Can Anyone Topple Niagra?

The Donn Handicap – Grade I  

GP   Race #11   1 1/8m   Dirt   Graded Stake
Purse $500.000  For Four Year Olds And Upward.

I dont think i will ever understand the handicapping system here at HRP but here we have a grade one race with a BC Classic winner
and only three pounds seperating the field. If this was an Allowance race there would be a bigger spread in the weights so to call
it a handicap really seems a little ridiculous. What it does do though is give us a mouthwatering race with ex champs taking on wannabe’s
and some of the best of last years three year olds seeing if they can mix it with last years super veterans.
Here is how they line up:

1 West Northwest, trained by Grimley
Something changed for this six year old after he was beaten in a fair track allowance last March. It was
at a time when five year olds seemed to be getting the edge over the other age groups and he has remained unbeaten ever since.
There doesnt seem to be too many explanations over his huge step up, there has been no noticable change in running style and
although his trainer changed in the middle of his recent rise i am not sure that had much effect. The result of his meteoric rise
in class has been four wins in a row and a grade one win in the Cigar Handicap last time out. Its hard to fault that game neck win
but a rise in the weights will have to see another step up if he wants to confirm that perfromance. I think the 121Lbs may just
undo him today but he is sure to be competitive over a trip that looks sure to suit.

2 Steel Kelp, trained by Serenity Stables
Another older horse at the age of seven he too has benefitted from last seasons apparent rise of the older generation. Plying most
of his trade in overnights he was a very consistent turf router winning eight on the surface. It was only after he was claimed in
August last year that he started to show his class and has since run four placings at graded level. Only beaten a head when third in
the BC Marathon his seasonal debut saw him place second in the San Pasqual Stakes. He gets in here at a very raceable weight and his
works are quick enough to put him right in the picture.

3 Flying Warrior, Axeman
He had a good season last year as a three year old wining the ONT Derby and the Empire Classic before running a brilliant second in
the HAW Gold Cup. If you take away his seasonal debut you would have to give him a big chance but it is hard to ignore his weak effort
in the San Pasqual. On the pace early he faded into a well beaten ninth that day and it does make you wonder how he has trained on.
His works are good but not as good as the best of them so even with a raceable weight i would have to pass him over in this competitive race.

4 Greek Poet, trained by Hawaiian Shirt Guy
Claimed from Barcelona Farms for just fifty dollars just three weeks later he was winning the $1000 Queens Plate. He backed up that huge win with
a win in the $500 Prince Of Wales Stakes before a competitive fourth in the Travers. It came undone for him in the JC Gold Cup but he wasnt far
away when fourth in the BC Marathon. His seasonal debut was good too, taking the race by the scruff of the neck and never looking like being
beaten in a competitive overnight at GP. That race proves he is well but consistency is not this horses strong point so you have to trust that he can run
up to His Queens Plate form. He gets in here with bottom weight which makes him a good chance but his works have been pretty avaerage and weight
alone may not be enough.

5 Stranger, trained by Sanny Village
Three statebred stakes wins in a row made this horse an attractive proposition at the auctions last year and Sanny Village paid $450 for the three year old.
His first race for his new owner came in the JC Gold Cup where he ran a great race to be beaten a length in second. That was far and away his best
effort but it looked like the trip just found him out. This mile and an eighth looks perfect for him and his recent works make him a very viable chance for
the winners enclosure especially with a very fair 119Lbs on his back.

6 Niagra, trained by D J C Racing Stables
There are many superlatives to describe this horse but his achilies heel is wet ground and he will not run if there is any moisture in the dirt.
As long as it doesnt rain then he has every right to win this race especially as he seems to have ‘got away’ with only 120Lbs. The winner of the
2014 BC Classic he won the CT Classic last year and was beaten less than a neck in no less than three grade ones. He showed up for a long way in
last years classic eventually finishing fourth but came out again before the end of the year and ran another grade one second beaten only a neck
in the Cigar Handicap. He gets a pull in the weights for that defeat and barring rain is a sure thing for the top three today.

7 Macht Nichts, trained by Eastern Equine
Like plenty of three year olds last year was in a big pile of ability that saw them all beating each other throughout the year. It seemed this ones
turn came in the HAW Gold Cup when he got up late to score a famous quarter length win. Although only his fourth win from 13 starts it wasnt a big
surprise after close up finishes in The Travers, LA Derby and AR Derby. His ability is there for all to see but that last win has got him on a tough mark
here and he will do very well to deliver a first grade one win since teh Front Runner as a two year old. His works are on the money though and if you
like him there arent too many negatives to put you off.

8 Pinnacle West, trained by Pan Farms
Another one of the pile of three year olds from last season it may be a case of just waiting to see which ones have improved. Pan Farms bought last
seasons Risen Star winner and TC contender after a largely dissapointing season. The $650 paid just two weeks ago looks a tad on the high side but
this trainer is not known fro throwing money away so i expect a bold run from him today. His works have been in the ball park and he gets in here with
joint bottom weight so his chnace is there for all to see.

9 In Control, trained by Mb Stables
HRP’s champion trainer got no favours from teh draw in this race but brings a very progressive four year old who is better than his form suggests. Trained
for the TC chase he missed out after placing in three graded stakes and went on to two more big race checks after the KYD had past. Like many of the stables
horses he was relegated to the second string and took three very easy wins in statebred races before ending his season on New Years Eve. His works are slick
and he has no weight so despite a nasty draw he could run a big race today.

10 Salt Lake City, trained by Boomtown
Last but not least is the last of the pile of ex three year olds who contetsted some of the bets races in his age group last year. A winner of teh Rebel he
took his chance in the KYD but failed to quicken from teh stalk eventually finishing eleventh. He never really got his act together after that race, a
victim of all teh three year olds being of similar ability. He ran a nice second in The Prince Of Wales and made his seasonal debut in an SA overnight
where he showed his well being with a last gasp win. I have always liked this horse but feel that over this trip on this surface he is vulnerable.

SUMMARY

There seems to be two stand outs in this race, Niagra of course and Stranger. Stranger may just have the upper hand if things go his way but the fan club will
be out in force for the old champ Niagra and i wouldnt want to put too much money against him especially as he seems to have escaped with a very fair weight.



Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES