CA Cup Oaks ($200.000 Purse)
SA- For Fillies Three Years Old Foaled in CA
One Mile on the Turf
February 18, 2019

A field of seven has gotten together at SA for a President’s Day race for three year old female Californians. It will be the sixth time that this race will be run. Last year were saw quite a bit of “Chai’s” in the field, though it was won by Broken Chat, and Estero Farms. She went on to have a solid season, and ended up placing fifth in the BC Fillies and Mares Turf. That’s the goal for our runners here today, and they can all be considered up and comers because no one in this field has more then $70.000 in career earnings. It almost has the look, to me, of an early season two year old stake, and that’s not meant to be a slight on anyone. Who’s going to get the first big win of their career? Let’s meet the contestants!

#1- Smudge (Night Rider Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Made her debut on BC day at CD, then was sold in the auction a month later for $21.210. Picked up by Night Rider, who got her to break her maiden, in her second start, two weeks ago, right here. Prat was aboard for that race as well. It’s a short turnaround, but she is very raw.

#2- Good For Nowt (Diablo Diablo, ridden by T C Baze)- With nine starts in her career, Good For Nowt is the highest earner in the field, at $68.210. Not too long after breaking her maiden, she appeared in the Grade 1 Spinaway at SAR, though that proved to be a little much for her. She shows some early inconsistency, but doesn’t have two bad runs in a row. This makes her due for a good run. Glad she is on the turf, and her experience should account for something.

#3- Installed Parts (Chili King Stables, ridden H Figueroa)- Her first three starts were very ugly, but then she met the grass. She won her debut on the turf in late November in a statebred at GG, and then was propelled right into a $75.000 stake right here at the end of December, and she faded late after starting well. With rest, and time to improve, she’s one to watch in this field.

#4- Pivotal Cherokee (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- This will only be the fourth race for the filly, but she’s been able to win two of three thus far. This makes her the only horse in the field that has more then one career win. See why I say it looks like an early year two year old stake? Perfect on the grass, and handed the yieldling surface quite well at GG in the process.

#5- Hopewell Tradition (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by B Blanc)- Since it does look like a two year old stake, let’s focus on the breeding here. She is by Cherokee Sunset, who has established himself now as one of the top sires in the game. She is all out of No Prayers, who was frequently bred to Commanding, and produced No Doubt About It, the 2016 BC Sprint winner. Hopewell Tradition has one win in her career, but her last start saw her place fourth in the Grade 3 Durant. I think she is going to continue to grow, and I like her in this field.

#6- Oblivion (Aer Stables, Mario Gutierrez)- This one has made four starts, and has finished once in each of the top four spots. It doesn’t help that it started with a maiden win, and got one position worse each time. While she is hard to get excited about, she is rally running up against similar here, so she could get the win. Or continue that trend and finish fifth.

#7- Outside Shot (Barcelona Farms, ridden by Mar Garcia)- She will get a chance to truly be an outside shot from this post, but that won’t be an issue. Like her rivals, she is lightly raced and makes her fourth start. Her last start was probably better then it looks, and she has had time to improve off of that. If so, she has a great shot just like the others.

Prediction: 5-3-2-4

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded