August 25, 2016

Named for one of the greatest mares to ever look through a bridle, the Grade I Personal Ensign holds its spot at SAR since she won so many amazing races in New York, including the Grade I Whitney over champion Gulch. Won in the past by the likes of Darling Harbour, Bentenichi, Mrs Bombastic, it was taken by Lullaby Maker Tf last year and she is back to defend her title against nine top rivals including a host of three-year-olds as they look to claim victory for the third time in the last four editions of this $750.000 event.

1-Lullaby Maker Tf (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Lullaby Maker Tf only has a single win in five starts this campaign and the reigning champion has not been herself as of late, losing the Phipps after holding a big lead before failing to sustain her bid going long in the DEL Handicap. She was dominant in these kinds of races last season but has seemingly lost a bit of her step as a four-year-old and as others move forward, she will need to draw on her experience to hit the board while hoping to regain some of that nine-furlong glory she earned in her championship run.

Analysis-Champ is not the same filly we saw last year

Fair Odds-8/1

2-Princess Legion (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Aml Racing)

On again, off again all season long, Princess Legion found her best stride late in the ONT Matron and just ran down the leader as the odds-on favourite but now takes a huge leap into Grade I company and does not look to be fast enough to compete with the best three-year-olds, let alone her older rivals. Her speed marks have improved in nearly every start but have never reached the level of some in this field and while she does like to sit closer to the pace, this is a tiring distance and she will have to overcome many of the closers to hit the board.

Analysis-Does not look fast enough on paper

Fair Odds-15/1

3-Danzing Logic (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Kopites)

Danzing Logic is winless in seven starts dating back to her two-year-old campaign but still garnered a $150.000 purchase from owner Kopites and is entered against the very best here with hopes of lasting the nine-furlongs. She has been a longshot in virtually every one of her races and was 170-1 when lackluster at BEL last time; there is little to suggest things will change and she will be a huge price once again.

Analysis-Not a factor

Fair Odds-50/1

4-Shake It Off (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Australia Wide)

Lightly raced but extremely high on talent, Shake It Off is a multiple stakes winner who scored in the Mother Goose at BEL in early July and while she did capitalize on another blistering pace set-up, she has also proven her might in races like the GP Oaks and KY Oaks and cannot be overlooked. A solid workout at GP probably shook off some of the cobwebs and her 101-speed rating is one of the best in the field; all in all, a new prospect for a filly who will be undervalued off her perfect pace set-up last time but still has some talent to fall back on.

Analysis-Could be a contender, even with a different rabbit up front

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Technology Sweep (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-The Sidley Stud)

Two big wins at MTH against older runners send Technology Sweep to SAR for the Personal Ensign and while she might riding a winning streak into the toughest test of her career, this might be a step too far and she will have to improve in a big way to upend the best. She certainly looks to enjoy these types of distances and has been working well but owner The Sidley Stud is looking for their first Grade I win and might find it tough here; she is a filly with potential but might have been better suited to another race as she continues to move forward.

Analysis-Big jump in class might be too much

Fair Odds-10/1

6-Donna Chang (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Donna Chang stretched out from seven- to ten-furlongs for the DEL Handicap and just missed after taking the late lead; now she cuts back to middle ground and might have enough of a forward running style to upset this field in a big way. The winner at DEL will most likely be the favourite in here but is likely to bounce and although she has not raced at this level consistently, she seems to be moving in right direction like so many others, with the opportunity to make her mark in this Win-And-You’re-In event.

Analysis-Just missed last time but finds a better distance here

Fair Odds-8/1

7-Quiet Elegance (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Quiet Elegance finished behind her stablemate at DEL last time but knows how to win races and might find an easier trip up front, leading some of believe this is your biggest wire-to-wire threat going 1 1/8 miles. She nearly stole the Santa Margarita at SA and is a winner at SAR in allowance company, and second in the Fleet Indian this same weekend in 2015, so she knows the course and how to handle the tough final furlong and that could prove the difference going for a $750.000 purse.

Analysis-Knows the layout and has the speed to spare

Fair Odds-5/1

8-The Hanging Tree (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Grade I Acorn winner The Hanging Tree had the CCA Oaks in the palm of her hand but gave it up in the last strides to finish second for the sixth time in nine career starts; that kind of tough loss has been her downfall all season long and if she gives her stablemate any pace pressure, both could be in for a long journey. A change in jockey could lead to a change in tactics and she has had some incredible workouts since being purchased; her $800.000 price is nothing to sneeze at and she earned a lot of that back over this same course, making her a logical but tough to back for the win with her record.

Analysis-Routinely second and faces a very tough field

Fair Odds-4/1

9-Vertigineux (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

A Grade I field at HRP would not be complete with one entrant switching from turf to dirt and that is the case with Vertigineux, a one-time winner this year who was not good enough in the NY or the Diana but hopes to get a better scenario with an outside post on the main track. She has had good dirt form in the past but never at this level and her only start on the main track recently was a tough effort in the Allaire Distaff; all in all, not the profile of a serious contender against this level.

Analysis-Moves back to the dirt but that angle will not be enough

Fair Odds-25/1

10-Chili King (Six-year-old black mare / Owner-Sanny Village)

The grande dame of the Personal Ensign is the most logical favourite and in Chili King, you have a multiple Grade I winner who has won at SAR in the Alabama, raced in this event the past two years with a third and a seventh, and comes in off a 45-1 shocker in the DEL Handicap against two of the better choices. Her third start of the year could prove to be her best and she enters for an owner on a real tear as of late and while she got the rail last time, the outside draw will still allow her to sit in midpack and get clear running room late, if she can handle the nine-pound weight increase appropriately.

Analysis-Big chance off her last score at DEL
Fair Odds-7/2

Overall

You know that the Grade I Personal Ensign is going to be a tough race when the reigning winner and divisional champion is left out of the top four but you have to look at current form and while no one pegged Chili King to upset at DEL last time, you have to be on the bandwagon here with an outside draw and plenty of experience in her corner. The Hanging Tree is a win-shy type who knows how to handle the pressure and should appreciate this course and distance the most while stablemate Quiet Elegance always seems to be there but seems to come up just short at the end and might be better suited to sitting quietly and making a late push for a placing.

Prediction

Win-Chili King (7/2)

Place-The Hanging Tree (4/1)

Show-Quiet Elegance (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES