BC Juvenile Fillies – Grade I [KYO]
11/5/2016 16:45 11/1/2016 3:00 SA Race #11 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.
1 I Figured, trained by Sanny Village
After this tall filly by Pistol Whip took her maiden by a very easy four lengths and then battled gamely to win the grade two Sorrento Stakes with Laffin Juliet behind, the sky looked the limit for her. In her last start she was upped in trip to contest the Pocahontas and this was her first real test against a big field. Drawn well enough she traveled well a few lengths off the lead just worse than midpack and whilst she made a bit of ground she could still only manage seventh in the end. These two year old races can be a but hit and miss though and as she only finished two lengths off the winner she cant be written off for that effort. I think she needs to get up on the pace to have any chance but with only fair work times i am not sure she will stay the trip if she does that.
2 Rollergirl, trained by Jerry Garcia Racing
This daughter of Condottieri has been in all the right races and it looks like her trainer has been playing with her running styles. If the tactics are right today she will have a great chance from an ideal draw. A winner on debut she hasnt been out of black type since dead heating in the DMR Debutante before a huge effort in the Frizette last time. Flying late she was only beaten a length by Sunita Bonita in that last start and dead heated with Snow peak before that so clearly has the Mb Stables runners in her sights. So much will depend on how the race itself plays out today but if everything goes right for this filly she has a winning chance.
3 Seven Cedars, trained by Smokey Stover
She had a quiet start to her career winning a couple of races down the grades before being let loose on black type company. She ran a creditable race in the mud to be second in the AP Washington Lassie but then ran a career best race in The Alcibiades in her last start going down by a length to Blackberry. She ran a loose stalk from a similar draw that day and stuck on well and a repeat should see her in contention for a long way. There is no doubting her stamina which could be a key here and her mile work times are fairy good. She wont be amongst the favourites but she does have a good chance of grabbing something out of the race.
4 Laffin Juliet, trained by Delta Farms
She has been in all the top races but has been seen on both surfaces and over all sorts of trips so it is hard to really weigh her up. She started off her career by building nicely to win the Debutante and then tried to make all in the Sorrento Stakes eventually going down narrowly to I Figured. She disappointed in The Spinaway and was then switched to the turf to run a close third in the grade three Jessamine. An on pace type she may show up early on but will be hard pressed on this surface to see it through to the line.
5 Threat, trained by D J C Racing Stables
Ran a career best race to win The Adirondack racing through late to beat Blackberry. That was a big performance and she was strongly fancied to add the Pocahontas last time out over the extra trip. Drawn wide she was put in the stalk but failed to go with the pace of the race eventually whacking away for eighth but like so many of these races she wasnt beaten far enough to say she totally failed. Her mile works are strong and a better draw may see her take up a midpack spot in this race which will certainly suit her better. A decent chance for this popular trainer.
6 Hateuscuztheyaintus, trained by Night Mare Racing
Made a name for herself on the state bred scene dead heating for the CTBA Stakes after taking a statebred maiden. She then went to the DMR Debutante where she weakened from the lead to be third but did better when upped in trip to get second in the Mazarine BC Stakes last time out. She has a punchers chance in this but will have to raise her game to be in contention.
7 Blackberry, trained by Our Athletes
After a strong finishing second in the Adirondack behind Threat her career became a tale of two draws as the glitch in the HRP draw system was shown in its worst light. Drawn 12 in the Pocahontas she got catapulted to the lead and weakened into a poor eleventh but then came out over the same trip in the Alcibiades to storm home from a better draw and beat Seven Cedars and Guest Of Honor. I think we can write off one of that Pocahontas effort and with this draw i expect her to be midpack and finishing strongly today. A winning chance if things go her way.
8 Sunita Bonita, trained by Mb Stables
With a sub 1.37 mile work and four wins in a row culminating in The Frizette you have to expect this one to start the race favourite. She was perfectly ridden to score in that grade one and gets the same rider today and you have to think a repeat would see her go very close. If i had to find any chinks in this ones armour it would be the fact that she has always had an inside draw and being in the squeeze box today she may find her small stature is tested in getting herself a decent position. Its hard to fault her beyond that.
9 Girl With Red Shoes, trained by John Henry
Bought for just fifty dollars she has been brilliantly managed by the new kid on the block to win her last two starts impressively. Her win in the grade three Matron last time was very impressive coming from off the speed for an easy two length win. There is no doubting her ability but looking at her 1.38 mile work time i do doubt her ability to get a true run mile and sixteenth and that may be the thing that beats her in the end. Four wins in a row cant be faulted though and if John Henry can find the magic instruction she would be in with a great chance.
10 Snow Peak, trained by Mb Stables
Unbeaten in three with two grade one wins it is very hard to find fault with her apart from an awkward draw. She dead heated in The Debutante after winning her debut maiden and that was with Rollergirl who was far more experienced at the time. She was finishing a little stronger that day and showed she was a true router in her last start in the Chandelier Stakes. Coming from off the pace again she mowed them down taking the race by just under a length in a fast time. Its hard to separate her from her stable companions but she is clearly rapidly improving and could easily form a famous clean sweep for Mb Stables.
11 High Precious, trained by Eastern Equine
Looked very good in her first three races making it three from three with a win in the Schuylerville with amongst others Threat well behind. Ridden with a bit more restraint in her first attempt at a trip in The Pocahontas she finished strongly to be fifth beaten just a length. Surprisingly after that good run over a mile plus she was brought back to sprinting to run second to Girl With Red Shoes in The Matron and was beaten fair and square that day. A lot will depend on how she starts from the draw today, if she is thrown onto the speed she will struggle to beat a good few but if taken back she could finish strongly for a minor placing.
12 Toleration, trained by Mb Stables
Was terribly placed to win her maiden at lowly LAD by eight lengths and then just scraped home in a MTH allowance next time. She looked like she was crying out for a longer trip in both of those races and got that in the Pocahontas last time when she caused a bit of a shock by getting home by a half length. Her works arent quite as good as her stable companions but she has the form to get into the race and possibly make her trainer the first ever to secure a first second and third in a BC race.
13 Que Seras Creeps, trained by D J C Racing Stables
She was very good in taking the Spinaway by an impressive two lengths and considering she didnt seem to act on the off track ran very well to be a closing third in The Frizette from a wide draw. She gets a bad draw again today and will have to stay a bit closer to the pace to have a chance at negotiating the field but this is an under rated filly and may turn out to be the best chance of over turning an Mb Stables dominance.
14 All Fueled Up, trained by Yankee Doodle Stable
Gets the car park draw but is by no means a forlorn hope if her trainer can find some way of negating the disadvantage. She was very good in The Chandelier keeping on strongly to be second and her works arent too bad but with a large dose of luck needed from this gate you would struggle to have too much confidence.
SUMMARY
As ever this is a very tough race to call. The Mb Stables runners have dominated in lead up races and he could easily end up with a 1,2,3 but i am liking Que Seras Creeps and Blackberry at longer odds to get in amongst them. Good luck to all.
Categories: BC 2015-17, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
