The AR Derby – Grade I [KYD]
OP Race #3 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,250.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Top Gun D J C Racing Stables Saez L
The thing i like about this stable is that they always give a horse every opportunity to shine and today this gelding who failed in both the Grey Stakes and Lewis Stakes gets another chance where many stables may have given up. Drawn the ace he gets his chance today and to be fair to him his works are not that far off being good enough here. I cannot tip him to win but hope he runs a big race for the owner.
2 Sweep The Soviet Arindel Court J K
Arindel is quickly becoming a top line stable and the fact that they match the three runners from Mb Stables today really pushes that home. The young pretender definitely got the better of the draw monster in that battle though with this one being the best drawn. Failing in both his route races and running mostly in sprints suggest the game is afoot here and it will be very interesting to see the two big stables tactics in this race. As for his chances, well with one win from eleven there isn’t much on the form front but he has a sharp six furlong work time and his mile work was pretty good too so i wouldn’t be entirely writing him off.
3 Mickey South Shore Stables Jaramillo E
proved that he could transfer his turf form to the dirt with a gallant dead heat win in the Gotham after previously winning black type on the grass. His winning time in the Gotham was strong and he saw the mile out really well and gets the advantage of a much better draw that Dwindle that he dead heated with that day. He will be one of the fancies here on that effort but has his work cut out to beat the filly right next to him.
4 Shadow Police Smokey Stover Ferrer J C
The fillies created quite the stir with some of the new stables when they started winning these KYD qualifiers but since then it has become a little clearer that there are just a few fillies in this crop that just seem to be potential superstars. It has to be said that if this filly can take this race today after taking the Lecompt and The Rebel she would become the pre race favorite for the KYD. The reason i am so bullish that she may be a once in twenty year filly is that in the Rebel last time she raced from gate ten, gave them a start and then ran past Individuation like he wasn’t there. We saw the value of that win when Individuation then came out and trounced them in the SUN Derby by a very easy four lengths making this the most exciting filly we have seen in recent years. This being HRP of course anything could happen but if form runs and the draw turns out t be as important as normal then i can’t see them beating her again today.
5 Bladamiro Arindel Pereira T J
The second stable runner he is working like stakes winner but running like an allowance winner. His gelding operation in February has made his works even better but he flopped from a wide draw in an optional allowance last time and that sort of thing can be a red flag with these three year olds. If he can run to his works he can be given a chance but its a stretch to see him on bare form bothering the best of these.
6 Loser Bay Gdp Inc Gonzalez Ru
Second three times in a row in maiden company he finally broke through on turf last time which is probably not exactly a great advert for his chances today. Not a bad sort but this may just come a little early in his career.
7 Puissance de La Mer Big Guns Stables Espinoza V
Won his debut and then an allowance in his first two races but then got a little lost in the Fountain Of Youth when pretty much a no show but that was run at a fiery early pace and things have been odd in big fields recently so it may pay to forgive him that. I think we will see a better effort today but he will have to be a lot better to bother a couple here. An each way shot and a possible dark horse.
8 Fedorov Arindel Alvarado F T
On his tenth start he finally won his maiden on turf last time but it is a stretch to see how that translates to winning one of the major TC qualifying races. Having said that the trainer has three starters and is one of the up and coming stars of the game so maybe they know something that i cannot see.
9 Mr Mojo Risin Angelos Stable Gaffalione T
It is quite ‘HRP’ that i have written about nine runners in this race so far and the fastest mile work i have come across so far belongs to this maiden ! Bought for $125 after a poor debut run he then ran better to be third in an AQU maiden last time when a never dangerous third. The works and the form just don’t match so it is clear there is far more than a maiden in this one future and plenty of maidens have won stakes races at HRP. A very interesting entry and one you have to go all in with faith rather than coming up with any hard and fast reason to bet on him.
10 Karloffs Monster TwinTowersRacing Davis D
The second filly in the race and to be fair to the girls probably the second best in the race. She won the Suncoast but then her trainer took a left turn when fillies started winning TC qualifiers and she ran a real nice race to be second in the TAM Derby behind the useful looking All Take. This trainer certainly knows how to win big races and this would be a huge feather in their cap if they could pull this one out of the bag. Her works are just as good as shadow Police so you have to give her a serious chance.
11 Blasphemy Mb Stables Cedillo A
The trainer will be spitting feathers as their three entries all get a wide draws. This son of Apples To oranges gets the best draw of the three but will have to return to his juvenile form to be a real winning chance here. He took the Iroqouis last year and then followed up with a close seventh in the BC Juvenile and at that point looked just the sort to make his mark in these races. However things haven’t gone so well since and he was gelded after a poor effort in the Lecompt, but then he ran in The San felipe and we didn’t learn too much as it was an odd sort of race. Stalking a 45 and 1 first half mile certainly didn’t give him much chance in that race but i do feel like this is his D Day and he will have no more chances.
12 Demon Wood Duck Stables Garcia Mar
When he won the San Vicente he looked like a gelding that was going places but then he was a bit of a flop in The Rebel and the jury is still out about his chances at this level over a route trip. If you took the Rebel out he would be a real fancy here and the stable will have learned something after that race but he gets a rotten draw to get back on track in this race and the racing Gods will have to be on his side. The works are there and the form isn’t bad it is just how well his trainer can make this draw work for him.
13 Rogue Commando Mb Stables Franco M
Second to Demon in the San Vicente he was drawn wide and made a lot of ground that day and may well have won with an extra furlong. Wide forward a few weeks and he became a front runner to run second in the Fountain Of Youth after setting a breakneck pace. With the game being a bit of a click fest at the moment the stable will be looking to find the perfect instruction here after those two extremes but he once again gets a rotten draw which of course will make it very hard to get it right. Maybe second or third best on form with works on the board it will be down to the magic man to extract one of his runners from the draw and this may be the one.
14 Dwindle Mb Stables Juarez N
I have a feeling that this one is flying a little under the radar as he has won the Nashua, The Remsen and the Gotham so as far as form for these types of races go you don’t get much better than that. Of course the car park is the biggest problem here but having three wide draws may actually help the stable get at least two of them racing in a good enough spot to be in contention at the end.
SUMMARY
If you weigh up the form and the draw then it is hard to get past Shadow Police in this race but there are a good few in this race who don’t look up to this grade so it may all come down to luck and instructions with what happens to the principal runners. You have to like Dwindle and Rogue commando as dangers being from Mb Stables but the chances don’t end there with Mickey and Karloffs Master being a good trip away from winning too.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
