The Smith Handicap – Grade III
AQU   Race #3   1 3/8m   Turf   Graded Stake
Purse $250.000  For Three Year Olds And Upward.

1 Party Prep, trained by Kopites
Although this one carries top weight as usual the spread of weights make this a mockery of a handicap and he only has to give a maximum of two pounds to the other runners. Claimed back in May he has been conservatively raced over the years so is relatively unexposed. He won the Louisville Handicap straight after the claim and ran well in the Wise Dan before picking up his second claim of the year this time moving to Kopites Stable. He didnt run too badly to be fifth in the AP St Legar in his only start for the new trainer and whilst he isnt the quickest around he does plug on over these long trips and must have a chance of at least some of the purse money.

2 Full Speed Ahead, trained by Night Rider Stables
Despite far better form than Party Prep he carries one pound less which whilst strange must make him a big hope. Although he hasnt won yet this year he has amassed a pretty good EPR finishing third in the Grade One Manhattan Handicap and placing at both grade two and three as well. He tends to get a little behind early on in his races and will need to lay up a bit closer or hope for a break neck pace to bring him into it late.

3 Tundra Kenny, trained by Australia Wide
The four year old curse has struck this one pretty well as he has no wins from seven this year after winning last years BC Turf. It seems ridiculous that he has got in here with just 119 Lbs with that BC win on his record but whatever flawed and crazy system HRP uses for handicapping has given him a huge chance of breaking his seasons duck. He was taken to the dirt mid season and ran a great third in the CT Classic but has since struggled to find his form. He hinted at a return to form in the Knickerbocker Handicap last time and the four year olds are a bit more competitive at this time of year so i expect him to run a big race today.

4 Valar Morghulis, trained by Gdp Inc
Another four year old who has struggled to beat the curse this year he ran his best race of the year last time out finishing a length ahead of Tundra Kenny in that Knickerbocker Handicap. For some bizarre reason he leaps in the weights today and whilst he is still entitled to run a big race he may find it tough to confirm placings with the Australia Wide charger.

5 Play Ball, trained by Mb Stables
To really ram home the stupid handicapping system we have this three year old who has to give weight to a BC winner with nearly $3000 in earnings. Crazy as it may seem this winner of one solitary statebred stakes race and a couple of low level allowances is not only the top weight but the fastest worker in the field. Maybe the HRP handicapper does his job in the mornings rather than the afternoons. Either way this one could still win, not least because he is trained by Mb Stables who has mopped up so many stakes races again this year.

6 Beav Barley, trained by Oval Express Farms
Gets bottom weight and is far from a forlorn hope. Yet to gain a pay check to cover expenses this year he hasnt been beaten far in his five starts and has some OK form for a bottom weight. What is more significant is he has worked very well since his last start and that fact alone may show enough improvement to get him into the picture.

7 El Gran Black, trained by Luz International
Though this three year old probably has the worst form in the race he did catch the eye when a fast finishing fourth in the Knickerbocker Handicap last time. The handicapper has given him an extra pound for finishing behind Tundra Kenny which is yet another example of crazy handicapping. That aside he has been working very quick and if this race was decided on works alone he would be right up in the first two.

SUMMARY
I wont go on about the crazy handicapping in this race but i will mention that i wonder whether the computer knows something we dont. The two three year olds shouldnt stand a chance but if the program thinks they are worth top weight and second top weight then it makes me very wary. Tundra Kenny should win this doing cart wheels with just 119 Lbs but a BC win is much the same as an allowance win these days so there are plenty of chances to see him beaten again.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES