OBrien Stakes – Grade II [BC]
DMR Race #7 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
This race at grade two looks to launch one of these runners into the BC and it has the honor to have dual winner Alpha Ultimo on his list of previous winners. Here is how they line up for this years competition:
1 Hang Around Nakamura Stables Juarez N
Taking the ace draw is this four year old who seems equally happy over sprint or long distances and that can be a real advantage over this rather unique trip of seven furlongs. Bought from Mb Stables for $120 last year he has run well at graded level since winning the grade three Cartier Stakes and placing second in the grade two Nerud last time. He certainly seems to run better from an inside gate so that is a positive and he has good balance through his work times recording a 1.10 for six furlongs and 1.36 and 2 for the mile. A good chance in a tight field.
2 Shaky Sight Gdp Inc Silvera Ru
The draw that everyone wants goes to a horse that hasn’t got an obvious chance of winning so that certainly brings this five year old into the reckoning. Claimed last year for just $19 he has been steadily improving and that came to a head last time when he was second in the Vigil Stakes last time. I am not sure he is good enough to win this at this stage in his career but he is in with a punchers chance.
3 Serious Havoc Angelos Stable Van Dyke D
A fair sprinter who has some black type to his name with his most noted performance probably coming in The Kellys Landing which importantly was over this trip. His work times are in the ball park and whilst he isn’t one of the more exposed names in this field the good draw and his liking for this trip brings him into this.
4 Milford Sound Mwn Racing Ortiz I Jr
This five year old is named after one of the most stunning places in the world but whilst he has promised so much in his home work he has yet to really live up to those on the tracks. Two efforts at graded level this year have been pretty disappointing but he has won a couple of ungraded races and one feels that if he can get his act together he could easily run a huge race in a race like this.
5 One Shot Kill Fractious Stein J
Another that has the work times of a champion and the race form of a pretty ordinary horse, I would write off his last start because he really hates an off track but he was pretty good in a small PRX race before that. Another that if he runs to his works he could win.
6 Twilight Flame Mb Stables Geroux F
Whilst some have the race times to win this and some have the race course performance to win this very few have both like this one. It goes without saying that he is from Mb Stables and represents yet another that may end up in the BC come November from this yard. Fourth in the grade one Carter Handicap over this trip he was also third in the grade one Metropolitan Handicap recently so must rate as the form horse for this race. His work times are right up there too making him the complete package and one of my choices for the win.
7 Puppet Master Spankys Barn Santana R Jr
Well if Twilight Flame gets the nod on form and work times then this one has to be at least as good if not better. The stable names are different and that may end up being the main difference making this a very interesting contest between these two sprinters drawn alongside each other. Beaten just a neck when third in The Vanderbilt Handicap last time that was his first sprint for a long time and in fact he had run second over 12 furlongs just a few months before proving once again that trip means very little at HRP if a horse has the class gene. His sprint work times are super slick and he makes up my other choice for possible winner.
8 Saturday Khartoum Rousee Smith M E
This admirable seven year old may have seen better days but he is still a decent sprinter and the winner of five stakes races over his long career. It is worth giving him one more shot here as he could run well at his best, i suppose the question is, how likely is he to be at his best. Well the trainer will have him ready but he may be hard pressed to beat the two inside him.
9 Red Cup Our Athletes Pyfer J
Another that is struggling to recapture his best form he would certainly be good enough at his best and he is working as well as ever so it is not beyond the realms of reality that he will win today. He started off as a TC prospect running in the 2019 KYD and running a close fifth in the BC Dirt Mile that same year. He then switched to turf and took the grade one Highlander before running fourth in the BC Turf Sprint in 2020. Now he is going for a trifecta that would be astounding in real life but here at HRP it is not so unusual in trying to get into his third BC in a row over different trips and surfaces. His recent form has been uninspiring though and that is the main concern.
10 Sweet Sweet Sweet Night Rider Stables Bravo J
This five year old is a 12 race winner and took the Vigil Stakes last time putting him at the best point in his career so far. His works are in the ball park and he should handle the wide gate OK as long at the race engine is kind to him. An off track would further enhance his chances but i would expect a good effort regardless of the going.
11 A Beagle Named Boo John Henry Fuentes Ru
This will be his third terrible draw in a row and i feel that his fair efforts in the Nerud and Crosby may well be duplicated today. Certainly a chance on his win in the Kona Stakes but he will need luck from out here.
12 Commanding Know Delta Farms Hernandez J J
Any chance he did have have probably gone with the car park draw. generally running in lower grade he has won 11 races, almost a 50% win record so he knows how to win he just has to try and do it against the best field he has faced for a long time from a terrible draw.
SUMMARY
For me this looks a straight race between Twilight Flame and Puppet Master and one of those two should certainly end up winning. Its a tough call for third but maybe Hang Around has the most upside and would be worth putting in to a box for the Exacta.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
