Muniz Memorial Handicap – Grade II
FG Race #10 1 1/8m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
The one thing we have come to know about handicaps at HRP is that one pound is like carrying a freight train and great horses carrying a few pounds more than claimers can suddenly turn into jelly legged old folk in the Olympic 100 meters. With only three pounds between them a difference even i could cope with you would imagine this would simply go to the best horse in the race but think again because there is a real opportunity here to find some nice odds for horses you wouldn’t normally consider. The problem is of course that some of the top stables have worked this out and the top three trainers in this race have all squeezed very good horses into the race with bottom weight. So maybe the secret is out and betting value went with it, but lets see if we can find the diamond in the rough and some good odds.
Here is how they line up.
1 That Funky Monkey Maxmillion Farm Davis D
The turf king is well known for turning up in races like this and supplying an unlikely winner so any runner from the yard that is in a turf route should be taken seriously. Off bottom weight with the ace draw this four year old must be taken seriously even though his form doesn’t really measure up to some of these. Probably his best form for a race like this would be his fair fifth in the HOL Derby last year and as that came at the end of his three year old campaign it is fair to say that he had begun to show some late improvement. In his two efforts this year he has carried that on and may just be one of those that offer nice odds for a light weight with a good draw.
2 Darth Invader Diablo Diablo Bahen S R
With three runs already this year the four year old is hard fit and there is certainly plenty to like about his efforts to date. The winner of the AP Classic last year he looked like he was ready to take the next step on seasonal debut when a strong third in the San Gabriel but then faced a tough draw in the Pegasus World Turf Cup. He was in the race for a long way but inevitably faded at the end but has since bounced back for a game win at overnight level. There is a lot to like about his chances with the perfect draw and a 1.34 flat work at PRX recently.
3 Transit Hit Maxmillion Farm Fuentes Ru
Lightly raced and improving he is hard to assess in this race. His two wins came at overnight level and he is not only drawn well but comes from the Turf Kings stable so the alarm bells start tingling when i start to think he has no chance. On form this may come a bit soon but this is just the sort of unlikely winner that the stable has produced before of races like this.
4 Ahimsa Nakamura Stables Carrasco V R
Another that on the face of it looks a little out of his depth but some strong works and a win in 1.33 flat at TAM last time suggest that with bottom weight he wont be without a chance. A few of the likely favorites are drawn outside which is another plus for him but it is hard to come up with a convincing enough argument to make him my top choice.
5 Hollywood Niner Nolespan Racing Court J K
This has been a solid horse at lower grade but so far has struggled when upped to stakes level racing. There is a fourth in the Man O War last year on his record but it is hard to see a way he can beat a few of these. A seasonal debut third in the San Marcos will have convinced his trainer to throw him in here and they have been known to bring home the bacon more than once.
6 Koda Estero Farms Hernandez R M
Has a bit to prove at this level but on his close third in the Pan American last year is not without a hope. He was a long way behind Hollywood Niner in the San Marcos on seasonal debut and it is hard to see how he can turn that round.
7 Dangerous Chai Mo Mentum Farm Gaffalione T
Took a long while to break maidens and eventually did that in a maiden claimer last year but seemed to find some confidence from that win and has been improving ever since. His best form seemed to be in sprints but as we know trip means very little at HRP and he has shown enough in routes recently to suggest he can be a part of the finish here. A nice if a little one paced fourth in the Canadian Turf last time he has plenty of ticks in boxes to be a top contender.
8 Aerialist Mb Stables Jaramillo E
There is plenty to be interested about in this son of Decima and many of those things are what makes this game so baffling to most people. Working 1.36 flat on the dirt puts him in BC Classic territory, working 57 and 1 for the turf 5 puts him in BC Turf Sprint territory and his 1.09 and 2, 6 furlong work is one of the fastest in this field. You would certainly expect more than a maiden claiming win and a little optional claimer win from works like that but no what we have here is very ordinary form.
Being a son of Decima he may just grow and extra leg and go and win the BC Turf but nothing he has shown so far suggests that that is going to happen. He could easily win this pulling up or finish last under a drive, take your pick.
9 Multiple Shadows Our Athletes Velazquez J R
The three best horses in the race are not only handicapped with weight but also the draw and those two things will make it pretty tough for them. This is the first of the big three and he is gifted his handicap thanks to a game win in the Wise Dan and then a fine effort in the Sword Dancer last year. His form tailed off at the end of the year but his seasonal debut saw a good effort in the FG Stakes where he went on pace from a wide draw and battled on very gamely for second.
He is there with a good chance but there are a few things he has to beat before he beats a horse in this race.
10 Atomic Eclipse La Canada Racehorses Gutierrez Mario
Six wins from fifteen starts look pretty good in a race like this and add to that a very impressive win in the Thunder Road in 1.32 and 2 last month and you have an improving sort who could be anything by the end of the year. Top weight and a wide draw wont make it easy but if he runs out this trip as fast as we know he can then he will be tough to beat.
11 Lets Do It Big Boy RNP Stables McCarthy T
There is no doubt he is the most achieved and best horse in the race the question is can he beat the draw and the weight? Four times a graded stakes winner his two runs this year suggest the seven year old has lost none of his zip. He was very good in the Fort Lauderdale when winning by a half and then ran a cracker in the Pegasus World Turf Cup to be fourth this year so far and the only real question for me is can he overcome the double whammy of draw and weight.
12 Trumbull Valley Mb Stables – Scratch –
13 Real Pretty Ferro Maze Stables Alvarado J
Gets in thanks to a scratch and will give his owner a thrill. I am not sure he is ready for this level but hope he is there for a long way.
SUMMARY
Well as a said earlier it is not often the best horse wins a handicap and the best horses here have more than weight to worry about. I hope Lets Do It Big Boy can pull off the win but i am going for Aerialist for no other reason than his crazy fast works that must result in a decent win eventually.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
