30 workout at LA was quite solid and she gets a big jockey switch that will also help her chances so look for an improved effort from this daughter of Legion, even if it does not lead to the victory.
Analysis-Rail will help but still needs to show more
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Saw The 1st Work Wow (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Australia Wide)
Saw The 1st Work Wow was aptly named after being purchased for $150.000 and looks to build on good juvenile form with her second race off the layoff, after failing to show anything in the Bourbonette last time at TP. Speed ratings have regressed since that top mark in the Chandelier and as a confirmed closer, she will need to find some early pace and that will come from the outside, potentially blocking her in unless they angle out as they tend to do over the turns at SA.
Analysis-Needs to find late room to close into the pace
Fair Odds-10/1
3-Zahonita (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Diablo Diablo)
Although she has been facing much easier and not earning the highest speed ratings, Zahonita has the most upside potential of anyone in the Melair field since she comes in off a solid win and should appreciate the distance as well, with plenty of momentum as she stretches her legs. Her victory at HOU was not only quick but hard fought with a big battle down the lane against a rival who came back to win and that kind of effort will work to her advantage if others do not have the stamina required to get the distance.
Analysis-On the improve and could be dangerous at a price
Fair Odds-6/1
4-Heart Nebulae (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-SamIam)
Heart Nebulae went from maiden winner to allowance winner to Grade I entrant in the SA Oaks and was certainly not disgraced as a close third after making all the fractions, even if many of the fillies she faced went to the KY Oaks and failed to hit the board. This is a decidedly easier event and her last speed rating is clearly the best in the field; couple that with speed from the outside and experience at the distance and you have the logical favourite to score her first added-money win in only her sixth career start.
Analysis-Impressive over this course last time and meets a much easier field
Fair Odds-9/5
5-Zenna The Ruler (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Mare Racing)
Perfect against state-bred runners and coming in off a huge win over this course with the addition of blinkers, Zenna The Ruler needs only to handle the slight jump in class to win the Melair and gets the best jockey in the colony back aboard, and a chance to run down what could be loose-on-the-lead speed. Workouts over the track have been blazing and she gets plenty of room to move and negotiate her position from the outside and between her and her rival inside, this looks like the easiest exacta with each having a reason to be the favourite.
Analysis-Will have first run from a beautiful outside post
Fair Odds-2/1
Overall
Loose speed versus stalking prowess makes the Melair Stakes at SA on Saturday a very interesting race and Heart Nebulae ranks as the slight favourite for this handicapper, simply based on that huge effort in the SA Oaks and the fact that she will be controlling the pace. Zenna The Ruler will certainly be close to the early splits and could easily swoop by for the win but anything less than fast up front will hinder her chances, and those of Zahonita as well, since she will also be sitting close and will need to improve to challenge the top two.
Prediction
Win-Heart Nebulae (9/5)
Place-Zenna The Ruler (2/1)
Show-Zahonita (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
